A week ago, the Red Sox entered the All-Star break with a disappointing 43-52 record. That put them in last place in the A.L. East, 9.5 games behind the Orioles, and close to the bottom in the chase for one of the two Wild Card spots.
This morning, after a post-break three-game sweep of the Royals, the Sox are still at the bottom of their division but are now just 7.5 games back of the O's now. More importantly, in terms of making the playoffs, they are just 6 games out of being a Wild Card team.
So, can a 46-52 team make a playoff push?
While it's unlikely, they do have the pieces.
Let's start with the pitching. Jon Lester and John Lackey lead a starting rotation that has been bolstered by a recent turnaround by Clay Buchholz (3-1 with a 3.28 ERA in his last five starts) and the emergence of Rubby De La Rosa (3-2, 2.64). The bullpen - especially Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Andrew Miller - has been excellent all year. They definitely have the arms to pitch themselves into the playoffs.
The offense is another story. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia are having sub-par seasons per their career averages. It's so dramatic that I'll break it down for you.
Ortiz (career): .285 BA, .925 OPS, 35 HR, 117 RBI, 42 2B
Ortiz (2014): .249 BA, .822 OPS, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 19 2B
Ortiz' home run and RBI totals will probably match his career numbers but his batting average and OPS look like they'll finish as poorly as they did back in 2009, which was the last time before this season that he was not an A.L. All-Star.
Pedroia (career): .300 BA, .814 OPS, 46 2B, 15 HR, 77 RBI
Pedroia (2014): .274 BA, .714 OPS, 26 2B, 4 HR, 37 RBI
Pedroia's numbers are down across the board. The drop in his power production is so alarming that I'm surprised he has not been moved around more in the lineup because he's not worthy of hitting third (where he's hit the most in 2014) in a playoff team's lineup right now.
The bottom line is that Ortiz and Pedroia are going to need to pick it up significantly over the last 64 games for this team to have a chance at playing in the playoffs.
If they do start producing up to their regular standards, this offense has a chance. Brock Holt has been a revelation in the lead-off spot. Mike Napoli has been producing since coming back from his finger injury. Daniel Nava and Jackie Bradley, Jr. have both been better and with Shane Victorino returning this weekend, there's hope that the outfield will be productive over the last few months.
Another major question mark is at short stop. I believed that Xander Bogaerts should have been the regular short stop all year but the Red Sox obviously felt otherwise and have stuck by Stephen Drew since they brought him back in June which has kept Bogaerts at third base. Lately, Holt has had some starts at short stop. For now, I'd keep Holt at short and keep Bogaerts at third with Drew available to start once or twice a week (with Holt starting at third base those nights) and also be available as a defensive replacement late in games.
Here is what the lineup should look like for the last two-and-a-half months:
1. Holt, SS
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Ortiz, DH
4. Napoli, 1B
5. Nava/Jonny Gomes, LF
6. Victorino, RF
7. Bogaerts, 3B
8. David Ross/Christian Vazquez, C
9. Bradley, CF
Even if the pitching keeps producing and the offense figures itself out, the Red Sox have a long road to travel to make the playoffs. They have to catapult over six teams to sneak into the second Wild Card spot. That's not going to be an easy task.
The next two weeks are crucial in this playoff race. Their next ten games are against the Blue Jays (four in Toronto, three in Boston) and Rays (in Tampa Bay). Taking seven or eight of these games against teams that are above the Red Sox in both the division and Wild Card races would give them a better idea of where they stand before the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31.
If they're 54-54 or 53-55 and just four or five games out of the Wild Card chase, Ben Cherington might go out and upgrade the team with his sights on playing in October. If instead they're 48-60 or 49-59 and have lost ground in both races, Cherington will likely trade off some players with an eye on 2015.
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