Football Picks

Where is the love? We all know that winning breeds jealousy so it isn't too hard to understand why most of America hates Bill Belichick and his Patriots. Belichick has the three Super Bowls, Tom Brady, and enough wins to last the Cincinnati Bengals for 20 years. The SpyGate fiasco from a year ago brought some unwanted negative attention but when coaches such as Brian Billick (winning coach in Super Bowl XXXV) claim that Belichick was simply doing what most coaches do in monitoring the opposing sideline, you have to think that the hits he took were coming from sore losers. I get that people hate Belichick but there has to be some credit thrown his way for having the Pats tied atop the AFC East with a 5-2 record without Brady or a competent defensive secondary. This Sunday, he will head into enemy territory and try to put the Colts (3-4) season on life support. A week from Sunday, he will try and wrestle away the division lead from the Bills. If the Pats are 6-2 on Monday and 7-2 a week from Monday, maybe then Belichick will get some long overdue props. All picks are against the spread (Boston Globe, Herald truck late again on Friday) and home teams are in capitals. NCAA BC (-4) over Clemson Oregon (+3) over CALIFORNIA TEXAS TECH (+4) over Texas Miami (+2) over VIRGINIA NOTRE DAME (-4.5) over Pittsburgh Last Week: 3 - 2 Season: 15 - 24 - 1 NFL Patriots (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS Arizona (-3) over ST. LOUIS Atlanta (-3) over OAKLAND NY Jets (+5.5) over BUFFALO CHICAGO (-12.5) over Detroit CLEVELAND (-1.5) over Baltimore Miami (+3.5) over DENVER Jacksonville (-7.5) over CINCINNATI MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Houston Dallas (+9) over NY GIANTS Philadelphia (-6.5) over SEATTLE Tampa Bay (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY TENNESSEE (-5.5) over Green Bay WASHINGTON (-2) over Pittsburgh Last Week: 9 - 4 - 1 Season: 55 - 56 - 7

Random Thoughts (October 30, 2008)

I know that I promised previews for all of the NBA divisions, the NBA season as a whole, the Celtics, and a recap/look forward of the Red Sox but my home computer is on the disabled list. I will get to all of those subjects as soon as possible... I had the pleasure of meeting Terry Francona yesterday. The Red Sox manager was at the high school where I teach to watch his daughter play in her volleyball all-star game. I caught Tito before the game started and chatted with him for a few minutes about the Red Sox season and all of the enjoyment he has brought to Red Sox fans in his five seasons in the dugout. I'm sure he gets bothered like that all the time in public and I did feel bad about stealing his ear but I have to say he was extremly personable and came off as a great guy. I did get him to admit (the obvious) that Mike Lowell was a lot more hurt than anyone was letting on. I did not have the heart to ask about Manny... How upset are the producers at NBC this week? The 5-2 Patriots and Matt Cassel travel to Indianapolis to play Peyton Manning and the 3-4 Colts. It's the NFL on NBC... Everyone in America outside of the greater Philadelphia area was pulling for the Rays but congratulations are in order for the World Series champion Phillies. Talk about a potential dynasty. The Phillies offense features Jimmy Rollins (2007 N.L. MVP), Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard (2006 -- and likely 2008 -- N.L. MVP) who are all entering their primes and a pitching staff led by dominant young lefty Cole Hamels and dominant veteran closer Brad Lidge. I hate to brag but I called the Phillies to win the Series all of October. It wasn't just the Rays, I don't think the Red Sox could have stopped the Phillies either... If Penn State runs the table in the Big 10 and reaches the BCS Championship Game, how could you not be rooting for Joe Paterno to win a national championship at age 83... The Bruins are keeping me very interested... Why can't Greg Oden stay healthy? Portland would be a force with Oden playing at full strength. Of course, I would have posted that last week if my computer was healthy... Enjoy The Office tonight...

