Sunday, February 06, 2011
Super Bowl Pick
Green Bay Packers (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl XLV. Green Bay Packers versus Pittsburgh Steelers. Two of the greatest NFL franchises fighting for the right to claim the Vince Lombardi trophy and achieve football immortality.
The Packers are favored by a field goal and I think they will cover the spread and win this game by a score of 34-24. Green Bay has an offense built to play indoors and that has been a hidden factor all year because they play outdoors in Northern Wisconsin. Aaron Rodgers has been playing at an elite level all year and has been the MVP of the playoffs. Rodgers should be able to exploit Pittsburgh's one area of weakness on defense - their cornerbacks - and put his team in a position to control the ball. The Packers also have an excellent defense that will benefit today from the absence of Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey. Green Bay's B.J. Raji should be able to wreak havoc on the interior, allowing the likes of Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Desmond Bishop to get after Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
If the Steelers do find a way to pull this one out, it will be because of Roethlisberger and a third Super Bowl title would place him in the discussion with Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady, and Bart Starr as the all-time great quarterbacks.
As for some proposition bets...
Super Bowl MVP
It's always easy to go with the quarterback for this award but placing $100 on Rodgers (3/2) or Roethlisberger (7/2) won't provide any bang for your bucks.
I would put my money on Raji (35/1) who is primed for a monster game going against Pittsburgh's backup center Doug Legursky.
Green Bay's Charles Woodson (20/1) and Pittsburgh's Heath Miller (30/1) are dark horse candidates who could make bettors a nice profit.
B.J. Raji's Sack Total
The total has been set at .5 by BoDog. Take the over, I bet Legursky will too.
Rodgers' Completion % vs. Dwight Howard's Free Throw %
Rodgers has been established as the favorite (-6) over the Orlando Magic center. I will be on hand to watch Howard get physically punished by the Celtics big men all day and put his 57.5% on the line all afternoon.
Take Rodgers.
Ben Roethlisberger's Completions vs. Paul Pierce's Total Points
If this game goes as I expect, Roethlisberger will be throwing a lot of passes as the Steelers try and play catch up with the Packers. Big Ben could be putting up between 35-40 passes for his team to win and I think the Packers will put enough pressure on him and be able to cover his receivers with Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams and shut down their passing game.
Pierce should be able to take advantage of Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu to get at least 25 points on the Magic.
Take Pierce.
Margin of Victory
I like the Packers to win this game 34-24 and I really like the 11/2 odds of the the Packers winning by 7-1o points.
How Many Times Will Fox Announcers Say "Brett Favre"
Favre mentions can only be on live television and have to take place from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. The announcers have to exactly say "Brett Favre."
The line is set at 2.5
Take the over.
How Many Times Will Fox Announcers Say "Lockout"
The same rules apply for "Lockout" as they do for "Brett Favre."
The line is set at 1.5
Take the over.
Enjoy the game.
Go Pack Go!
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