The Red Sox, with just 38 wins in their first 84 games, should become sellers. Even the distant hope of seizing one of the Wild Card spots (they are 8 games out of the Wild Card but would have to pass six teams to do so) should not be enough for general manager Ben Cherington to hold on to some of the veteran assets that could bring back the Red Sox a group of young prospects that could either be part of the future in Boston or be flipped in other deals to help fill holes on the big league club.
That means Koji Uehara, A.J. Pierzynski, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, and Jonny Gomes should all be in play for contending teams with needs. Uehara will be easier to move for higher return than the others but all of them could fill a need for a contender while bringing back prospects of value to the Red Sox.
One player the Red Sox should not be shopping is Jon Lester. Signing Lester - a free agent at the end of the season - to a new contract should be Cherington's top priority as the team navigates through a disappointing 2014 season and looks to instantly become a contender again in 2015.
Lester needs to be one of the veteran cornerstones of the future for this franchise. He is a proven winner, as his 2007 and 2013 World Series rings and 109 career wins prove, and at 30-years-old should have at least another five or six years of top level pitching in his future.
The team reportedly offered him a 4-year/$70-million deal in spring training that Lester was right to reject. While he has said he wants to stay in Boston, that contract offer was a slap in the face considering Homer Bailey (57 career wins and 28-years-old) signed a 6-year/$105-million extension with the Reds.
That should be the starting point for Lester in negotiations with the Red Sox. He should end up with a deal that looks something like 5-years and $115-million from Boston which gives them an ace to lead their rotation through 2019 and a leader for the next generation of pitchers expected to be in the majors within that time frame. I want Lester to stay in a Red Sox uniform and to be the guy that the likes of Henry Owens and Anthony Ranaudo and Rubby De La Rosa learn from for the rest of the decade.
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The NBA's free agency period is one of my favorite times of the year. Other than the boring and confusing salary cap rules, it's fun to watch teams spend waaaaaaaay too much money on players they're likely to try and trade within two or three years while waiting for the small handful of impact players to choose their team.
This summer will be focused on the futures of LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.
LeBron opted out of his contract with the Heat, along with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, but is expected to remain in Miami. The Heat desperately need to upgrade their supporting cast and if the rumors that Wade and Bosh are open to taking less money are true, Miami will be able to upgrade their roster which should keep James in Miami for the next few years.
If LeBron does not go back to Miami, the Lakers are a good fit for his landing place. While the Lakers aren't built to win a title in 2015, they have a proven track record of building teams that contend for long periods of time. A 2014-2015 core of LeBron, Kobe Bryant, and Pau Gasol (if he re-signs) would be competitive and the Lakers could move Julius Randle, their 2014 first round pick, in a deal to land another impact player. Cleveland, Chicago, Phoenix, Houston, and Golden State could also be potential landing spots for LeBron if he leaves South Beach.
Carmelo is likely to go to the Bulls. The Bulls are a terrific defensive team that needs a major upgrade on offense beyond the expected healthy return of Derrick Rose. Carmelo would fill that need and make the Bulls a much more complete team that would be one of the few teams with legitimate championship hopes heading in to the 2014-2015 season. Houston, Phoenix, or possibly returning to the Knicks, are also on the table for Carmelo.
As for the guys likely to be overpaid, Lance Stephenson of the Pacers and Utah's Gordon Hayward are two players with talent that are going to cash in but will likely not be able to live up to their new contracts.
Stephenson has been an excellent role player in Indiana's system but I'm not sure he can "earn" a salary with an average annual value (AAV) that will likely be worth ten figures a year. Hayward is likely to get similar money and although he's a good player, I don't think he can "earn" a deal with an AAV of ten figures either. The nature of the NBA is that teams will overpay players like Stephenson and Hayward in an effort to improve their teams and show their fans that they're serious about improving but once they realize the player is not worth the contract they were given, they look to move the player. If you're offered a bet on whether Stephenson or Hayward is with a different team than they sign with this summer by the summer of 2017, bet that they'll be on the move.
The Celtics have already overpaid one of their own, giving Avery Bradley a 4-year/$32-million contract. Bradley is an excellent defender with a developing offensive game but he's struggled to stay healthy.
He's a nice player with a potentially bright future but is he worth $8-million in AAV? I don't think so.
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Last week's NBA Draft saw the Celtics not make any trades and the team picked Oklahoma State point guard Marcus Smart with the sixth pick and Kentucky shooting guard James Young with the seventeenth pick.
Smart is a physical point guard with excellent size at 6-3 and 225-pounds. Smart should be an above-average defender immediately and with his strength offensively being the ability getting to the rim, he'll need to improve his perimeter shooting to become a consistent scorer in the NBA. Scouts rave about his competitiveness so it should be expected that he will improve his shot and become a good NBA player.
Young is a 6-6, 210-pound wing player. He is intriguing due to his athleticism and shooting stroke. He definitely needs to get stronger to become a rotation player on a playoff team but his potential to be a contributor as a wing scorer gives the Celtics excellent value with the seventeenth pick of the first round.
Taking two young guards will likely impact the immediate future of the Celtics. Rajon Rondo, the last holdover from the 2008 championship team, is not likely to want to hang around for a rebuilding plan and with him being scheduled to be a free agent in the summer of 2015 he should be trade bait.
One team with reported interest in Rondo is Sacramento. The Kings have some nice pieces in DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay and a floor leader like Rondo could make them a contender in the West. A package of Rondo, Brandon Bass, and a future draft pick might get the Celtics a return of Isiah Thomas, Ben McLemore, and Derrick Williams. The Kings would be adding two veterans in an attempt to contend in the West while the Celtics would get two young guards and a young forward to help in their rebuilding process.
The bottom line is that with the Celtics not looking like a contender for the next few years, Rondo is going to be playing somewhere new very soon.
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Although I initially did not like the news that Jarome Iginla was leaving the Bruins for the Avalanche, his advanced age (he turned 37 yesterday) and the potential salary cap implications for the Bruins if they kept him made his departure acceptable.
Iginla was fun to watch in his one season with the B's and while he's still capable of contributing to a contender, his loss is not a rubber stamp that the 2014-2015 Bruins will fail to win the Stanley Cup.
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The more I think about it, the more excited I am to see Darrelle Revis in a Patriots uniform and being employed in a Bill Belichick defense.
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For a hoops junkie like myself, it's been great to see local talent like Nerlens Noel (Everett High School, The Tilton School, Kentucky), Michael Carter-Williams (Hamilton-Wenham Regional High School, St. Andrew's School, Syracuse), Noah Vonleh (Haverhill High School, New Hampton School, Indiana), and Shabazz Napier (Charlestown High School, Lawrence Academy, UConn) be selected in the first round of the NBA Draft. Several other players who have played their prep school basketball in New England like Steven Adams (Notre Dame Prep, Pittsburgh), Mitch McGary (Brewster Academy, Michigan), and Nik Stauskas (St. Mark's School, Michigan) have jumped to the NBA.
Keep an eye on Rene Castro (Milton High School, Worcester Academy, Duquesne University), Jeremy Miller (Milton High School, New Hampton School, Boston College commit), Jalen Adams (Melrose High School, Cushing Academy, UConn commit), and Jared Terrell (Weymouth High School, Brewster Academy, Rhode Island commit) over the next few years to make similar jumps from New England to the NBA.
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