Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Random Thoughts (July 9, 2014)

The expected fire sale of Red Sox veterans looks like it will start with Jake Peavy.  The Cardinals, Giants, and Dodgers all have been mentioned as landing spots for the 2007 National League Cy Young winner with St. Louis a favorite to land him according to reports from last night.

Peavy, a trade deadline acquisition of the Red Sox last summer, does not have an impressive stat line in 2014 (1-7, 4.64 ERA) but he has pitched better recently and should be capable of helping a National League contender fill out the back end of their starting rotation.

After Peavy goes, it's likely that the Red Sox will try and find new homes for some of their other veterans.

A.J. Pierzynski is likely to be traded or, if no team wants to give up anything for him, be released.  Jonny Gomes should find a home on a team looking for a right handed bat off the bench.  David Ross could also be an option for a contender looking to upgrade at catcher but he might be too respected by the pitching staff and the coaches to be dealt.  Stephen Drew has looked lost at the plate but he's a terrific defensive shortstop and could be helpful to a team looking to upgrade their defense.

Koji Uehara could fetch a few quality prospects if Ben Cherington dangles him on the market but he might also be kept as the Red Sox don't figure to be entering a long term rebuilding phase.  Other relievers on the Red Sox who could draw interest are Burke Badenhop, Craig Breslow, Andrew Miller, Junichi Tazawa, and Edward Mujica.  It's likely that Cherington will deal one or two of his bullpen pieces - to gain prospects and to also open room in the 'pen for some younger arms - but again, this is not a long term rebuild so don't expect a complete overhaul of one of the few areas of the team that has been successful in 2014.

Will Cherington deal starting pitching other than Peavy?  There will certainly be rumors about Jon Lester and John Lackey.  The hope here is that both are retained by the Red Sox and each is back with the team as the leaders of the rotation in 2015.  Could a team gamble on Clay Buchholz if he continues to pitch well in July before the deadline?  I could see that happening.  Felix Doubront might also benefit from a change of scenery.

Mike Napoli could also bring back some prospects of value if Cherington chooses to make him available due to the lack of offense on the market but I hope he stays in Boston and is part of the future.

The goal for Cherington should be to gain as many young assets as possible for the veterans who are not going to be a part of the future and create everyday playing opportunities for the young talent already in the system to see if they can be a part of the solution in 2015.

That means Xander Bogaerts should be the everyday shortstop (read below).  Jackie Bradley Jr. is the center fielder for the rest of the season.  Mookie Betts and Brock Holt, two versatile players, need to be in the lineup every day.  Will Middlebrooks deserves one more chance, if he can get healthy, to see if he can produce in Boston's lineup.  Christian Vazquez should be behind the plate.

The lineup should look something like this no later than August 1:

1. Holt, RF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Ortiz, DH
4. Napoli, 1B
5. Bogaerts, SS
6. Middlebrooks, 3B
7. Betts, LF
8. Bradley, CF
9. Nazquez, C

Lester and Lackey should be joined by Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo, and Allen Webster in the rotation.  Brandon Workman and Drake Britton should be working out of the bullpen.

Cherington is in the unique position of coming off a World Series in one season, having the chance to blow up and rebuild his franchise the next season, and have enough established stars, young talent, and money to build a contender for the very next season.  Let's hope he clears space to try out the youngsters and starts the process of building a winner for 2015 in July of 2014.

***

Have the Red Sox ruined Xander Bogaerts?

The 21-year-old super prospect who played a key role in the Red Sox winning the 2013 World Series is in a serious slump.  Slumps are to be expected for any prospect but the problem with this one is that it seems to have been caused by the Red Sox and for reasons that cannot be justified.

Bogaerts was handed the starting shortstop job in 2014.  He had a slow start in the field, committing six errors, but he was showing signs of improvement and was hitting.  Despite that, the Red Sox decided to re-sign Stephen Drew to play shortstop and move Bogaerts to third base.

Major mistake.

As a shortstop, Bogaerts was hitting .296 with an OBP of .389 and an OPS of 816.  He had 3 home runs, 15 doubles, and 13 RBI as a shortstop as well in 53 games.  He had struck out 52 times (almost once per game) but he also had 25 walks.

Since moving to third base, he is hitting an anemic .139 and has an OPS of .415 in 29 games.  He looks completely lost at the plate, striking out 34 times with just 4 walks to his credit.  He has hit just as many home runs as a third baseman as he did at shortstop and also has 8 RBI since switching positions but has only 2 doubles.  His OBP since the move is .180.

Hopefully this small bump was coming anyways as veteran pitchers learned to exploit his weaknesses but to be safe, the Red Sox need to admit they were wrong in moving their top prospects position so early in a season when he was actually performing well (at the plate anyways) and get him back at shortstop.  Bogaerts and his agent, the evil Scott Boras, will remember the events of 2014 when he eventually becomes a free agent and it would be a shame to lose him to another franchise because he was bitter at losing his position unjustifiably as a rookie.

***

My NBA free agent predictions for today:

LeBron James to Cleveland.

Chris Bosh to Houston.

Carmelo Anthony to the Lakers.

Dwyane Wade to Chicago.

***

When is Peter Chiarelli going to pull the trigger on trading Johnny Boychuk in a move that will add the Bruins at least one forward who is capable of putting the puck in the net?

***

We're only 15 days away from the Patriots opening training camp.

I cannot wait to see Tom Brady try and beat the Darrelle Revis led secondary in 7-on-7 passing drills.

This will be the first year that the defense has the edge over the offense in Foxboro since the Super Bowl years of 2003 and 2004.  Hopefully that will be the difference in the franchise winning its fourth Lombardi Trophy of the Brady/Belichick era.

***

Enjoy Rubby De La Rosa tonight.

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