Thursday, June 09, 2022

NBA Finals Random Thoughts (June 9, 2022)

Observations from a series that is trending toward an 18th championship banner for the Garden's rafters.

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The Celtics took a 2-1 series lead last night after a solid team effort.  In the first Finals game played in Boston since 2010, Jayson Tatum led the way with 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists while Jaylen Brown added 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists.  Marcus Smart and Al Horford led a strong defensive effort.  Grant Williams, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard also made contributions to the 116-100 victory.

However, the biggest factor in what was a dominating win was Robert Williams III.  Williams posted 8 points, 10 rebounds, 4 blocks (and several other shot alterations), and 3 steals to help spark the Celtics victory.  His presence on both ends of the floor was a significant reason why Boston held a 52-26 points in the paint advantage in Game 3. 

Williams mix of defense, rebounding, and interior scoring was a major factor in the Celtics second half rise to the top of the Eastern Conference standings.  Then in a blowout victory over the Timberwolves on March 27 Williams suffered a tear of the meniscus in his knee and his season looked to be over.  

After a March 30 surgery and a projected recovery of 6-8 weeks, Williams surprisingly returned during Game 3 of what would be Boston's first round sweep of the Nets.  Clearly not at 100%, his return still made the Celtics a championship contender.  He aggravated the knee with a bone bruise in Game 3 of the Milwaukee series (and then missed the next four games) and also missed Game 3 of the Conference Finals against Miami.  Even not at full strength, Williams flashed moments when his offense and defense could raise the team to championship level basketball.

Williams spoke of the challenges of playing through pain after the game.  Regarding the injury and his fast return from surgery he said, "I think it's a matter of playing through pain.  Obviously (I am) not getting the time off that I need for this injury.  But, we'll focus on that after the season."

Last night was the first time since the original injury that Williams looked like the player that earned 2nd Team All-Defense.  His energy on both ends was a major boost to his team, which was coming off of a 107-88 loss in Game 2.

It will be interesting to see how Williams' knee responds to only having one day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4, but his mental and physical toughness to play through the pain has helped his team get to within two wins of a championship.  

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Boston is not alone is dealing with injuries.

Steph Curry, the future Hall of Famer who is averaging 31.3 points per game through the first three Finals games while making a total of 18 3-pointers, emerged from a late fourth quarter loose ball scrum with a noticeable limp.

Curry, who has a long history of ankle injuries that have been addressed by several surgeries and who was forced to miss the last five regular season games after Marcus Smart crashed into his leg going for a loose ball in a March 16 game between the two Finals teams, stayed in the game for the next two minutes of play before being removed with the other starters with 2:19 left and the Celtics holding a 14-point lead.

While Curry downplayed the injury, saying that, "I don't feel like I'll miss a game."  However, his coach and teammates certainly are worried.

Steve Kerr, who kept Curry in after the injury, told the media after the game that, "We'll know more tomorrow," when asked about Curry's availability for Friday's pivotal Game 4.  Draymond Green said that, "You always worry," and Klay Thompson addressed the challenge of beating Boston without the two-time MVP and three-time NBA Champion when he said, "Without him, it will be very difficult."

I cannot imagine Curry not playing tomorrow, but how much of a factor the injury plays in impacting Curry's movement with and without the ball will play a critical role in Friday's game and the remainder of the series.

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Tatum and Brown, Boston's two young stars that came to the Celtics as the third overall pick in the 2017 and 2018 Drafts, are just two wins away from their first championship and both seem locked in to doing what is needed to defeat the Warriors.

Tatum is averaging 22 points, almost 5.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game.  Brown is posting 22.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4,3 assists per game.  Both have also played solid individual and team defense.

Many in Boston have expressed doubts whether the two stars could play together and win a championship.  While there is a lot of basketball left to play in the Finals and the Celtics are no lock to defeat the Warriors, Tatum and Brown have made it clear in their run to the Eastern Conference Championship and so far in the Finals that they are more than capable of leading a team to a title.

Both players will need to continue to be aggressive as scorers and play makers for their team while also playing tough defense and collecting rebounds.  This is their time to prove all doubters wrong and so far they are being successful in that mission.

Expect both, and especially Tatum, to have big nights tomorrow on short rest and put the Celtics in a commanding 3-1 series lead.

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One barrier to a Celtics championship parade is their (lack of) performance in the third quarter.

Third quarter dominance has been a staple of the Warriors dynasty with Curry, Thompson, Green, and Kerr and so far it is the only thing keeping them in the series.

In Game 1, the Warriors erased a 2 point halftime deficit with a 38-24 third quarter.  Boston was able to rescue the win with their own domination in a 40-16 fourth quarter.  In Game 2, the Warriors expanded on a 2-point halftime lead with an explosive 35-14 advantage in the third that led to their victory.  Last night's third quarter was not as significant but the Warriors did cut a 12-point halftime deficit to 4-points going into the fourth.

For the series, Golden State is an astounding +43 in the third quarter.  This is an issue that Ime Udoka needs to address.  

One simple solution would be for the Celtics to improve their own offensive efficiency after halftime by cutting down on turnovers that the Warriors turn into quick points and to instead get their own buckets to diminish any hot shooting by Curry and Friends.

Another possibility would be to juggle the third quarter lineup and play Grant Williams as an undersized (6-6) center and play him with Tatum, Brown, Smart, and White to create an offensive unit of five wings that should be able to handle the Warriors pressure defense and on defense be able to switch aggressively on Golden State's never ending waves of ball screens and dribble hand-offs.

This small lineup would erase Boston size advantage that they've used to take the lead in the series but it may also help to negate the explosiveness of the Warriors offense.

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Adjustments are also likely from Kerr, especially with a hobbled Curry and a short turnaround between Games 3 and 4 for his veteran team.

Through the first three games, the Warriors have relied almost exclusively on a seven-man rotation of Curry, Thompson, Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Otto Porter Jr., and Jordan Poole.  Andre Iguodala played 12 minutes in Game 1 before the return of Gary Payton II in the last two games following his fractured elbow suffered against the Grizzlies earlier in the playoffs.

Kerr does not have a lot of proven options on his bench, but it would not be surprising to see Juan Toscano-Anderson (7 total minutes in the Finals through three games), Damion Lee (7 total minutes), Jonathan Kuminga (7 total minutes), or Moses Moody (9 total minutes) earn the opportunity to lengthen the Warriors bench and provide some much needed length and energy against Boston.

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The Finals are far from over, but I'm sticking with Celtics in 6.

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