Football Picks

Last week was a successful one for TheBostonInsider. After looking foolish in my college picks all year, I finally banged out a winning week. My NFL picks are still hovering around the .500 mark but it's better to be so-so than be a complete loser (words to live by!). On a side note, I took the Phillies (+120) in the World Series. Looks good with the series tied 1-1 heading back to Philly for Games 3-5. All picks are against the spread and home team is in capitals. My local corner store was out of Herald's today so this is the source of my lines for the NCAA picks. The NFL lines are courtesy of ESPN. NCAA VANDERBILT (-10.5) over Duke Alabama (-5) over TENNESSEE Oklahoma State (+12) over TEXAS Virginia Tech (+5.5) over FLORIDA STATE Texas Tech (+1) over KANSAS Last Week: 4 - 1 Season: 12 - 22 - 1 NFL DALLAS (+1) over Tampa Bay Washington (-8) over DETROIT MIAMI (+3.5) over Buffalo PATRIOTS (-3) over St. Louis New Orleans (+3) over San Diego (LONDON) NY JETS (-9) over Kansas City Atlanta (+5) over PHILADELPHIA CAROLINA (-2) over Arizona BALTIMORE (-5.5) over Oakland Cincinnati (+4.5) over HOUSTON JACKSONVILLE (-1.5) over Cleveland NY Giants (+1) over PITTSBURGH Seattle (+7.5) over SAN FRANCISCO TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Indianapolis Last Week: 7 - 6 Season: 46 - 52 - 6

Random Thoughts (October 24, 2008)

In Arizona, a legendary leader is stepping down and will be replaced by a succesor who is not nearly as experienced or accomplished. Senator John McCain? No, Arizona basketball coach Lute Olson. Coach Olson retires after 25 years in Tucson. His record at Arizona was 589-187 (he was 780-280 overall as a Division 1 coach) and led the Wildcats to the Final Four four times, including the national championship season of 1997. Being a west coast guy, Olson was often overlooked by the national media outlets who were obsessed with the Rick Pitino's of the coaching universe. Olson is a Hall of Fame coach (2002) and is one of the great college coaches of all-time. Arizona will certainly miss him. I know I will, his teams were always fun to watch... I would be lying if I told you that I thought BC would be 5-1 and ranked #23 in the AP poll. Their game Saturday at North Carolina is crucial. The Eagles are in a four-way tie with Florida State, Wake Forest, and Maryland for first place in the ACC Atlantic Division. Winning the division would give BC their second consecutive berth in the ACC Championship Game, which promises the winner at least a trip to the Orange Bowl... The Phillies offense has been invisible through the first two games of the World Series and they have only Cole Hamels to thank for earning a split in Tampa Bay. Maybe they should watch film of how the Rays manufactured their runs in Game 2. The safety squeeze that scored the fourth run was all the evidence one needs to understand that Joe Maddon is an elite manager... I know the NBA previews were promised but my home computer is filled with more viruses than a Times Square hooker right now. I'll get on it this weekend... Enjoy Wes Welker on Sunday...

Random Thoughts (October 22, 2008)

