Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Celtics Random Thoughts (June 2, 2021)

 Less than 24 hours after the disappointing 2020-21 Celtics season ended, major news shook up the organization.

Danny Ainge, who has run the Celtics basketball operations for 18 years, is leaving the organization and Brad Stevens, the Celtics coach for the last 8 years, is leaving the sidelines to replace Ainge in the front office.

The two decisions seem to stem from long-term causes - Ainge is 62 and has had some health issues while Stevens reportedly was worn down from the 2020 Playoff Bubble and the quick turnaround to start this season - and not as a reaction to a disappointing 2020-21 season that was ended by the Brooklyn Nets last night.

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Stevens has been a very good NBA coach, amassing a 354-282 record (329-225 over the last seasons) and seven playoff appearances.  The Celtics advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals three times under Stevens leadership.

The move to the front office will be interesting, as Stevens has no management experience.  He obviously has an eye for talent and has a strong understanding of the modern NBA after eight years on the sidelines but his ability to run the day-to-day operations of a franchise and being able to balance long-term and short-term needs are unknown.

I am optimistic that Stevens will succeed.  He is as talented of a basketball mind that the NBA has, has the backing of ownership, and has a 23-year old future MVP candidate in Jayson Tatum to build around.  As frustrating as this season was, the future remains bright for the Celtics.

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Danny Ainge was not perfect.  He made mistakes.  Not every move he made was a good one and some were flat out awful.

But Stevens will be lucky to replicate his success.

In the fourteen years from 1989-90 to 2002-03, the Celtics made the playoffs just seven times and advanced as far as the Eastern Conference Finals just once.

In the eighteen years since Ainge took over in 2003, the Celtics have made the playoffs fifteen times.  They played in the Eastern Conference Finals six times, the NBA Finals twice, and won the 2008 NBA Championship.

He hired two coaches, Doc Rivers and Stevens, that are considered among the best in the game.  He drafted Rajon Rondo, Tatum, and Jaylen Brown.  He traded for Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Isaiah Thomas, and Kyrie Irving.  He signed Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, and Kemba Walker as free agents.  

All things considered, a great run of success.

And for all of the "Green Teamers" who demand championships every year, running a team in the 21st Century is not like it was in the '60s, '70s, or '80s.

Imagine you are a world-class basketball player being fawned over by teams wanting to spend tens of millions of dollars on you in free agency.  Do you want to play in Boston, with bad winter weather and high taxes, or do you want to play in a place like Miami, with South Beach and no state income taxes?

Ainge found a way to keep the Celtics competitive for almost two decades and added a banner to the rafters in a time period that stacked the deck against an NBA team in Boston.  He swung for the fences quite a bit and even though some moves failed due to bad luck (Irving, Hayward, Walker), he was always trying to move the franchise toward an 18th Banner.  He will not be easily replaced.

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Replacing himself as coach will be challenge number one for Stevens in his new job.

This will be a coveted job, as the Celtics have Tatum and Brown as foundational pieces to build a roster around.

Former head coaches like Lloyd Pierce, Jason Kidd, and Kenny Atkinson will be mentioned.

Former players in the coaching world such as Sam Cassell, Chauncey Billups, and Juwan Howard will also be in the mix.

Spurs assistant coach Becky Hammon and Duke head coach Kara Lawson will be considered.

My number one target would be Howard, who has a strong pedigree as a player and has proved at Michigan that he can coach at a high level.

If Stevens is turned down by Howard, I'd turn to Hammon or Lawson, with Lawson getting the edge due to her time as a Celtics assistant in the 2019-20 season.

This would not be a publicity stunt to simply hire the league's first female head coach.  Hammon and Lawson have excellent reputations and are experienced.  

Of course, Stevens would also be wise to seek the opinion of Tatum and Brown.  The Celtics need them to lead the team from the depths of this season and giving them a voice in the selection of the next coach will be a big step in their development as team leaders.

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Adding pieces around Tatum and Brown will be a serious challenge.  

Ainge's decision to sign Kemba Walker to replace Kyrie Irving after the 2019 season seemed brilliant at the time, but Kemba's knee injuries have made him into an aging and inconsistent player.  Moving on from the remaining two years and $70-million will be Stevens first order of business.  If he cannot shed Kemba's contract, than convincing him to accept a role as a 6th Man who can provide scoring off of the bench when Tatum and/or Brown are off the floor is the next step.

Stevens also needs to shed dead weight off the end of a bench that he knows better than anyone else.  Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye, Carsen Edwards, Tacko Fall, and Tremont Waters should have all played in their last Celtics game.

Maximizing the other young talent on the bench - Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith, and Payton Pritchard - will be important for Stevens to emphasize with the next head coach.  They have all shown flashes of being able to play at the NBA level and they can be part of a foundation around Tatum and Brown.

Keeping Evan Fournier, who Ainge added at the trade deadline, at a reasonable price would also help to build out the rotation.  Fournier should be able to flourish as a spot-up shooter playing off of Tatum and Brown and as a secondary playmaker.

Using the 16th pick to add another young talent who can contribute something next season would be nice, but with a need to improve this roster immediately using the pick to add a veteran contributor might be the better decision.

Stevens would also be wise to see what star(s) are unhappy in their current situation and make a move to add a third All-Star to complement Tatum and Brown before they become the stars unhappy in their current situations.

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Enjoy the Bucks in Round Two.

Bucks over Clippers in the Finals.

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