Like a bear emerging from hibernation at the start of the spring thaw, TheBostonInsider is shaking off the cobwebs caused by the Patriots disappointing loss to the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game (and the high school basketball season) now that NFL free agency has started.
As I left work yesterday, the news had broken that Wes Welker had decided to leave the Patriots and Tom Brady to sign with Peyton Manning's Broncos. He turned down the reported 2-year/$10-million deal from the Patriots for a 2-year/$12-million contract from Denver.
Losing Welker is a serious blow to the Patriots offense, there is no sugar coating that. Since joining the Patriots in 2007 Welker has caught 672 passes, led the league in receptions three times, and caught 37 touchdown passes. His impact cannot be completely measured by statistics because there is no way to understand how many times Brady threw to Welker in a critical moment when the Patriots needed a first down or how many times the oppositions decision to double (or triple) cover Welker opened a passing lane for Brady to find another receiver.
Despite this, I trust that Bill Belichick knows what he's doing in allowing Welker to walk to an AFC rival. This is not me being a Belichick apologist. The fact is that Belichick has almost always proven to be correct when he makes a personnel decision that is unpopular with the fans. This goes back to his days in Cleveland when he dumped Bernie Kosar for Vinny Testaverde and has continued in New England with his decisions to part ways with the likes of Drew Bledsoe, Lawyer Milloy, Damien Woody, Deion Branch, Ty Law, and Richard Seymour. Now it's Welker. The Patriots have continued to churn out winning seasons and have continued to contend for (but not win) Super Bowls despite these losses and will most likely continue to do so next season. Yes, Tom Brady's presence at quarterback helps make Belichick look like a football genius but don't forget that in 2008 when Brady went down in the first quarter of the season's first game the Patriots still won 11 games.
The one thing I do worry about is Brady's mindset. We all know he loved to target Welker, a player who Brady also spent a lot of time with in the offseason. He just renegotiated his contract and took much less money than the market dictates a franchise quarterback should make in order to create the salary cap space that, I'm sure he believed, would be used to keep Welker and improve the team. In the long run, Brady's competitive drive will get him to develop a cohesiveness with the receivers that are brought in to replace Welker but it's never a good thing to upset the team's most important player.
The key thing now is not just how the Patriots will replace Welker, but also how they plan on spending their other available money to build a balanced team that is capable of winning the franchise's fourth Lombardi Trophy.
The Patriots did strike quickly to begin replacing Welker. Before the news set in that Welker was on his way to the Mile High City, word broke that the Patriots had agreed on a 5-year/$31-million deal with free agent receiver Danny Amendola, a member of the Rams since being drafted in 2009. This move has been anticipated for quite some time considering Amendola's similarities to Welker (both are Texas Tech products that catch a lot of passes) and his familiarity with the Patriots offense (he was coached by Josh McDaniels when the Patriots offensive coordinator held the same job in St. Louis in 2011). The 27-year-old Amendola is also four years younger than Welker. His best season came in 2010 when he caught 85 passes and 3 touchdowns in 16 games. This past season in just 11 games he caught 63 passes and 3 touchdowns. The drawbacks are Amendola's recent injury history (he missed 20 out of 32 games the past two seasons) and his lack of rapport with Brady, although that can be created in the offseason and in training camp.
Amendola joins Brandon Lloyd - another veteran of the 2011 Rams who has been rumored to possibly be released by the Patriots - as the only wide receivers under contract with the Patriots at the moment. With tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez on the roster, wide receiver is not a major need for the Patriots but they do need to add more quality depth. Greg Bedard of the Boston Globe wrote today that free agent Donald Jones is in for a visit today. Jones caught 41 passes and 4 touchdowns in 12 games for Buffalo last season. Big name free agents like Greg Jennings of the Packers and Victor Cruz of the Giants are still available and, possibly, this where Belichick wants to spend the savings Brady gave the team rather than on Welker. There are many other mid-level free agents like Jones the Patriots could target and the draft could also be an avenue for adding a receiver.
Staying on the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots need to make a decision on free agent right tackle Sebastian Vollmer and have also lost guard Donald Thomas to free agency.
The biggest focus for the Patriots should be their defense. Although there are some cornerstones on defense, like Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, and a solid young core, the team definitely needs to upgrade its defensive talent, especially in the secondary. While I will spare you the names of all the potential players the Patriots could target, it is important to know that they have not won a Super Bowl since making the offense the focal point of their team. Adding quality depth in the secondary at both cornerback and safety as well as adding situation role players at linebacker (someone to cover tight ends in passing situations and/or a pass rusher) and defensive line (pass rusher) would fill in nicely around the talent they already have.
Having a defense that can keep good teams around 20 points in January and February is going to cost the offense some of the explosiveness it has had the last several seasons but it might also be the deciding factor in whether or not Bill Belichick and Tom Brady raise the Lombardi Trophy next February. Losing Welker hurts the offense and it upsets the fans but if sacrificing him means the Patriots defense will improve to the point where it can start winning the Patriots games in the postseason, I'm on board with him going to Denver.
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