After eight weeks of football, the Patriots enter their bye week with a 5-3 record. That is good enough to lead the AFC East and put them in third place overall in the AFC behind the Houston Texans (6-1), who the Patriots play in December, and the Baltimore Ravens (5-2), who beat the Pats in Week 3.
While the good start has the Patriots back in contention for a Super Bowl berth, which would be their sixth since the 2001 season, there are reasons to doubt that this team will be playing for a championship in February.
The offense has been explosive for the most part but in losses to the Ravens and Seattle Seahawks, they struggled to put away the opposition which opened the door for last second losses. In both games, the Patriots held a fourth quarter lead but the offense could not run out the clock when it needed to and both times the opponent got the ball back and marched down for the winning score. It nearly happened to the Jets in Week 6 but Tom Brady marched the offense down the field for a field goal that tied the game and then again for the game-winning field goal in overtime.
That is also what happened to the Patriots in their loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI and it is a situation that causes concern. Yes, the Pats offense looks great when firing on all cylinders - such as in their 45-7 romp over the Rams in London yesterday - but when they need to make a play to put an opponent away, they have seemed to lack the proverbial "killer instinct."
It's hard to criticize the NFL's most explosive offense (they lead the league in yards per game with 440.8 and in points per game with 32.8) but the problem is, if they fail to get the job done, the defense struggles to make stops in pressure situations.
The Patriots defense has struggled through the first half of the season. They rank 23rd in yards allowed with 369.8 and 28th with 281.1 passing yards allowed. However, they are 12th in the NFL in points allowed per game, with 21.2.
The biggest problem on defense has been the secondary. Injuries have been an issue - starting safeties Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory have both missed several games - but no matter who has been back there, the play has been awful.
One bright spot for the secondary has been the emergence of rookies Tavon Wilson and Alphonso Dennard. Wilson has replaced Gregory while he's been out (Devin McCourty has shifted from cornerback to safety in Chung's absence) while Dennard continues to get more playing time as the season progresses. Neither is perfect but both have made plays (Wilson has three interceptions and Dennard has two) and have shown signs of promise.
The defense has received good play from veterans Vince Wilfork, Rob Nincovich, Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Spikes while rookies Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower have also been impressive. Bill Belichick's best hopes for the defense are continued good play from the front seven with enough gradual improvment from the secondary over the last half of the regular season that the position will not be an achilles heel for the team entering the playoffs.
Despite their warts, this is a very good football team. The bye week will afford many of their banged up players a chance to get healthy heading into the home stretch. The schedule gives them five home games. They should win between 11 and 13 games (although dates with Houston and San Francisco will be difficult) and enter the AFC playoffs as a top seed with a chance at a first round bye still a reality.
Can Brady and Belichick get to a sixth Super Bowl and capture their fourth Lombardi Trophy? We'll see. The Falcons, 49ers, Texans, and Giants are all excellent teams and in spite of their own injury problems, both the Ravens and Steelers are dangerous teams as well. The road through the AFC will probably go through Houston and if the Pats can survive that journey, a matchup up with the 49ers or Giants is a reality in New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII.
At this point, I would pick the Texans to win the AFC due to their defense and balanced offense while Eli Manning and the Giants would be my choice to survive in the NFC. However, there is a lot of football to be played between now and then so anything - including a Patriots championship - is possible.
With that said, here are my midseason awards and playoff predictions.
MVP
Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons
He's led the Falcons to an impressive 7-0 start.
Patriots MVP
Tom Brady
He performs at such a high level that you're surprised when he makes even the slightest mistake.
Defensive Player of the Year
J.J. Watt, DE, Texans
He's been the most dominant defender in the league.
Patriots Defensive Player of the Year
Vince Wilfork
The stats might not be flashy but he eats up blockers which allows Mayo, Spikes, and Hightower free reign at ball carriers.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins
The Redskins aren't going to the playoffs this year but the future is definitely bright with RG3.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Chandler Jones, DE, Patriots
This is the pass rusher Patriots fans have been waiting for since Willie McGinest left.
AFC Playoffs
1. Houston Texans
2. New England Patriots
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Denver Broncos
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Indianapolis Colts
Wild Card Round
Ravens over Colts
Broncos over Steelers
Divisional Round
Texans over Broncos
Patriots over Ravens
Championship Game
Texans over Patriots
NFC Playoffs
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. New York Giants
4. Chicago Bears
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Seattle Seahawks
Wild Card Round
Giants over Seahawks
Packers over Bears
Divisional Round
Packers over Falcons
Giants over 49ers
Championship Game
Giants over Packers
Super Bowl XLVII
Texans over Giants
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