The ALCS kicks off tonight, with the Astros hosting the Red Sox in a rematch of the 2018 ALCS. The NLCS opens tomorrow, with the Braves hosting the Dodgers in a rematch of last year's dramatic seven game classic.
Even as a die hard baseball fan, I understand the arguments against baseball in the regular season. The games do take too long. There are a lot of meaningless games by the time the calendar hits August and September. MLB does a poor job of marketing its stars to the public.
But come October, those arguments lose credibility. There were two intense Wild Card games to start the playoffs, all four Division Series were interesting, and now we're on to the Final Four.
The intensity of these games is special. I bring my 7 year old son, Cormack, to a lot of games. He's been to Fenway Park at least 20 times in his young life. He loves baseball and loves going to the games.
His first playoff game was the Red Sox-Yankees Wild Card game. He was warned of the intensity, especially with the Boston-New York element added in to the mix. He laughed it off, as sure of himself as a 7 year old can be.
Then we walked in to Fenway. The confidence melted. It was loud. It was intense.
Cormack was scared.
It took about an inning, but he recovered. He was cheering and yelling and screaming, along with the other 45,000 people (note: Fenway's capacity is 37,731 for baseball) who were in attendance.
It was the same for Game 4 of the ALDS against the Rays. Even without any real Tampa Bay fan presence, the place was loud. Cormack, now a veteran of playoff baseball, enjoyed himself. I'm hoping it will be the same on Monday when we attend Game 3 of the ALCS.
Enjoy these games. They are different. They are special.
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My initial instinct for the ALCS was to pick the Astros. As fun as this Red Sox team has been to follow this season, I saw the Astros as being slightly more talented and with home field advantage that would be enough to get to their third World Series in the last five years.
That pick has since changed. Why?
Lance McCullers.
The ace of the Astros pitching staff was called upon to close out the White Sox in Game 4 of the ALDS. Even as the Astros were cruising early in the game, McCullers looked uncomfortable on the mound. His control was not there, and he allowed five hits and three walks in the first four innings before coming out of the game.
After their 10-1 clinching win, which sent them to their fifth consecutive ALCS, the Astros said McCullers was suffering from forearm tightness. He is not on the roster for the ALCS.
Losing their ace at this point should be the difference between two teams that can really hit the ball and score runs. Houston led the American League with 863 runs. The Red Sox were not too far behind with 829 runs.
Boston certainly has their own pitching issues. Chris Sale, who returned from the Tommy John elbow surgery he had in May of 2020 in August, is still not back to the level that baseball fans expect. His last two starts - against the Nationals in the regular season finale and the Rays in Game 2 of the ALDS - both were disasters. The Red Sox are optimistic that he has worked out some command issues in his bullpen workouts. We shall see.
But Boston does have Nathan Eovaldi, the Game 2 starter, leading their staff. After McCullers, the Astros have a lot of questions and very few definitive answers.
The Astros will still be a tough team to knockout in a 7 game series, but a significant loss like McCullers at this stage may be too much for Houston to overcome against a potent Boston offense.
Red Sox in 6.
***
Both the Red Sox and Astros tweaked their rosters from the ALDS to the ALCS.
The Astros dropped McCullers and added starter Jake Odorizzi to replace him. They also dropped their third catcher, Garrett Stubbs, and added Blake Taylor to give themselves an additional left handed relief pitcher to matchup late in the game with the likes of Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, and Alex Verdugo.
The Red Sox dropped Matt Barnes, a 2021 All-Star closer, and added Hirokazu Sawamura. They also swapped out lefty reliever Austin Davis for lefty reliever Darwinzon Hernandez.
I thought the Red Sox might drop a pitcher and add speedy left handed hitting rookie outfielder Jarren Duran as a late game pinch running/defensive option but Alex Cora and Chaim Bloom opted to have additional pitching for the long series, especially with the prospect of playing three consecutive days when the series goes to Boston.
***
Another reason why I feel confident in Boston is their manager.
Alex Cora is one of the best in the business, which he proved in leading the Red Sox to the 2018 World Series title and in leading this 2021 team into the ALCS. His career playoff record is 15-4.
On the other side is veteran Dusty Baker. Baker has been managing since 1993 and the Astros are his fifth team, all of which have qualified at least once for the postseason. However, his playoff record is 34-38 and he lost in his only trip to the World Series in 2002.
Every edge matters at this point. Cora over Baker seems like an important edge for the Red Sox.
***
The ALCS will feature two teams with recent playoff history, having faced off in the 2017 ALDS and in the 2018 ALCS. They have also both enjoyed recent success, with the Astros winning the World Series in 2017 (and returning to the Fall Classic in 2019) and the Red Sox winning the World Series in 2018.
They also are part of baseball's biggest controversy since the steroid scandals that plagued the game at the start of the 21st Century.
The 2017 Astros championship was tainted by their sign stealing scheme that ultimately cost manager A.J. Hinch his job. The bench coach of that 2017 Astros team was current Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who sat out the 2020 season as punishment for his role in the cheating scandal.
Part of the reason why I initially chose the Astros was the incentive to win the World Series and prove to their critics that the sign stealing was not the reason why they won it all in 2017. As a Patriots fan, I have seen how that motivation to prove the doubters wrong can drive a team to the top (although to defend the Patriots, there has never been the evidence against them that was as strong as it was against the Astros).
Great players like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman would love to cement their legacies and win a championship that does not have the stink of a cheating scandal. That motivation may just be enough to win the A.L. Pennant over the Red Sox.
***
The Braves are major underdogs in the NLCS against the Dodgers.
But they may just mess around and claim their first N.L. Pennant since 1999, a year after losing in the NLCS to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers.
This Braves team was not supposed to be here this year. Atlanta's All-Star outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr., was lost for the season to injury on July 10. On August 1, the Braves found themselves sporting a 52-55 record and were in third place in the NL East, five games behind the first place Mets.
A month later, the Braves were on top of the division and on their way to the National League playoffs.
How did that happen?
They traded for Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall at the end of July. All three contributed greatly to a Braves offense that already had pop from Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley. Over the last two months of the season (55 games) they hit 90 home runs and scored 283 runs.
Atlanta's pitching will not remind anyone of the Greg Maddux-Tom Glavine-John Smoltz glory days of the 1990's, when the Braves played in every NLCS between 1991-1999. However the quartet of Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and Drew Smyly posted a 3.54 ERA this year and their bullpen - a weak link for most of the season - looked great against the Brewers in the Division Series.
The biggest advanatges the Braves have going into the NLCS is home field advantage and the Dodgers having just one day to recover from their Division Series slugfest with the Giants. The Dodgers are the defending champions and are the current favorites to become the first team since the Yankees of 1998-2000 to win consecutive World Series for a reason. They have a great offense and great pitching.
But what if the Braves can catch them tired in Game 1 tomorrow? And then steal Game 2?
The best storylines remaining for the World Series would be a Dodgers-Astros rematch from 2017 or a Dodgers-Red Sox rematch from 2018, with the added kicker of Mookie Betts coming back to Fenway Park, but what if we open door number three and are given a Red Sox-Braves Fall Classic?
Braves in 6.
We'll see you on Tuesday, October 26 at Fenway Park for Game 1 of the World Series.
***
Enjoy Chris Sale tonight.
(If you don't have faith, what's the point of being a fan?)
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