My obituary for the 2008 Red Sox will be forthcoming but for now I just want to extend my congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for winning the American League. The '08 Red Sox were a very good team but they were not good enough to overcome a very deep and very talented Rays squad. Yes, a healthy Mike Lowell would have made a difference but I can not say for certain if it would have put the Red Sox over the top. Tampa's pitching, defense, and offense were better than Boston's and that is why the World Series will open in Florida tonight and not Massachusetts. After fighting off the Yankees for the last decade, it is nice that the Sox now have a new foe in the A.L. East. The Sox should contend for the World Series again in 2009 but with the Rays, Yanks, and the Blue Jays in their division, just making the playoffs will require a great effort. Along with my look back at the '08 team, I will also provide a look into the immediate future for the Sox, which should surface at some point over the weekend... While the network executives at Fox are crying because they didn't get a Boston-L.A. World Series or a Boston-Philadelphia World Series, baseball fans should be looking forward to the Tampa Bay-Philadelphia matchup. The Rays are everyone's favorites right now if you don't live in eastern Pennsylvania or southern Jersey. They are young and exciting and new to most of the nation. If you have not watched that much baseball this summer, the Rays are a prohibitive favorite. I am not in that camp. I truly believe the Phillies are a better team. This is similar to the 2006 World Series when the Tigers came out of nowhere to win the A.L. but were knocked off by the Cardinals. The Phillies offense features the dynamic Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell. It is one of the few N.L. offenses that could survive in the A.L. Their starting pitching is deep, led at the top by Cole Hamels and Brett Myers. The bullpen is anchored by the dominating Brad Lidge. I have allowed doubt to cloud my judgement on the Rays all year but that is not the case here. I just believe the Phillies are a better team, plain and simple. Phillies in 6... I am going to miss Rodney Harrison. Harrison tore his quad during Monday's impressive 41-7 win over the Broncos and at age 38, that was probably the last game in the NFL for the hard hitting safety as a player. Well it is never easy to replace a player with the stature of Harrison, especially heading into Week 8, I expect Bill Belichick or Scott Pioli to place a phone call to veteran safety John Lynch, who has been sitting at home since being cut by the Pats at the end of the preseason. Lynch is older and has lost a step but so had Harrison. I would rather see Lynch in the secondary at this point than Brandon Meriweather. Meriweather has played better of late but I like him coming off the bench right now, it is a role in which he is flourishing. I'm still waiting for the call to Ty Law as well. A better secondary makes this a better defense and a better defense makes this team a contender in the AFC... My Celtics preview is on the way... How 'bout those Cowboys? Jerry Jones might be forced to get rid of the entire team if this keeps up... The Jerod Mayo Era is upon us. Enjoy it... The Bruins are creeping up in my rearview mirror. Phil Kessel is showing signs of being a S-T-A-R... Enjoy Cole Hamels tonight...

Orange You Glad I'm Paying Attention

As a college football fan living a few miles outside of Boston, my options for watching big time football are few and far between. Sure, Boston College makes a little bit of noise on the national level every once in a while. Just last year, BC won eleven games and their quarterback Matt Ryan was mentioned as a Heisman candidate. They had a chance to play in the Orange Bowl but were beaten by Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game and ended up playing in the Champs Sports Bowl. But other than the occassional BC team, football in the northeast is pretty weak. However, there was a time when a football team from the northeast was a true contender. They played their home games in front of 50,000 screaming maniacs, they consistently played and won major New Years Day bowl games, and sent their top players to the NFL. That school is Syracuse. In the name of all college football fans in the northeast who want to watch a BCS bowl game that has one of our own teams playing, it is time for Syracuse to change head coaches and bring in the one man who can return the Orangemen back to national contenders. That man is Chip Kelly, the current offensive coordinator at the University of Oregon. Kelly is the perfect candidate to make Syracuse the dominant team in the Big East and a national powerhouse. He is an offensive genius. When he was calling the offense at his alma mater, the University of New Hampshire, it was always worth the 50 minute ride to Durham to see the innovative schemes designed by Kelly that made the Wildcats a contender in the FCS (formerly 1-AA) ranks. His last quarterback at UNH, Ricky Santos, won the Walter Payton Award that goes to the top offensive player at the FCS level under the direction of Kelly. Kelly's work at UNH did not go unnoticed. He replaced Gary Crowton at Oregon after the 2006 season and the jump to FBS has given Kelly's talents the national stage that they deserved. In 2007, the Oregon Ducks were ranked as high as #2 in the country as a result of the dynamic offense Kelly brought to Eugene. Quarterback Dennis Dixon was a favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and Oregon had legitimate hopes of winning the national championship before Dixon suffered a serious knee injury, ending his season. Kelly's offense still set the single season records at Oregon for points (38.15 per game) and total offense (467.54 per game) in 2007 and the team went on to crush South Florida (a member of the Big East) in the Sun Bowl by a score of 56 - 21. In the Sun Bowl, Oregon amassed 25 first downs, 353 rushing yards, 180 passing yards (behind former fourth-string QB Justin Roper), and saw 2008 NFL first round pick Jonathan Stewart rush for 253 yards and one touchdown. If Syracuse chooses to replace Greg Robinson, who is an underwhelming 8 - 33 since becoming the head man at the 'Cuse in 2005, then there will be plenty of candidates lining up for a job that is potentially one of the best in the country. Lane Kiffin, formerly of the Oakland Raiders, will be mentioned. Turner Gill of nearby Buffalo and former UMass coach Mark Whipple will have their names tossed into the mix. Florida assistant coach Steve Addazio and New Orleans Saints assistant coaches Joe Vitt and Ed Orgeron will also be on the list. No candidate fits as well as Kelly. Kelly has ties to the east coast from his days at UNH, when he regularly mined talent rich New Jersey and Pennsylavania for players and has forged ties on the west coast in his tenure at Oregon. Kelly has proven he can recruit with the big boys -- Oregon was a finalist for current Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor based on Kelly's affiliation with the Ducks. A quick look at his page on the recruiting mega-site Rivals shows Kelly is involved with some of the top players from Texas, California, and Florida. If the faithful in Syracuse want to return to the days of playing in the Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar Bowl games then Chip Kelly is the only candidate. He can recruit the next Donovan McNabb to play quarterback, the next Marvin Harrison to play receiver, and the next Ernie Davis, Jim Brown and Jim Nance to run the ball. His coaching resume proves he build a championship-caliber offense. If Syracuse athletic director Dr. Daryl Gross wants his school to be a real contender once again, the only option is Chip Kelly.

