Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Red Sox Offseason Ideas

I wanted to write this blog last night. Believe me, I did.  My notes were ready and, after watching the Red Sox season end with a disappointing loss at Fenway in Game 4 of the ALDS on Monday, so was I.  But then it got late and I knew I was taking a day off today so I thought putting it off until today was not a big deal.

Well, when you're first proposed order of business was to fire the manager it's a big deal when the team acts before you type.

The Red Sox announced today that John Farrell, the team's manager since 2013, will not return in that role in 2018.  

Farrell, who led the team to the 2013 World Series championship and three AL East titles in his five years and also was the pitching coach on the 2007 World Series championship team, is out as a result of consecutive years in which the team was quickly bounced out of the American League playoffs.

John Henry doesn't pay almost $200 million a year for a team to lose in the ALDS.  I'm not going to waste too much time and space explaining the pros and cons of Farrell as manager but the reality is that while this team was far from perfect, he did not seem to make the right decisions at the right times to maximize the team's potential.

Finding a new manager will be Dave Dombrowski's first order of business in the offseason.  I hope he's reading because TheBostonInsider will help him address that and a few other pressing concerns to get the Red Sox back into serious contention for the 2018 World Series.

1. Hire a new manager

I see three options for Dombrowski.

The first would be to hire Brad Ausmus.  He was hired to manage the Tigers in 2014 by Dombrowski and led them to the AL Central title that season but did not make the playoffs the last three years.

The second would be Alex Cora.  A member of the Red Sox from 2005-2008, he does not have any managerial experience.  Cora is currently in his first season as bench coach for the Astros.  A native of Puerto Rico, Cora could be a positive influence on some of the team's young Latin American stars such as Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers.

The third would be to convince the soon to be 73-year-old Jim Leyland to come out of retirement.  Leyland last managed full time in 2013 - his Tigers were eliminated by the Red Sox in the ALCS - but he did manage Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic.  Although he has said he does not want to come out of retirement, Leyland and Dombrowski have a history together and the Red Sox have enough money to entice a man to change his mind.  Jason Varitek, a dark horse candidate himself, could be Leyland's bench coach in a role that could train him to one day become manager.

Ausmus is the likely choice due to his history with Dombrowski but if it was up to me - and Leyland really means it when he says he is done - it would be Alex Cora.

2. Find a power bat for the middle of the lineup

In a year when the most home runs were hit in a single season, the Red Sox were almost dead last in that category.  Mookie Betts led the team with 24 and only three others reached the 20 home run plateau.  Betts was also the only member of the team to drive in at least 100 runs.

This lineup needs some help.

One name to keep an eye on is ex-Tiger and current Diamondbacks outfielder J.D. Martinez.  He is coming off a season in which he hit 45 home runs and drove in 104 runs.  Martinez is not a one-year wonder though. He had 22 home runs and 68 RBI in 2016 and in his All-Star year of 2015 had 38 home runs and 102 RBI.  His power would be a great addition to the middle of the Red Sox lineup but would likely necessitate Dombrowski to deal away center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and move Andrew Benintendi from left field to center.  I'll get to Bradley later in the post.

Other names being mentioned with the Red Sox in free agency are Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas of the Royals and Carlos Santana of the Indians.

Trade possibilities will include Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox.  

Martinez would be my first choice with Hosmer and Abreu as solid backup options.  Stanton is a rare talent and could be the 2017 NL MVP but his contract and the amount of talent the Sox would have to give up make it unlikely to happen.

3. Be ready to trade home grown talent

The Red Sox have done a wonderful job of developing draft picks and international free agents such as Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Benintendi.  However, with a need to upgrade this roster to advance past the ALDS, it's time to move on from a few of these players.

Bradley could be used in a package to land Abreu in a trade or to add pitching.

Bogaerts could also be used to add a power bat.

Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley are all coming off down offensive seasons and while it is not ideal to sell low, to make the Red Sox a World Series contender in 2018 one (or more) of them may have to be moved this winter.

4. Develop a plan to have Chris Sale rested for October 

Sale's first season in Boston was a resounding success but the stress of a full season of carrying the rotation hurt him down the stretch and against the Astros.  Building in rest for the ace - be it taking him out early from blowouts or a well timed disabled list visit after the All-Star Break - will have him at his best when it matter the most.  I remember the Red Sox doing this for Josh Beckett in 2007 and while it cost him the Cy Young that year he was at full strength in October and led the team to a championship.

Having bounce back seasons from Rick Porcello, David Price, and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as another solid campaign from Drew Pomeranz, will help lessen the burden on Sale.

5. Re-sign Eduardo Nunez (if his knee is healthy)

The trade for Nunez injected a jolt of life that pushed the Red Sox into the AL East lead.  His knee injury that cost him most of September and knocked him out of Game 1 of the ALDS was a big blow to the Sox offense.

If his knee projects to be healthy,  he should be brought back.  Nunez offers excellent insurance for the aging and oft-injured Dustin Pedroia and can also spell Nunez at third, Bogaerts at short, and can fill in at first base and as the DH.

Pedroia just isn't capable of playing a full season and the likes of Brock Holt and Devin Marrero are not a plausible solution if needed to fill in for weeks at a time.  Nunez can be that guy.

6. Re-sign Addison Reed to shore up the bullpen in front of Craig Kimbrel

The Red Sox have the makings of an excellent bullpen in 2018.  Kimbrel is an established All-Star closer.  Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are power arms for the middle innings.  Carson Smith showed great promise when he came back from his 2016 Tommy John surgery and the hope is that Tyler Thornburg will bounce back in 2018 from his 2017 shoulder surgery.  Austin Maddox showed promise in 2017 and is an intriguing option for 2018.  Finding a lefty specialist and bringing back Reed - or signing a replacement such as Pat Neshak - would shore up the pen heading into 2018.

7. Improve the bench 

Sandy Leon can be brought back for a look in Spring Training but if Blake Swihart looks ready in March, he should split the catching duties with Christian Vazquez.

Nunez should be brought back as the super utility man who can spell Pedroia twice a week (if not more) and give Devers and Bogaerts a day each week as well.  Tzu-Wei Lin should beat out Marrero for the other utility job.

Bringing back Rajai Davis as the fourth outfielder would make sense but it also makes sense to see if Rusney Castillo can earn that job.

Sam Travis should be brought up to platoon at first base with Hanley Ramirez if Mitch Moreland does not come back and the team does not look to add veteran power at first base.

Now if Dombrowski follows my advice, this would be your 2018 Red Sox.

SP: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez

RP: Craig Kimbrel, Addison Reed, Carson Smith, Tyler Thornburg, Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Robby Scott

Lineup:

1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
2. Xander Bogaerts, SS
3. Andrew Benintendi, CF
4. Mookie Betts, RF
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Rafael Devers, 3B
7. Hanley Ramirez, DH
8. Sam Travis, 1B
9. Christian Vazquez, C

Bench: Eduardo Nunez, Utility; Blake Swihart, C; Tzu-Wei Lin, Utility; Rajai Davis, OF

Can Alex Cora lead that team to a championship?

I'd love to see him try.

No comments: