Four years ago, when LeBron James made the Decision to "take his talents" to South Beach and join forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, three things were certain.
1. The Heat would be loathed throughout the NBA.
2. The Heat would be on the short list of title contenders every year James, Wade, and Bosh were teammates.
3. The summer of 2014 would be an anxious time for the Heat because James, Wade, and Bosh could all exercise an early opt-out clause in their contracts to once again explore free agency.
After four years of the Heat being the most polarizing NBA team since Shaq and Kobe's Laker teams of the early 21st Century and them winning two titles and making the Finals all four seasons, we stand here today with James, Wade, and Bosh all as free agents. Are the Heat about to flame out?
The key to the whole deal is James, the best player in the NBA. If he stays in Miami, Wade and Bosh are likely to follow and the Heat will remain serious title contenders. If he leaves, the Heat are in trouble. It's that simple.
There are many arguments for James to stay but also just as many for him to leave. The biggest factor for James is the ability to find a team that can consistently contend for championships. The reason he may have to leave Miami to do so was evident in their Finals loss to San Antonio this year as it was clear that Wade is no longer the dominant player he once was due to injuries and that the team does not have enough quality depth around James to beat an elite team in a 7 game series.
Some people think the decision by James, Wade, and Bosh to opt-out of their current deals was so they could all take voluntary pay cuts in order for Pat Riley to add better role players to surround them. Their collective action did create $55-million in cap space for the Heat to re-sign them and to then upgrade their roster.
That made sense up until James declared he was looking for a maximum salary deal and then Bosh's agent said his client was not looking to take a pay cut.
Maximum deals for James and Bosh, plus re-signing Wade to a contract with an annual average value of at least $10-million would eat up over $50-million of that cap space, making it nearly impossible for the Heat to fill out their roster with better role players.
Is James staying in Miami with an aging roster that has little chance of being substantially improved? I don't think so. That leaves just a few teams with the money (or the ability to create the necessary salary cap space to pay him) and the appeal of contention to lure James off of South Beach.
The Lakers have the cash and the cache of a franchise that always finds a way to build a contender but they're not likely to be in the mix to win the title this season. Their roster is built around Bryant, who is still a great player as he nears his 36th birthday and 1500 career games (counting playoffs) but is also coming off a 2013-14 season in which he played only six games due to injury. A healthy Bryant (no sure thing), the re-signing of Pau Gasol (no sure thing either), and first round pick Julius Randle would be the core of James first Lakers team and while that could be enough to win the weaker Eastern Conference, they would be lucky to win a playoff round in the rough and tumble Western Conference. I wouldn't rule out the Lakers (especially if they can also land free agent Carmelo Anthony and have the prospect of having cap space open up when Kobe's contract expires) but I can't envision James wasting a year waiting for the Lakers to add pieces to become a contender.
The Bulls have cash too (and can create more space by trading Taj Gibson and/or using the amnesty clause on Carlos Boozer's corpse) and also have a team on the verge of contention. Derrick Rose's health is the big issue after knee problems robbed him of the last two seasons but he is expected to make a healthy return and Joakim Noah is one of the game's best all-around centers. The Bulls also have a nice supporting cast and Tom Thibodeau, one of the most respected coaches in the NBA. Can they land James? They've been linked more with Anthony but they could certainly emerge as James next team.
James' original team, the Cavaliers, are also in the mix and reports last night and this morning are saying they believe they can bring him back to Ohio. The Cavs have budding star Kyrie Irving at point guard and just drafted Andrew Wiggins with the first overall pick. Much like the potential Lakers offer, the Cavs might not be in position to win the Larry O'Brien trophy in 2015 but their offer at least is built around young talent to support James and they have a lot of cap space lined up for next summer to add more pieces. What hurts Cleveland's offer is that their owner Dan Gilbert became James' number one enemy when he publicly criticized him for leaving for South Beach in 2010 and that they botched the first pick of the 2013 draft, taking Anthony Bennett instead of Victor Oladipo, and the fourth pick of the 2012 draft, taking Dion Waters over Andre Drummond.
I hate to play the "what if" game and by changing a scenario in 2011, there's no guarantee they would be in the same situation in 2014 as they are now or would have had the chance to draft Player B one year if the drafted Player A the previous year. That said, Cleveland butchered their drafts in 2012 and 2013 and in the process might have cost themselves a shot at James. The Cavs had a need for a big man who could score to help out Irving, the top pick in the 2011 draft, and Drummond should have been their man. Instead they took Waiters, who was the 6th Man for Syracuse in 2011-2012. The 2013 draft was not a particularly strong one but Oladipo was a better prospect than Bennett and if they had done that, the Cavs would be able to sell James on a backcourt of Irving and Oladipo with a promising young center in Drummond.
Other teams potentially in the mix for James are Houston, Phoenix, and Golden State.
My prediction? James takes his two championship rings and heads home to Ohio to try and deliver Cleveland its first major sports championship since the Browns won the NFL title in 1964. However, I don't rule out the Lakers either.
If James does leave, Wade and Bosh have decisions to make.
Wade has only played for the Heat and would likely stay in Miami to protect his legacy (three titles) and help Riley recruit the players needed for their next title run. He could also leave to chase a title elsewhere with his hometown Bulls a possible destination. Wade is clearly not the player he once was and injures have limited his ability to explode to the rim but he could still be an important piece of a championship team.
Bosh might cash in elsewhere. The Rockets are reportedly making a push to add Bosh as a complement for Dwight Howard and James Harden. That would be an excellent spot for Bosh as the strength of his game - perimeter shooting - would likely mesh well with Howard's interior presence and the driving ability of Harden.
As I said above, it all comes down to James. If the four-time MVP decides to stay in Miami, they'll keep the band together and find a few supporting players to stay in contention for the next few years. If he decides to flee, Bosh is likely to leave and Wade could also leave. I do think he will go elsewhere, leaving Riley to decide for himself if he can pull off another rebuilding period or to ride off into the sunset of retirement.
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