Football Picks

I mentioned it earlier in the Random Thoughts post, but the at-bat by Coco Crisp in the eighth inning was his best as a member of the Red Sox. With the team trailing 7-6, Mark Kotsay was on second base with two outs. Crisp fouled off fastball after fastball delivered by Rays reliever Dan Wheeler. Finally, on the tenth pitch, Crisp lined a fastball into right field that scored Kotsay and tied the game. Coco has received his fair share of criticism for his struggles at the plate in his three years but last nights effort was truly remarkable. Any Red Sox fan who said Crisp would come through last night was lying. But the bottom line is that he came through when it counted and his team will play at least one more game. Now, coming through when it counts does not apply to my picks. All picks are against the spread and home team is in capitals. NCAA Georgia Tech (-2.5) over CLEMSON BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) over Virginia Tech Pittsburgh (-3) over NAVY Missouri (+5.5) over TEXAS ARIZONA (+2.5) over California Last Week: 1 - 4 Season: 8 - 21 - 1 NFL Tennessee (-8) over KANSAS CITY BUFFALO (-1) over San Diego CINCINNATI (+9.5) over Pittsburgh Baltimore (+3) over MIAMI Dallas/ST. LOUIS -- OFF THE BOARD (Romo injury) Minnesota (+3) over CHICAGO New Orleans (+3) over CAROLINA NY GIANTS (-10.5) over San Francisco HOUSTON (-9.5) over Detroit NY Jets (-3) over OAKLAND Cleveland (+7.5) over WASHINGTON GREEN BAY (+1) over Indianapolis TAMPA BAY (-10.5) over Seattle PATRIOTS (-3) over Denver Last Week: 7 - 7 Season: 39 - 46 - 2

Random Thoughts (October 17, 2008)

