Thursday, July 21, 2011

What to do Theo?

I have been going back and forth on what blockbuster move I want to see Theo Epstein execute at or before the July 31 trading deadline. 

A replacement for J.D. Drew in right field?  A starting pitcher to have in case Clay Buchholz' back does not fully recover?

The right field debate has seemed to settle itself but I'm not sure if Josh Reddick is the answer in right field.  Reddick has been mashing for over a month.  In 82 at-bats over 29 games - a pretty decent sample size - the 24-year-old is hitting .378, has an OBP of .432, an OPS of 1.102, 4 home runs, and 18 RBI.  All of these stats are way over his career averages and even though he has been a huge upgrade over Drew, there have to be concerns about his ability to continue this the rest of the year and in to the playoffs.  I'm not sure that a team with a serious chance at the World Series should gamble on a player like Reddick but that's why Epstein has two World Series rings and I write a blog.

My advice to Theo - and I'm sure he will consider this before making any deal - is to go after either Carlos Beltran or Hunter Pence to play right field and then use Reddick to acquire Derek Lowe to solidify their rotation.

Still with me?  I know it sounds unrealistic but the 2011 Red Sox are the top team in the American League and are one of the few teams who can say with a straight face that they expect to win the World Series so wisely using some of their better prospects to fill two areas of need.

Now that it looks like the Astos are willing to trade All-Star Hunter Pence, I think the Red Sox should get involved.  Maybe a package of catcher Ryan Lavarnway (who is killing it at Triple-A), outfielder Alex Hassan, and pitchers Felix Doubront and Kyle Weiland would get the deal done.  Due to the fact that Pence is under contract through 2013, it is more likely that the Red Sox would overpay for his services than those of Beltran, who can become a free agent after this season.

If the Astros are bluffing on moving Pence, Beltran would be a perfect backup option.  His price tag would be a little cheaper and would probably only cost the Red Sox one positional prospect and one pitching prospect.

Either way, adding Pence or Beltran would be a significant upgrade in right field for the Red Sox.  It would also signal the end of J.D. Drew's time in Boston.

(A side note on Drew.  He never lived up to the 5-year/$70-million deal he signed after the 2006 season but his grand slam in Game 6 of the 2007 ALCS gave the Red Sox life and helped them eventually win the World Series.  When the Sox do release him, I hope he puts off retirement for a few months and goes to Pittsburgh to help the Pirates.  It's very unlikely - and he has very little left to offer at this point - but if I'm blogging about the Red Sox adding either Hunter Pence or Carlos Beltran to play right field and then getting Derek Lowe to be the fifth starter, I can dream about Drew helping the Pirates make an improbable run at the playoffs, right?)

As for getting Derek Lowe, the Braves need offense and are could be interested in shedding Lowe's $15-million for 2012.  The Red Sox could ship Reddick to Atlanta, along with first base prospect Lars Anderson (who has no future in Boston with Adrian Gonzalez entrenched at first) in order to bring back Lowe, who was the winning pitcher in all three playoff series in 2004 for the Red Sox.

If the Red Sox could pull off both moves, their 25-man roster would look something like this.

Starting Lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. David Ortiz, DH
6. Hunter Pence/Carlos Beltran, RF
7. Carl Crawford, LF
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Jason Varitek, C
9. Marco Scutaro, SS

Bench: Varitek/Saltalamacchia, C; Darnell McDonald, OF; Yamaico Navarro, IF/OF; Drew Sutton, IF/OF

Starting Rotation: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Derek Lowe, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield

Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Dan Wheeler, Matt Albers, Alfredo Aceves, Franklin Morales, Andrew Miller

The Red Sox would also be able to replace Navarro or Sutton with Jed Lowrie when he returns from his shoulder injury and then move Wakefield in to the bullpen when Buchholz returns from his back injury.

In this "perfect world" scenario, the Red Sox would be the prohibitive favorite to win the 2011 World Series.

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