Here's Looking at the 2011 Red Sox

In most cities, a 89-73 record would be considered a cause for celebration. Don't believe me? Ask a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates or Kansas City Royals if they would be happy with 89 wins from their team and then ge back to me. I understand that the Red Sox have different expectations than either of those teams but it's worth mentioning that their 89-73 record was good for fifth best in the American League and tenth overall in baseball. When the season started back in April I expected a World Series parade to run through the streets of Boston but when one considers the amount of injuries that the Red Sox suffered coupled with disappointing performances from some key pitchers, it is hard to complain about 89 wins. Now that the season is over after the Sox took 2-of-3 from the Yankees on the final weekend to cost New York a division title, it is officially time to look ahead to 2011. What follows are my projections and predictions for what the Red Sox could look like next April (players listed in italics are projected acquisitions). Starting Rotation Projection: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jon Garland The top of the Red Sox staff is the envy of most teams with the 26-year-old southpaw Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA) and 26-year-old righty Buchholz (17-7, 2.33) anchoring the rotation. Lackey and Beckett were high priced disappointments in 2010 but if one - or hopefully both - rebound to their usual stats in 2011, the Sox will have a potent rotation. I do expect the Daisuke Matsuzaka era to end in Boston. Matsuzaka has a no-trade clause but I would doubt he would object to a trade to the West Coast, which would put him closer geographically to his native Japan. The Sox do have a lot of money tied up in Lackey and Beckett so I would be shocked if they made a run at a premiere free agent such as Cliff Lee. Instead, I see them looking for a short term solution like Garland, who had a nice season (14-12, 3.47) in San Diego. An internal solution such as Felix Doubront could also emerge. Bullpen Projection: Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Matt Thornton, Kerry Wood, Jon Rauch, Michael Bowden, Rich Hill The bullpen was a horror show in 2010 when even Papelbon (5-7, 3.95, 8 blown saves) was inconsistent. I still believe the Sox will stay with Papelbon in the closer role before he hits free agency after 2011 but do not be surprised if he gets dealt and Daniel Bard steps into the closer's job. Thornton and Wood would give Terry Francona a hard throwing lefty and righty in front of the Bard-Papelbon combination. Rauch had a very good year for the A.L. Central champion Twins but the Red Sox can outspend Minnesota to add a reliable middle reliever. Bowden would replace Tim Wakefield as the long man with the ability to start in a pinch. Hill could emerge as a weapon against lefties with his 12-to-6 curveball. Designated Hitter Projection: David Ortiz I never expected 32 homeruns and 102 RBI's from Big Papi and I hope he returns for his $12.5-million option instead of a two or three-year deal that he has been pushing for the last few weeks. In 2011, I would take 20+ homers and 80+ RBI from Ortiz as long as he stays near his 2010 batting average (.266) and OPS (.893). Catcher Projection: Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia Martinez is a free agent and has reportedly shot down a two-year offer from the Red Sox. I cannot see the Sox allowing him to leave because his bat is so important to the success of the lineup. He is a switch-hitter who hits for average and power. Although he will not be a catcher much longer, he would be able to transition into a designated hitter when his time behind the plate ends. Saltalamacchia was once a top prospect who the Sox got on the cheap from Texas in July. He too is a switch-hitter with promise at the plate and having a year or two to develop as a reserve at the big league level could be the trick to him realizing his potential. First Base Projection: Adrian Gonzalez Even if the Padres win the N.L. West, there is no way they will be able to afford him when he becomes a free agent after 2011. I expect Theo Epstein to offer a package based around Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Casey Kelly to land Gonzalez in Boston before Spring Training. The 28-year-old has averaged over 30 homeruns and 100 RBI's the last four years and is a two-time Gold Glove winner. Second Base Projection: Dustin Pedroia The 2007 A.L. Rookie of the Year and 2008 A.L. MVP was killing the ball in June when he fouled a ball of his foot in San Francisco, effectively ending his season. A healthy Pedroia is key to the success of the 2011 Red Sox. I wonder what Theo would do if - in terms of my mythical trade for Gonzalez - the Padres demanded Pedroia instead of Lowrie? Makes for an interesting debate. Third Base Projection: Kevin Youkilis It won't be easy for Youkilis to transform himself back into a third baseman after five years at first but Youk may be the hardest working superstar in baseball and I believe he can pull it off. Shortstop Projection: Marco Scutaro The numbers (.275 BA, .721 OPS, 11 HR, 56 RBI) don't jump off the screen but it's easy to forget with the injuries to Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron that Scutaro suffered through neck and shoulder pain all season that will probably have to be corrected through surgery. Utility Infielders Projection: Bill Hall, Brandon Inge Hall would have to take a hefty pay cut to stay with the Red Sox but his ability to play several positions and hit for power make him an attractive member of the bench. Inge has long been a favorite of TheBostonInsider and I would love to see the Sox add his versatility to their roster. Eric Patterson could also return for a second season because of his versatility. Left Field Projection: Carl Crawford Signing Crawford would have the added bonus of hurting Tampa Bay. Crawford has speed and can hit for average and power. He would be a fan favorite from Day One. This is not an indictment of Ellsbury. I am a fan of what Ellsbury brings to the table but to add a talent like Adrian Gonzalez, the Red Sox will have to be willing to deal a special talent away in return. Being able to sign a replacement like Crawford would make the loss of Ellsbury easier to accept. Center Field Projection: Mike Cameron I was looking forward to watching Cameron patrol center field in Fenway Park this summer but an abdominal injury cut his season short. He would be a one-year solution in 2011 but his defense and ability to hit for power would help get the Sox back into the playoffs. Right Field Projection: J.D. Drew Drew has never lived up to the 5-year/$70-million contract he received before the 2007 season but he gets on base and plays a solid right field. Believe me, there could be worse things than to have Drew in a Boston uniform. So what if his best moment with the Red Sox occured back in the 2007 ALCS, he did help the team win a World Series, right? Fourth Outfielder Projection: Darnell McDonald McDonald had a breakout year at age 31 and skeptics would be quick to point out that it would be risky to count on him to hit 9 homeruns and produce a .765 OPS (.821 vs. lefties) but he can play all three outfield positions and can steal a base when needed. Ryan Kalish will also compete for this position but he could benefit from playing full time in Pawtucket to start the year. If Theo reads this blog and comes through on the projections, this would be your 2011 Red Sox: 1. Marco Scutaro, SS 2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B 3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B 4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B 5. Carl Crawford, LF 6. Victor Martinez, C 7. David Ortiz, DH 8. Mike Cameron, CF 9. J.D. Drew, RF Bench: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bill Hall, Brandon Inge, Darnell McDonald Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jon Garland Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Matt Thornton, Kerry Wood, Jon Rauch, Michael Bowden, Rich Hill Put down that team for 97 wins and a World Series title.