Just when you thought they were dead and finished the Red Sox storm back from a 7-0 deficit to rally for a 8-7 victory over the Rays in Game 5 of the ALCS, extending the series to a sixth game. Daisuke Matsuzaka continued the team's string of poor starts against the explosive Rays lineup, ending his night after allowing five runs in four innings. After Daisuke's early exit, the bullpen allowed just two runs (both by Manny Delcarmen) and kept the game from turning into a complete rout. Heading into the bottom of the seventh inning, the Sox trailed 7-0 and fans were on their way home. But then Dustin Pedroia hit a two-out RBI single to plate the first Boston run of the night, followed by a towering three-run homerun by David Ortiz to cut the Rays lead to 7-4. In the eighth, J.D. Drew blasted a two-run homer and then Coco Crisp tied the game with a two-out RBI single after a tremendous at-bat. In the ninth, after Pedroia grounded out and Ortiz struck out, Youkilis reached on an infield hit and advanced to second on a rare throwing error by Evan Longoria. After Jason Bay was intentionally walked, Drew belted a single over the head of Gabe Gross, giving the BoSox the dramatic victory. Even if last night was just the last punch thrown by the beat up defending champs, it was well worth it. The Sox are not just playing a hungry young team, they are fighting injuries that have kept them from being at full speed. Mike Lowell will have surgery on his hip next week, Josh Beckett's oblique muscle is keeping him from being his usual dominant playoff self, and I think Ortiz' wrist is more hurt than he is letting on. Still, the pressure is now squarely on the Rays as the series heads back to Tampa Bay for Game 6 (and a possible Game 7). The stories of the Red Sox ALCS comebacks against the Yankees in 2004 and Indians in 2007 are everywhere today. If Beckett can channel the spirit of Curt Schilling from '04 and Jon Lester can bounce back from a poor Game 3 start, the Red Sox will be facing the Phillies with a full head of steam. If not, they will have at least closed out the last night of Fenway with a bang. Either way, you have to love these Red Sox. They never quit and can not be counted out until the last out has been recorded... Matt Cassel or Kevin O'Connell? Wait, can either one of them play defense? The Patriots quarterback situation is obviously a position of weakness with Tom Brady out but it is far from the only reason why this team is sitting at 3-2 following their embarassing 30-10 loss to the Chargers on Sunday night. The defensive secondary is a complete joke. Deltha O'Neal and Ellis Hobbs are not as bad as they have looked but it is ridiculous to believe that either one is capable of matching up with an elite receiver. Rodney Harrison was once a great player but he is too old to be an impact player at safety and James Sanders just isn't good enough to be an impact safety. Brandon Meriweather, Terrence Wheatley, and Jonathan Wilhete have shown flashes of promise but are not ready for prime time just yet. The secondary is getting no favors from the defensive line and linebackers. There is almost never any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is surprising when you think about the talent in the front seven. I find it hard to believe they can't get after the passer with Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Mike Vrabel, and Adalius Thomas up front. At this point of the season there are not too many answers. The old Bill Parcells saying "You are what you are" may be simple but it is 100% true. I'm more than a little surprised that Belichick hasn't reached out to free agent Ty Law yet but at his age, Law won't be able to just walk in and fix the problems defending the pass. The Pats host the Broncos on Monday night. Jay Cutler leads an explosive passing offense for the Broncos and I fear what his top target, Brandon Marshall, will do to O'Neal and Hobbs... After plowing through Boys Will Be Boys, the terrific look at the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990s written by Jeff Pearlman, I have now shifted to The Genius, David Harris' biography of the legendary Bill Walsh. Both are definitely worth your time... Now that the Red Sox have extended the ALCS, I doubt I will make my season debut at Alumni Stadium on Saturday night when BC hosts Virginia Tech... The Office was its usual amazing self last night. The addition of fellow dimwit and potential love interest Holly has improved Michael's character and Dwight continues to impress with his affair with Angela. I'm not too sure where the simmering tension between Jim and Pam is heading but I trust it will end in laughs... My longstanding hatred of Duke aside, I think I will take my first pilgrimmage to Tobacco Road this winter. On January 17, Duke hosts Georgetown in the afternoon and then UNC welcomes in Miami later that night. For a college hoops junkie, that would be the ultimate fix... Enjoy Beckett tomorrow night...

