Predicting the NBA Free Agency Landscape

For the last three years, many NBA teams have been doing anything and everything to create salary cap space with the hope of landing at least one of the superstars available in the greatest free agent class ever when teams can begin talking to prospective players on July 1. The Knicks ($34.5 million), Bulls ($29.9),Heat ($27.5) Nets ($27.1), Clippers ($16.8), Kings ($14.7), and Timberwolves ($13.1) all have the ability to add an impact player this summer. The Knicks, Bulls, Heat, and Nets are in a particularly good position to potentially add two marquee players from a group of free agents who double as NBA All-Stars. LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Joe Johnson, and Rudy Gay are ready to hit the open market at midnight tomorrow and they could be joined by Paul Pierce if he decides to terminate his contract with the Celtics. It has been the recreational choice of many writers to predict the destination of LeBron - the star of stars in all of this drama - and to speculate what other star will join him in his quest to win multiple championships. One popular fairytale had LeBron joing Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. Now that the free agency chariot is about to turn into a pumpkin, it is time for everyone to become a lot more realistic. As much as these players want to win championships, it is highly unlikely that they will all forfeit upwards of $50 million dollars over the life of their contracts to do so. Basketball is a game to many of us but it is a business for these men and to forfeit that type of money would be a ridiculous decision. That brings me to my predictions as to where these stars will land. These are simply guesses but unlike the majority of prognasticators, I am going to ignore the fantasy and focus on the reality. (Keep in mind that players can make more money and sign for an extra year with their own team and that the difference is roughly $19 million a year for five years if they sign with a new team versus roughly $21 million a year for six years if they choose to stay with their own team.) LeBron James James is the biggest prize in this class and the rumors of where he will land have been running wild for over two years. The Knicks have lusted after him and have created enough space under the salary cap to land him and possibly one other big name free agent. The problem is that the Knicks have no other talent to lure LeBron and a wing man. By choosing the Knicks, he is moving farther away from a title than he is in Cleveland. I think that James will stay with the Cavs, but on a short-term deal. The team that makes the most sense for him in the long-term is the Nets but they are not quite ready to compete for a title and they do not move into their new Brooklyn arena for another two years. By 2013, I expect the "King" to be running with the Nets but he will remain in Cleveland for now. Dwayne Wade D-Wade should be a lock to stay in South Beach. He already has one championship under his belt and should be in a position to compete for multiple titles in the near future if Pat Riley can recruit another star to be his running mate. Dirk Nowitzki Nowitzki terminated his contract but will stay with the Mavericks. However, by becoming a free agent this summer, he has given himself the opportunity to sign a long-term deal with Dallas and ensure the possible 2011 lock-out will not cost him money after a new collective bargaining agreement is signed. (For the same reasons, I expect Paul Pierce to terminate his deal with the Celtics and re-sign with them.) Chris Bosh This is the first of these stars who I truly believe will leave his current situation. The Toronto Raptors are nowhere near contending for a championship and Bosh would be crazy to waste his prime playing for a team with no title aspirations. Miami and New York make a lot of sense for the 6-11 power forward but I think the best spot for him is in Chicago. The Bulls have a very good center in Joakim Noah, an All-Star caliber point guard on the verge of becoming a star in Derrick Rose and a quality small forward in Luol Deng. The Bulls would also have the ability to sign another free agent to go along with Bosh. Amar'e Stoudemire The Suns power forward has a nice thing going for him in Phoenix, playing alongside future Hall of Fame point guard Steve Nash. The problem for Amar'e is that Nash is getting closer to the end of his career and the Suns do not look like they are ready to knock off the Lakers and win the Western Conference in 2011. Stoudemire would be an excellent fit with the Heat. Playing with Dwayne Wade would create a powerful 1-2 combination that would make Miami an instant title contender. Another possibility would be to join LeBron in Cleveland via a sign-and-trade scenario but the weather in South Beach is a lot more appealing than spending the winter on the shores of Lake Eire. Carlos Boozer Boozer would be wise to stay in Utah with Deron Williams running the show. However, Boozer could find a better situation for himself in the Eastern Conference as he would be an appealing door prize for whatever team fails to land Bosh or Stoudemire. In this case that would be the Knicks and every season ticket holder at Madison Square Garden jst threw up in their mouth at the thought of getting Boozer instead of LeBron. Joe Johnson Like Carlos Boozer, Joe Johnson will be an attractive secondary option for teams that strikeout with LeBron and D-Wade. How many Knicks fans just got sick again at the thought of a Johnson-Boozer combination instead of the dream scenario of LeBron and Bosh? Joining Bosh in Chicago also makes sense for Johnson. Rudy Gay The New Jersey Nets are on the upswing. They were bought by Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov and are planning on moving from the Jersey swamps to fancy new digs in Brooklyn by 2013 at the latest. They also have some nice pieces on their team, led by point guard Devin Harris (a 2009 All-Star), center Brook Lopez, and draft picks Derrick Favors and Damion James. If the Nets fail to attract LeBron this summer, Rudy Gay would be an excellent under-the-radar signing as this team tries to return to the top of the Eastern Conference. Signing Gay would also create the opportunity for the Nets to add a role player like Orlando's J.J. Redick.