Jayson Tatum is already a bona fide NBA star.
Tatum, who will not turn 23 until March, was on the NBA All-Rookie Team in 2018, made his first All-Star Game last season when he was also 3rd Team All-NBA. An integral part of the team from his first day in a Celtics uniform, the former #3 overall pick out of Duke has helped lead the team to the playoffs in all three of his seasons, which includes two trips to the Eastern Conference Finals.
For the basketball genius' that make up most of Boston's sports media, this is not enough. They cannot believe that Tatum (and fellow young star Jaylen Brown) were not capable of leading the Celtics to the 2020 NBA Championship. The working theory of this group of Naismith Scholars is that Tatum and Brown are a lost cause already, and as soon as Danny Ainge fires Brad Stevens he should trade Tatum abd Brown away before firing himself.
Tatum's game is far from perfect. He tends to settle for three-pointers when he can seemingly get to the basket at will. He turns the ball over when faced with double teams. His defense can be indifferent at times.
On Monday night, with eight seconds on the clock and the Celtics trailing the Pacers by one point, Tatum dribbled down the clock and took a contested three that missed. This is a decision he seems to make quite a bit with little time left on the clock late in quarters.
All of this is fair criticism. But at age 22, do we really expect Tatum's game to be perfect?
Last season, Tatum averaged 25.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. For comparison, in his age 22 season, LeBron James averaged 27.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. Another comparison is with Paul Pierce, who in his third season at age 23, averaged 25.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.1 assists.
Tatum belongs in the discussion with those type of players. He has a lot of work to do on his body, his game, and his decision making if he is to join Pierce as an NBA Champion and future Hall of Famers (and even more to do to join LeBron in the discussion as an all-time great).
But right now, as Ainge builds a contender around Tatum and Brown, the Celtics are in a very good position and should have a very bright future.
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The 2020 Eastern Conference Finals created a false narrative that Danny Ainge does a poor job of drafting. The image of Tyler Herro consistently drilling open shots while Romeo Langford was in street clothes on the bench was the evidence used by Ainge's critics to state that his poor drafting cost the Celtics a championship.
This ignores Ainge hitting on Marcus Smart (6th pick in 2015), Brown (3rd pick in 2016), and Tatum (3rd pick in 2017) at the top of the Lottery. The critics will sing that the top of the Lottery is easy, but there are too many examples to list of teams consistently missing on picks at the top of the Lottery and returning to the top of the Lottery for many years in a row because they missed on those picks.
In the middle and end of the first round, Ainge has recently added Robert Williams (27th pick in 2018), Romeo Langford (14th pick in 2019), Grant Williams (22nd pick in 2019), Aaron Nesmith (14th pick in 2020), and Payton Pritchard (26th pick in 2020) to the Celtics roster.
Robert Williams has been inconsistent in his first two seasons, but has flashed potential and has had a strong start in the first four games of this season coming off the bench. Langford struggled as a rookie and is currently hurt, but showed reason to be optimistic in his limited role as a rookie. Grant Williams had a strong rookie season and looks to be a solid rotation player already. Nesmith has not done anything yet to start his rookie season, but his ability to shoot should earn him an important role sooner than later. Pritchard has already earned a spot in Stevens' rotation with his shooting and defense.
This is how championship teams are built. You have a few stars to carry the team - with Tatum, Brown, and Kemba Walker being those stars for the Celtics - and then a series of role players that help in different ways on both ends of the floor.
Ainge has built that roster for this season, with a solid rotation of Tristan Thompson, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams as big guys and Smart, Jeff Teague, and Pritchard as guards to complement Tatum and Brown (and Walker when he returns from his knee injury). There's good reason to believe that Langford (for defense) and Nesmith (for shooting) can help at some point this season.
Eight of those players have been drafted by Ainge. Only Walker, Thompson, Theis, and Teague were added as free agents. This is a winning formula. Ainge, along with Stevens, is building a championship contender through the Draft and that should have the Celtics competing for titles throughout the 2020's.