NBA Pacific Division Preview

This is the first segment of TheBostonInsider's 2008-09 NBA preview. For each of the six NBA divisions, I will break down my predicted order of finish and some things to look for from each team. I am starting with the Pacific because I want to work my way from west to east so I can finish with an in-depth look at the Celtics. When looking over my predeictions do not forget that I picked the Red Sox in 6 over the Rays in the ALCS. 1. Los Angeles Lakers 2007-08 Regular Season: 57-25, Division Champs 2007-08 Playoffs: Lost to Boston in NBA Finals The Lakers rebounded from the Kobe-Shaq divorce to win the Western Conference a year ago but then they ran into the Celtics and were destroyed in the Finals. This edition of the Lakers has serious championship hopes. Kobe Bryant leads a killer offense that also showcases Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Andrew Bynum returns from a knee injury that kept him out of the entire playoffs. If the Lakers had a physical presence like Bynum in the Finals, the outcome could have been a lot different. Phil Jackson has his work cut out for him in trying to keep Kobe focused on playing within the team for a full 82 and then the playoffs. In a conference as deep as the West, a few bad games from #24 could put the Lakers in the bottom half and on the road for the playoffs. Team MVP: Bryant Player to Watch: Bynum 2. Phoenix Suns 2007-08 Regular Season: 55-27, 2nd in Pacific 2007-08 Playoffs: Lost to San Antonio in 1st Round Just a few years after the Suns lit up every scoreboard in the NBA and made Seven Seconds or Less into one of favorite basketball books, it seems that the Steve Nash Show is on its last legs. Gone is Mike D'Antoni, who is off to try and save the Knicks (God help him). New coach Terry Porter has the job of squeezing at least one more good run out of Nash and fellow aged veterans Shaquille O'Neal and Grant Hill. The Suns do have interesting young talent but the questions is if they have enough to win a championship. Amare Stoudemire is legitimate stud but his fellow young vets Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa tend to be too inconsistent. Team MVP: Nash Player to Watch: Alando Tucker 3. Golden State Warriors 2007-08 Regular Season: 48-34, 3rd in Pacific 2007-08 Playoffs: None Even with the loss of Baron Davis and the injury/suspension of Monta Ellis, things look good in Golden State. In fact, if it were not for the black clouds over the head of Ellis, I think the Warriors could challenge for second place in this division. The Warriors lost Davis to the Clippers but gained Corey Maggette in revenge. They have active young big men Andris Biedrins, Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randoph, and Brandan Wright to make things happen inside. Maggette will be joined on the wing by Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson. Marcus Williams will hold down the point guard position until Ellis returns. If things fall right, the Warriors could do some serious damage. Team MVP: Jackson Player to Watch: Randolph 4. Sacramento Kings 2007-2008 Regular Season: 38-44, 4th in Pacific 2007-08 Playoffs: None The Kings were ever so close to winning the West just a few years ago but Shaq, Kobe, and Robert Horry did them in and then Chris Webber got old and, well, things fell apart. The Kings have done a solid effort in rebuilding and could be in contention again in the near future. Kevin Martin might be the best player in the NBA that no one knows about and is a nice piece to build around. Young big men Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, and Shelden Williams have promise and a nice roster of veterans (Brad Miller, Bobby Jackson, John Salmons) provide some stability. This team is not playoff material quite yet but is moving in the right direction. Team MVP: Martin Player to Watch: Donte Greene 5. Los Angeles Clippers 2007-08 Regular Season: 23-59, Last in Pacific 2007-08 Playoffs: None Just when it looked like the Clippers would add Baron Davis to a nucleus featuring Elton Brand and Corey Maggette, Brand bolted for Philadelphia and Maggette jumped up the California coast to the Warriors. Bill Simmons and the rest of Clipper Nation will suffer through another miserable season. Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman are both above average in the paint and should help the development of rookie DeAndre Jordan. Ricky Davis should be let go to make room for second year wing forward Al Thornton. First round pick Eric Gordon has the ability to be a special player in the NBA for a long time. Steve Novak, one of the best shooting forwards in the league, could help a contender. Team MVP: Baron Davis Player to Watch: Gordon

Random Thoughts (October 14, 2008)

