Friday, November 25, 2011

Football Picks

TheBostonInsider had a wonderful Thanksgiving at the dinner table and even a 1-2 record on the NFL picks on that sacred day couldn't spoil the turkey, potatoes, vegetables, and time with the family.

Now that I have a full stomach and a little rest, I'm ready to make some cash.

All picks against the spread and home team in capitals.


Arizona (+3) over ST. LOUIS
I still can't believe the Cardinals traded a second round pick and Domiqiue Rodger-Cromartie for a quarterback that was 3-4 as a starter.  Larry Fitzgerald is shaking his head in agreement.  Despite that, I'm taking the Cardinals becase Sam Bradford, he of the 8-16 career record, hasn't been much better since leaving Oklahoma.

NY JETS (-9) over Buffalo
The Jets are fighting to stay alive in the AFC playoff race and catch a break because the Bills have completely fallen apart since their 4-1 start.

CINCINNATI (-7.5) over Cleveland
I was ready to pick the Browns to cover before reading that they are 2-7-1 versus the spread this season.  In a related note, the Bengals are 7-2-1 versus the spread in 2011.  24-9, Bengals.

Houston (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
The last time Matt Leinart had a running game like this, the Texas Longhorns won the BCS National Championship.  Gary Kubiak won't make the mistake Pete Carroll did on January 4, 2006 and have Leinart throw 40 passes, instead he will have his quarterback turn and hand the ball off at least 35 times to either Arian Foster or Ben Tate.

Carolina (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS
I made a blockbuster trade in one of my fantasy football leagues in which I gave up Aaron Rodgers (hoping the Packers would slowly put on the brakes in December), Wes Welker (consistently on the injury report since Halloween), and Greg Olsen (I had Vernon Davis on the bench) in exchange for Cam Newton, Matt Forte (how good did that Cutler injury work out for me?), and Antonio Brown.  Like Auburn a year ago, I will win the title directly because of Cam Newton's legs and right arm.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over TENNESSEE
With both teams hovering around .500 against the spread, I will take the team getting the extra half-point instead of the team playing with an injured 36-year-old quarterback.

ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota
The Falcons probably would have been my pick if Adrian Peterson were healthy and playing in the game.  Without him, the Vikings have virtually no chance to be competitive in the Georgia Dome.

Chicago (+4) over OAKLAND
The Jay Cutler injury may have killed the Bears chances of stealing the NFC title from Green Bay in January but Matt Forte's versatility (did I mention he's my fantasy football running back) will be too much for the Raiders to handle and on top of that, Carson Palmer will have a long day against the Bears defense.

SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
Would Bill Belichick even listen if Dan Snyder offered him total control of the Redskins with some kind of ridiculous $100-million/10-year contract?  Hey, no one ever though Rick Pitino would leave Kentucky.

Patriots (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Michael Vick was already uncertain to play and now that it looks like Nnamdi Asomugha won't dress on Sunday, it looks like the Patriots will move one step closer to locking up a bye in the AFC while still not proving that they are an elite Super Bowl contending team.

Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO
There is no reason to believe the Chargers won't stop their five-game losing streak against a weak Broncos team that is running a college offense.  Well, except Tim Tebow.  Give me the guy who makes shaky throws, opens hospitals, and has his team inspired and playing winning football.  Upset special: 26-24, Broncos.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss to the Patriots and now return home to face the favorites in the AFC.  It is going to be a long night at Arrowhead Stadium for whoever is playing quarterback for the Chiefs and the Steelers will let the national television audience get to sleep before 11pm.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over NY Giants
This is a must win for the Giants to stay in the hunt for the NFC East but I'm not buying Eli Manning coming through (despite his Super Bowl ring and 4th Quarter comeback in Foxboro earlier in the month) when the G-Men need it most. 

This Week: 1 - 2
Last Week: 5 - 6 - 1
Season: 79 - 76 - 5

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