The Celtics are on the cusp of reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 but even with a 3-2 lead over the Miami Heat and having the luxury of playing Game 6 at TD Garden, the Green should not looking ahead.
Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals will be played tomorrow night exactly two weeks after the Bucks blew a chance to closeout the Celtics in Milwaukee in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. That memory alone should be enough motivation for the Celtics to play with the needed sense of urgency to finish this series.
Winning tomorrow night may end up making the difference if the Celtics are to win their first championship since 2008. Boston is dealing with a myriad of health issues - Jayson Tatum's shoulder, Robert Williams' knee, Marcus Smart's ankle - and with the Finals not starting until Thursday, June 2 the Celtics can buy themselves several days to rest and recuperate in preparation to play the Western Conference champions. Winning tomorrow night also saves the Celtics from flying to and from Miami for a potential Game 7 on Sunday night. The extra 48 hours and not having to travel could be the difference between being relatively healthy heading into the Finals or being a banged up club heading into the Finals.
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Ten years ago, the Celtics won a Game 5 in Miami to give themselves a 3-2 lead heading back to Boston for Game 6 with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals. The Celtics failed to closeout the Heat, as LeBron James played one of the best games of his great career (45 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists) in a Miami blowout in Boston before the Heat held on to beat the Celtics in Game 7 in Miami.
I do not see anyone on the Heat capable of pulling off a performance like that tomorrow. Yes, Bam Adebayo had monster performance in Game 3 with 31 points and 10 rebounds but for the most part he's been slowed in this series by Williams, Al Horford, and Grant Williams. Yes, Jimmy Butler put up 41 points in Game 1 and 29 points in Game 2, but he is struggling with a knee injury and has scored just 27 total points in the last three games. But if the Celtics are relatively healthy heading into Game 6 - which is no guarantee - than their team and individual defense should be enough to suffocate Miami and allow the Celtics to celebrate with their fans on Friday night.
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Both the the Western and Eastern Conference Finals have been mostly anticlimactic.
Out West, the Warriors stormed out to a commanding 3-0 lead before Luka Doncic saved the Mavericks season with a 30 point, 14 rebound, 9 assist masterpiece in Game 4. Golden State has the chance tonight at home to end the series and earn a sixth Finals trip of the Steph Curry and Klay Thompson era.
In the East, the Celtics and Heat have taken turns dominating each other in the fist four games. Game 5 was close at halftime but then the Celtics blew the game open in the second half.
Hopefully, the NBA Finals will be a better showcase of competition than we've seen in the Conference Finals.
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Looking ahead, a Celtics-Warriors match up in the Finals is intriguing.
The Warriors have the championship pedigree, with Curry and Thompson (as well as Draymond Green) having won three championships in their five Finals trips from 2015-2019. As they dealt with injuries in 2020 and 2021 they missed the playoffs but were able to rebuild an aging roster that is now on the cusp of another Finals trip.
The Celtics seem to be on the verge of realizing the vision of Danny Ainge when he traded away Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to the Nets in 2013 for a handful of draft picks. Two of those picks became Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum is now in his third Conference Finals and Brown is in his fourth Conference Finals and the two young superstars (Tatum turned 24 in March and Brown will turn 26 in October) seem primed to take the next step.
Both teams have prolific offenses. Golden State relies on the 3-point shot like they did in their previous Finals runs while Curry (25.5 points per game) and Thompson (20.4) still lead the way. However, this Warriors team also can rely on Jordan Poole (18.5) and Andrew Wiggins (17.2) to provide secondary scoring that causes nightmares for opposing coaches. Boston also relies on its two stars to do most of the scoring. Tatum averages 26.9 points per game and Brown adds 23.6 points per game. The Celtics then rely on their depth for secondary scoring with Smart (12.1), Derrick White (11 since coming to Boston at the trade deadline), Horford (10.2), and Robert Williams (10) providing balance.
They were also two of the best defenses in the league in the regular season and in the playoffs the Celtics (first) and Warriors (second) have the best team defensive ratings.
In the end, I believe it will come down to health. If Boston can play their regular rotation in the Finals I believe they are good enough to overcome the Warriors and claim the franchise's 18th NBA Championship. Marcus Smart was Defensive Player of the Year and Robert Williams was 2nd Team All-Defense. If they play at full speed, the Celtics can protect the rim and make life difficult for even the best of guards. Boston has the flexibility to use Smart, White, Brown, and Tatum to switch on to any perimeter player with Williams, Horford, and Grant Williams able to help around the perimeter and protect the basket.
Celtics in 6.
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Enjoy Luke Doncic tonight.
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