Red Sox vs. Orioles (July 20, 2011)

Red Sox (58-37) @ Baltimore Orioles (39-55)

SP - Andrew Miller (3-1, 5.68) vs. Jake Arrieta (9-6, 5.10)

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, DH
4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
5. Josh Reddick, RF
6. Carl Crawford, LF
7. Marco Scutaro, SS
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Yamaico Navarro, 3B

Three Strikes:

1. The end of Dan Shaughnessy's column this morning addressed the future of Jacoby Ellsbury, a potential free agent after the 2013 season.

Unlike Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Kevin Youkilis, Ellsbury does not seem likely to sign a long-term contract before he hits free agency.  Having Scott Boras as his agent is proof that he will test the free agent waters when he has the chance.

Seeing that the Red Sox have already invested $142-million in Carl Crawford, $154-million in Adrian Gonzalez, and will probably be looking at offering lucrative extensions to Pedroia, Lester, and Buchholz around that time, it is probable that Ellsbury will be playing elsewhere in 2014 unless the Red Sox decide to offer him a truck load of money.

Ellsbury is proving he is a big money player.  He was a key piece of the 2007 World Series team after being a midseason callup.  He posted a .353 BA, .902 OPS, and had 9 steals in 33 regular season games before hitting .438 in the World Series.  In his three healthy seasons (2008, 2009, 2011) he has shown consistent improvement at the plate (see below) and has improved his defense every year.

  2008: 145 games, .280 BA, .336 OBP, .729 OPS, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 50 SB (A.L. Leader)
  2009: 153 games, .301 BA, .355 OBP, .770 OPS, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 70 SB (A.L. Leader)
  2011: 93 games, .315 BA, .374 OBP, .870 OPS, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 28 SB (A.L. Leader)

When he does become a free agent, Ellsbury will have many deep pocketed suitors who will be willing to pay a premium price for one of baseball's best talents.

2. Andrew Miller has been pretty good in his fist five starts  but that looks like a product of facing three National League teams.

Courtesy of Peter Abraham's pregame notes, Miller is 1-1 with an 11.74 ERA in two starts against A.L. teams (which included a July 7 win over the Orioles) and is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA in three starts against N.L. teams.  He has not recorded one strikeout against the 43 hitters he has faced in the A.L.

3. J.D. Drew is not in the lineup today and when the team returns to Fenway Park on Friday, that will probably continue to be the case.

Drew will not be getting the preferential treatment that Terry Francona usually gives to veteran players because he just is not producing (.223 BA, .630 OPS, 4 HR, 22 RBI in 77 games) and the Red Sox have a player on their roster, Josh Reddick (.367 BA, 1.088 OPS, 4 HR, 18 RBI in 28 games), who is producing at the plate.

Reddick may not be the solution for the rest of the year but he is definitely a better option than Drew.