If I Had A Vote For A.L. MVP

Bob Ryan, the great columnist from the Boston Globe, wrote an interesting piece today on the possibility of Red Sox centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury winning the American League's Most Valuable Player award.

This got me to thinking about who should be the A.L.'s MVP in 2011.

The candidates?  Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, and Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox.  Curtis Granderson and CC Sabathia of the Yankees.  Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander of the Tigers.  Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays.  Jered Weaver of the Angels.

(Apologies to Mark Teixeira but a .251 batting average just doesn't warrant consideration for the MVP even though he has 32 HR and 86 RBI.  The same goes to Josh Beckett because a lack of run support has denied him several wins but a 9-4 record keeps him out of the discussion despite a 2.17 ERA.)

Before the ballot is cast, let's break down the stats (thanks to Baseball-Reference.com) of my contenders.

Ellsbury - .319 BA, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 31 SB, .374 OBP, .890 OPS
Gonzalez - .350 BA, 18 HR, 92 RBI, 161 Hits, .411 OBP, .965 OPS
Pedroia - .311 BA, 15 HR, 60 RBI, .401 OBP, .880 OPS
Granderson - .273 BA, 28 HR, 86 RBI, .366 OBP, .927 OPS
Sabathia - 16-6, 2.81 ERA, 168 K's, 1.139 WHIP
Cabrera - .318 BA, 22 HR, 71 RBI, .425 OBP, .981 OPS
Verlander - 16-5, 2.30 ERA, 186 K's, .872 WHIP
Bautista - .315 BA, 33 HR, 76 RBI, 88 BB, .450 OBP, 1.096 OPS
Weaver - 14-5, 1.78 ERA, 150 K's, .940 WHIP

Pedroia, Sabathia, Cabrera, Verlander, and Weaver are all having excellent seasons for teams in the hunt for the playoffs but for now the argument comes down to Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Granderson, and Bautista.

Ellsbury has been the best leadoff hitter baseball has seen since Rickey Henderson was in his prime and Ichiro Suzuki was killing it for the Mariners.  He gets on-base, steals bases, hits for power, and plays a very good centerfield.  Recently, he has had a few "MVP moments," hitting walk-off hits on consecutive nights against the Indians.  Ellsbury boasts and impressive .383 BA and 25 RBI with two outs and runners in scoring position (RISP) and has a .319 BA and .405 OBP in Late and Close situations (plate appearances in the 7th Inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one run, or the tying run at least on deck).

Gonzalez has been worth every penny that the Red Sox gave him this winter.  He started hitting in April and has not stopped since then, carrying Boston out of its dismal 2-10 start to the top of the American League.  He currently leads the league in hits, batting average, and RBI.  His Late and Close numbers are not as good as Ellsbury's (.299 BA) but in tie games he has a .364 BA.

Granderson does not have the batting average to rival the other contenders but has been killing the ball when the Yankees win.  In the Yankees wins, Granderson has a .344 BA, 21 HR, 69 RBI, and a 1.112 OPS.  To discredit his critics that believe his success is largely a product of the short rightfield porch at Yankee Stadium, Granderson has 14 homers at home and 14 homers on the road.  His resume is aided by the fact that the Yankees offense is producing despite poor seasons by Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada and the injuries to Alex Rodriguez.

Bautista is the statistical monster playing on a bad team.  He leads the A.L. in home runs, walks, intentional walks (18), OBP, slugging (.646), and OPS.  He also has bounced back and forth between third base and rightfield in an unselfish attempt to do his best to help the Blue Jays stay competitive in the A.L. East.  It's tough to hold it against him that his team just isn't very good but it's different to succeed in a pressure situation like that in Boston or New York than it is in a losing situation like Toronto.

For me it comes down to Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrian Gonzalez, all homerism aside.

The deciding factor in casting my mythical vote will be how each player has done in the 12 games against the Yankees, the Red Sox biggest rival and (along with the Rangers) their biggest threat in the A.L.  The Red Sox games with the Yankees are pressure packed and have a life-or-death feel to them.  Performing at one's best in those games is the mark of an MVP and in such a close race, it is a good indicator of who is the MVP.

Player A has a .191 BA, .328 OBP, .711 OPS, 2 HR, and 11 RBI against the Yankees.

Player B has a .348 BA, .392 OBP, .979 OPS, 2 HR, 13 RBI against the Yankees.

Player B it is.  Bob Ryan was on to something.

Congratulations are in order to Jacoby Ellsbury.