Saturday, November 14, 2020

Addressing Celtics Rumors and a (Partial) Mock Draft

The NBA Draft is on Wednesday, and as usual the Celtics are in the middle of multiple rumors.  I will take a shot at making sense of those rumors and will also predict the Lottery and the Celtics three picks.

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Rumor #1: Gordon Hayward to Indiana for Myles Turner

Before addressing this particular rumor it must be pointed out that Hayward has a player option for 2020-2021 and while it's expected he will opt-in to a $34-million salary, there is a chance that he does not. 

Hayward has had a tough go of it in Boston.  He suffered a devastating ankle injury in his Celtics debut back in 2017 and never really got back to the All-Star level he was at when he left the Jazz.  Hayward did have a solid, but injury-plagued, campaign this past season (17.5ppg, 6.7rpg, 4.1apg) but as the Celtics are becoming Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown's team, his skill set is a bit redundant.

Turner is intriguing because he would provide the Celtics with a legitimate center (Daniel Theis is really a forward being forced to play center) who stands 6-11 and weighs 250 pounds but can also shoot the ball from the perimeter (35.7% career 3-point shooter).

Turner makes $18-million a season, so the Pacers would have to add salary to make the money work and the Celtics would likely have to send draft picks back to Indiana.

Would Hayward, Robert Williams, and the #14 and #26 picks for Turner, Jeremy Lamb, and Doug McDermott work for both teams?

The Celtics would add a young center who can complement Tatum and Brown while adding two solid veterans to build their bench.  As the Celtics look to contend for a championship, it's a wise move to improve (and balance) their roster.

Indiana gets a beloved native son, who more importantly could be a critical trade chip later in the season.  Williams doesn't seem to fit in Stevens' plans but maybe a change of scenery would benefit him.  Indiana also adds two picks after dealing their pick in this year's draft to Milwaukee last off-season for Malcolm Brogden.  With Pacers star Victor Oladipo (who has also been connected to Boston in trade rumors) wanting out, this move helps the Pacers start their expected rebuild.

Turner is only 24, so he makes sense to add as a third young star alongside Tatum and Brown.

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Rumor #2: Jrue Holiday to the Celtics

There are several scenarios in which Holiday could become a Celtic.  

One rumor has the Celtics moving Hayward to New Orleans along with all three first round picks.  New Orleans is rumored to be interested in gaining a second Lottery pick (they have the #13 pick) and they could make a package to move into the Top 10 if they add the three Celtics picks.

Another interesting rumor is a three-way deal that lands Holiday and Myles Turner in Boston (along with JJ Reddick), the Pelicans land Kemba Walker from Boston and Victor Oladipo from Indiana as well as the #14 and #30 pick from Boston, and the Pacers add Hayward, Lonzo Ball, and the #26 pick.

Holiday is intriguing.  I like the idea of pairing him with Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart in the Celtics back court.  He is an excellent defender and a capable scorer, but is only a career 35.4% shooter from 3-point.  Reddick would certainly add the shooting that Boston needs, but sending out Walker in that three-team deal does not seem like a good idea.

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Rumor #3: Use the #14, #26, and #30 picks to trade into the Top 10 of the Draft

This rumor is attached to Ainge nearly every draft.

Boston should be on the verge of a long run of contention with Tatum and Brown, so adding elite young talent to add around them makes a lot of sense.  That is why I lean toward a deal for the 24-year-old Myles Turner rather than one for the 30-year-old Jrue Holiday.

Moving up into the Top 10 of this Draft would cost Ainge all three of this year's first round picks, but that is worth it if there is a player the Celtics believe can be the third young piece to pair with Tatum and Brown to carry them through this decade.

Cleveland (#5), Atlanta (#6), Detroit (#7), and New York (#8) have all been rumored to be exploring the possibility of moving down to acquire multiple picks to aid their rebuilding process.

The Celtics could be looking to target USC big man Onyeka Okongwu, Auburn swingman Isaac Okoro, Florida State swingman Devin Vassell, Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton, or French point guard Killian Hayes.

I am all for Ainge taking a shot to add a potential impact player for the long term.

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2020 NBA Mock Draft (Lottery and Celtics picks)

I am not projecting any trades.  Updates will be made if trades are announced prior to the Draft.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Guard, Georgia

Edwards has the potential to develop into a Dwyane Wade-like scorer in the back court.  Edwards would join Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell to form a bright future in Minnesota.

Best Case: Dwyane Wade
Worst Case: J.R. Rider

2. Golden State Warriors: James Wiseman, Center, Memphis

College fans missed out on Wiseman, who was suspended by the NCAA and missed almost the whole season.  The Warriors - who will bring back Steph Curry and Klay Thompson - are in a "win now" situation and could be a candidate to trade this pick to add veterans but, if they stay here, adding the talented 7-1 center could help keep the Warriors in the title hunt for years to come.

Best Case: David Robinson
Worst Case: Joe Barry Carroll

3. Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Guard, Illawarra Hawks (Australian NBL)

Ball is the youngest of Lavar Ball's talented sons, and projects to be the best of the three.  Ball did struggle to shoot the ball in his season in Australia, which will hinder his career how it has done to his older brother Lonzo.   Ball is a jump shot away from being special, but that is the toughest skill to develop at an elite level at his age.

