Random Thoughts (July 23, 2009)

Playing 3,000 miles away from Fenway has not kept Manny Ramirez out of the news. Ramirez has had quite the year. He tested positive for a banned substance, served a fifty-game suspension, and he passed Mickey Mantle on the all-time homerun list. So, Red Sox fans, do you think you could have put up with Ramirez' occassional infant behavior if it meant our offense wouldn't be as weak as an airplane cocktail? Last night, Ramirez hit his 21st career grand slam in a pinch-hit role. It puts him just two grand slams behind the all-time leader, Lou Gehrig. For all of his many faults, Ramirez is a Hall of Fame hitter and if he were entrenched in the heart of the Red Sox lineup, I seriously doubt the Boston offense would be struggling to hit the likes of Dustin Nippert. The Dodgers are the best team in the National League and are a legitimate World Series contender for the first time since Orel Hershiser and Kirk Gibson wore Dodger Blue. As much as I love Jason Bay, he is not Manny Ramirez. Not many hitters in the history of baseball can match Manny's astronomical production. It does not take a tremendous leap of faith to say that if Manny was still a member of the Red Sox, the team would have advanced past the Rays in the 2008 ALCS and possibly won a third World Series in Ramirez' tenure and that they would not be struggling so much to score runs as they are right now... One debate taking place in the sports world right now is that Ramirez does not deserve to rank higher than Mantle because of his positive test for a banned performance-enhancing drug. Please let me play devil's advocate for a moment. Although Ramirez did break the rules of baseball, doesn't his willingness to take that drug show how much he cares about being a great baseball player. In contrast, Mantle's well known problems with alcohol curtailed some of his success and, along with injury problems, led to the premature end of his career. If Mantle has cared as much as Ramirez about maintaining his body, he might have become the greatest baseball player ever... In addition to trading two low-level prospects to Pittsburgh for firstbaseman Adam LaRoche, Theo Epstein also traded Julio Lugo to the Cardinals for outfielder Chris Duncan. Lugo, who had been designated for assignment last Friday, was the biggest free agent bust of the Epstein era (see below). I have to give credit to Epstein for getting anything in return for Lugo, let alone an outfielder with the potential to hit for power. Duncan is a former first round pick of the Cardinals (1999) who never found his stroke in St. Louis. The change of scenery - and maybe getting away from his father, Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan - might help Duncan succeed. He has been assigned to Triple-A Pawtucket. A quick glance at his Baseball-Reference page shows that Duncan has produced at the major league level, hitting 22 homeruns in 2006 and 21 in 2007. Duncan's similarity score says he is closest to White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin, a 2008 All-Star. Whether or not Duncan ever makes a difference in Boston, I was surprised Epstein could even get a warm body, let alone someone who at least statistically compares with Quentin. I wouldn't have even given up Carlos Quintana... When it comes to building a first-class farm system and a world champion organization, Theo Epstein ranks as the best general manager in baseball. Under his direction since 2003, the Red Sox have won two World Series, advanced to the ALCS four times, and only missed the postseason once. He has also overseen a buildup in the franchise's minor league talent levels that is already paying off at the major league level. Epstein draft picks Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, and Clay Buchholz are already producing for Boston while a host of others are developing in Pawtucket, Portland, Greenville, Salem, and Lowell. However, there is one are in which Epstein has consistently failed: signing free agents. Epstein has acted as a sort of Old Testament Santa Claus, handing out huge contracts that have often failed. Other than signing closer Keith Foulke after the 2003 season, none of his big-ticket signings have made a significant impact for the Red Sox. After the 2004 World Series, Epstein allowed pitchers Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe to leave as free agents (he made the right call on Pedro but he never should have let Lowe walk) and replaced them by signing Matt Clement and David Wells. Neither won a playoff game. Wells was traded to San Diego in 2006 and Clement was released after the 2007 season. Another major Epstein free agent blunder took place after 2004. He allowed Orlando Cabrera - one of the catalysts on the Red Sox journey to the World Series - to leave as a free agent and signed Edgar Renteria. Steve McNair had more success in dating than Renteria had in Boston and he was traded after just one miserable season in Boston. The 2006 offseason was another disaster for Epstein. He sank over $100-million in Japanese import Daisuke Matsuzaka, $70-million in outfielder J.D. Drew, and $36-million in shortstop Julio Lugo. All three contributed to the 2007 World Series team but all have major warts. Matsuzaka has been wildly inconsistent and is currently on the disabled list with shoulder fatigue. His insistance on pitching for Japan in the World Baseball Classic was obviously more important than earning the $12-million he is being paid this season by the Red Sox. Drew has been a decent player for the Red Sox and has come through in a few clutch moments but in no way has he lived up to his contract. For $14-million a season, a team should be getting MVP-quality performance from a corner outfielder. Drew has not lived up to those expectations. Lugo has been the worst signing of the Epstein era. He was terrible at the plate and terrible at the field. His departure is a text book example of addition by subtraction. Stephen Hawking would have been a better investment as a shortstop than Lugo. All things considered, Theo Epstein has done a great job running the Red Sox. His teams are consistently the best in baseball. However, if I were Sox owner John Henry, I would keep a close eye on my bank card when Theo decides it is time to go shopping this winter... Steve Buckley will have to continue his vigil for Tony Conigliaro to have No. 25 hung below the Budweiser Roof Deck in Fenway's right field but Jim Rice fans can finally live in peace. Rice, who will be inducted into Baseball's Hall of Fame on Sunday, will have his No. 14 retired by the Red Sox before Tuesday's game against the A's. He will join Bobby Doerr (1), Joe Cronin (4), Johnny Pesky (6), Carl Yastrzemski (8), Ted Williams (9), Carlton Fisk (27), and Jackie Robinson (42) on the right field facade. Congratulations Jim... Enjoy the Cape Cod League All-Star Game...