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Kemba Walker will not be on the floor for the Celtics for at least another month, and I'd lean conservatively that he's not playing before Valentine's Day.
And that isn't the worst thing for the Celtics.
Certainly, not having an All-Star point guard on the floor is not the best case scenario for the Celtics. But, it helps them in several ways.
First, it hopefully means that Walker will return healthy. He is the third star, with Tatum and Brown, that Boston's title hopes are tied to this season. Healthy, Walker represents 20+ points per game every time he steps on the floor and is known for making late-game shots. He clearly wasn't healthy in the 2020 Bubble Playoffs, and that really was why the Heat advanced to the Finals and the Celtics went home. Resting him now, and allowing his knee to recover, is the best decision to have him ready for a deep playoff run in 2021.
Another benefit is that it really allows Tatum and Brown to take on the mantle as team leaders. Both young stars have played in many big games early in their careers, but they have had veterans to carry the burden. Now, with high expectations for the Celtics, Tatum and Brown are the unquestioned team leaders. This is critical for their development.
Walker's absence is also allowing Smart, Teague, and Pritchard to assert themselves more in the offense. That will also pay off later in the season. It will be critical to have multiple players to provide offense, especially off the bench, when the Celtics look ahead to playoff series against the likes of the Nets, Bucks, Heat, and Pacers.
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I'm doing my best to not get too excited for Payton Pritchard, but we're a few weeks away from me writing 1,000 random words about the rookie from Oregon.
I also think by then, Nesmith will be a significant part of the rotation and will be knocking down open perimeter shots, and the Celtics rotation will have enough balance to think they can compete in the East this year.
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When Gordon Hayward was moved to the Hornets in November in a sign-and-trade deal, Boston received a Traded Player Exception (TPE).
Ainge has a year to use this TPE to add a player or two without sending out money to balance the salary cap.
I think the decision on who to add will come down to Walker's health. If Kemba doesn't return to his usual form, then Ainge will need to find a veteran guard to add to this roster. George Hill would be a good fit if they need a Walker replacement.
If Walker does come back strong, then adding a veteran wing would make a lot of sense. I do believe in Nesmith's shooting as an asset for this season, but finding another piece on the wing is a good idea regardless.
Two names to keep an eye on in that market are P.J. Tucker of the Rockets and Evan Fournier of the Magic.
Tucker would add a terrific defender who can make 3's and Fournier would add much needed bench scoring.
In a perfect world, Ainge could create enough cap space by moving out Theis, Langford, and Carsen Edwards and add both Tucker (who even at 6-5 can defend bigs in a "small ball" lineup) and Fournier using future first round picks.
That would make a rotation of Tatum, Brown, Walker, Tucker, Thompson, Teague, Fournier, Williams, Williams, and Pritchard (and maybe Nesmith). No NBA team rolls out eleven, but on any given night Stevens would have roster flexibility on both ends of the floor to choose his matchups.
Keep a close eye on that TPE.
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James Harden? No!
I love the idea of building a long-term contender around Tatum and Brown, but wouldn't reject an offer to use Brown as the center piece of a deal to add a veteran superstar that makes the Celtics an instant contender.
I just do not believe Harden is that guy. Yes, he's as gifted as a scorer as there exists in the NBA, but he has a long history of disappearing in big games. I do not believe a Harden-Tatum duo is a guarantee that the Celtics jump above the Nets and Bucks in the East or become a legitimate threat to the Lakers. I actually think that an already shaky Celtics defense would become worse with Harden replacing Brown.
So, no on Harden.
Now, if Kawhi became available from the Clippers (and would agree to a "wink-wink" deal to stay in Boston past 2021), I'd listen.
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Enjoy Jayson Tatum tonight. I'm thinking a triple double tonight against the Grizzlies.
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