Best Case: Jason Kidd
Worst Case: Lonzo Ball

4. Chicago Bulls: Deni Avdija, Forward, Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israeli BPL)

I have seen nothing but highlights of Avdija, and he is promising.  But I felt similarly about Dragan Bender four years ago too.  I'd like to see the Bulls go for a player such as Dayton's Obi Toppin to add to their nucleus of Coby White, Zach LaVine, and Lauri Markkanen.

Best Case: Danilo Gallinari
Worst Case: Nikoloz Tskitishvili

5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Onyeka Okongwu, Center, USC

Collin Sexton and Darius Garland could both use a big man to throw the ball too near the rim, and Okongwu fits that mold.  After seeing the impact that Bam Adebayo had for the Heat this season, an explosive big man like Okongwu should be a good fit for the NBA game.

Best Case: Shawn Kemp
Worst Case: Chris Wilcox

6. Atlanta Hawks: Isaac Okoro, Guard/Forward, Auburn

Okoro has work to do on his perimeter shot but he's explosive in transition and should be able to immediately upgrade Atlanta's defense.  Trae Young needs an elite defender to play with to cover for his own defensive liabilities.

Best Case: Marcus Smart
Worst Case: Corey Brewer

7. Detroit Pistons: Tyrese Haliburton, Guard, Iowa State

The Pistons are in need of a young point guard to develop, and Haliburton combines playmaking ability with a very good jump shot.  The Pistons would be lucky if Haliburton (or Killian Hayes) falls into their laps at #7.

Best Case: Devin Booker
Worst Case: Jonny Flynn

8. New York Knicks: Killian Hayes, Guard, ratiopharm Ulm (German BBL)

The Knicks seem to have found a building block in last year's first round pick RJ Barrett, and can only hope that whoever they take at #8 (if they stay there) can do the same.  Hayes is a highly rated point guard from France, who really developed last year playing in Germany.  Knicks fans may be wary of a French point guard after the Frank Ntilikina but Hayes projects as a much better shooter and offensive threat.

Best Case: Damian Lillard
Worst Case: Frank Ntilikina

9. Washington Wizards: Obi Toppen, Forward, Dayton

Toppin was the best player you (probably) did not see in college basketball last year.  The Wizards are on the verge of a major rebuild and Toppin could be a big part of that process.

Best Case: Tobias Harris
Worst Case: Marquese Chriss

10. Phoenix Suns: Saddiq Bey, Forward, Villanova

Bey can give Devin Booker another shooter to space the floor and can defend both forward positions.  The Suns are a very good fit for Bey's skill set.

Best Case: Robert Horry
Worst Case: Andrew Nicholoson

11. San Antonio Spurs: Patrick Williams, Forward, Florida State

Either Williams or his Seminole teammate Devin Vassell fits with the Spurs rebuild.  Williams has a lot of potential and his developing game should flourish in the Spurs system.

Best Case: Harrison Barnes
Worst Case: Shabazz Muhammad

12. Sacramento Kings: Devin Vassell, Guard/Forward, Florida State

Vassell is far from a finished product but he demonstrated the ability to shoot the ball (41.7% from 3), handle the ball, and defend at Florida State.  The Kings need a wing who can do all of those things so this should be a good fit.

Best Case: Klay Thompson
Worst Case: James Young

13. New Orleans Pelicans: Kira Lewis, Guard, Alabama

With the Pelicans intent on moving on from Jrue Holiday, adding a dynamic young point guard like Lewis is a smart play as they build a young foundation around Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.

Best Case: De'Aaron Fox
Worst Case: Dante Exum

14. Boston Celtics: Aaron Nesmith, Guard, Vanderbilt

The Celtics are close to championship contention and one of their glaring weaknesses is shooting and secondary scoring.  Nesmith shot 52.2% from 3-point last year while averaging 23 points-per-game.  He could contribute immediately in Boston.  If Nesmith is not on the board, Memphis big man Precious Achiuwa makes sense.

Best Case: Jamal Murray
Worst Case: Jimmer Fredette

26. Boston Celtics: Tyrell Terry, Guard, Stanford

I doubt that the Celtics will use all three picks and are likely to move #26 and/or #30 for a future pick or draft a player too stash overseas.

Terry could be too enticing too pass up at this point of the draft.  Kemba Walker isn't getting any younger and his balky knee will surely need some management during the regular season.  Terry is a good shooter and could play off of Tatum and Brown in the half court when filling in for Walker.

Another name to keep in mind here would be TCU wing Desmond Bane.

30. Boston Celtics: Leandro Bolmaro, Guard/Forward, FC Barcelona Lassa (Spanish Liga ACB)

Here is Boston's "draft and stash" if he is still available.  Bolmaro needs to develop physically before jumping to the NBA, but is a good shooter and play maker.

Isiah Stewart, a physical big man from Washington, is another name to keep an eye on for Boston if they keep this pick.

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