After riding Daisuke Matsuzaka to a victory in Game 1, almost every Red Sox fan on the planet -- even the few who exercise common sense -- would have believed that the Rays were overmatched in the ALCS with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester going for the Hometown 9 in Games 2 and 3. It certainly is not fun to be dead wrong. Tampa Bay has stormed back to take a 2-1 lead in the ALCS behind a great effort by the bullpen in Game 2 and an attacking lineup and great pitching by Matt Garza in Game 3. For those of you who failed to pay attention to the incredible load of talent on the Rays, Games 2 and 3 were a showcase for Garza, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Dioner Navarro, and the rest of Joe Maddon's gang. I'm not doubting the Red Sox chances to win this series but for those of you who believe that this is 2004 and 2007, you are mistaken. If the Red Sox lose tonight, they will watch the Rays in the World Series. Tampa Bay is too talented and the Red Sox are too banged up to come back from a 3-1 deficit. The Red Sox need David Ortiz to morph back into Big Papi tonight and they need a great outing from Tim Wakefield. Without both, it's time to get ready for 2009... Yes, the Patriots looked like a terrible team on Sunday in San Diego. And as bad as the quarterback played, the reason why the Pats are so mediocre is the defense. Even with Tom Brady under center, this Patriots team would have taken a giant step backwards. The defense is old and can't get off the field against a good offense. The days of Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison making big plays are long gone. The vaunted defensive line of Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren get beaten up against a good offensive line. Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas are not getting after the quarterback. The secondary is a joke. For the Pats to rebound and make the playoffs, the defense needs to make plays. Bill Belichick needs to get his defensive coordinator Dean Pees and secondary coach Dom Capers on the same page to produce a blitz scheme that pressures opponents into mistakes and takes some of the heat off of an overmatched secondary. I want to see some of the younger guys get more of a shot. I want to see if rookie linebackers Shawn Crable and Gary Guyton have what it takes to be NFL players. This is not a Super Bowl team right now, there is nothing to lose. With Brady out, Belichick needs to take advantage and build for the next five years. Working in Crable and Guyton will give his linebacking corps young legs and depth. Finding out if rookie cornerback Terrence Wheatley can cover anyone helps this team down the road. Coming off the 18-1 season of a year ago, I never thought I would want the Pats to use 2008 as a rebuilding year but that is what is facing this team. The sooner the heads of state in Foxboro come to this realization, the better it will be for 2008 and for the future... Six games does not make a career but how can you not be rooting for Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan... I hope the Buffalo Bills can find a way to land Tony Gonzalez. If the Pats are not going to contend, I hope the long suffering fans in upstate New York can make a push for the AFC Championship... Danny Ainge found Lottery value in trading cash to the Wizards for the rights to Bill Walker, the 44th pick in the Draft. Health will be a concern for Walker but if those knees hold up, the C's found themselves a player... Midnight Madness tonight... Enjoy Tim Wakefield tonight...

Football Picks

I apologize if you stopped by here for the witty banter. I am too focused on the Red Sox being back in the ALCS and the Patriots playing the Chargers on Sunday night. All picks are against the spread and home team is in capitals. NCAA Texas (+6.5) over Oklahoma Louisiana State (+6) over FLORIDA WISCONSIN (+6) over Penn State MISSOURI (-14) over Oklahoma State East Carolina (-6) over VIRGINIA Last Week: 1 - 4 Season: 7 - 17 - 1 NFL NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Oakland Baltimore (+4) over INDIANAPOLIS Cincinnati (+5.5) over NY JETS Carolina (+1.5) over TAMPA BAY MINNESOTA (-13) over Detroit ATLANTA (+3) over Chicago Miami (+3) over HOUSTON WASHINGTON (-13.5) over St. Louis Jacksonville (+3.5) over DENVER Philadelphia (-5) over SAN FRANCISCO ARIZONA (+5) over Dallas SEATTLE (-2) over Green Bay Patriots (+5) over SAN DIEGO CLEVELAND (+7.5) over NY Giants Last Week: 6 - 7 - 1 Season: 32 - 39 - 2

NLCS Preview

The Dodgers-Phillies series will not receive a positional breakdown but I still want to share my thoughts on the series that will produce the Red Sox opponent in the World Series. The Dodgers have a lot of momentum after beating up on the Cubs in the NLDS. Manny Ramirez is in a trance at the plate that any true Red Sox will tell you is so unbvelieveable, you never want to miss one of his at-bats. The Phillies are no slouches either. In the NLCS for the first time since 1993, the Phillies have a great lineup, featuring Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Pat Burrell, and a great pitching staff, which is headlined by Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. A Red Sox-Dodgers World Series would be the ultimate in drama and media attention -- Was that Nomar and NESN's own Lou Merloni at the Foxy Lady last night? Gayla and Laura will have multiples the entire Series -- but I don't see it happening. Phillies in 5.

Red Sox-Rays Preview

Tomorrow night in Tampa's Tropicana Field, the Red Sox will meet the Rays in Game 1 of the 2008 ALCS. It is the fourth trip in six years to the League Championship Series for the Sox while the Rays, who finished in last place in the A.L. East in 2007, are there for the first time in the franchise's eleven year history. There are many interesting storylines in this series. The David v. Goliath angle. The bad blood and on-field battles between the teams for the last eleven years. The Rays trying to make the World Series a year after posting the worst record in baseball. The Red Sox going for the third A.L. championship in five years. To see who has the advantage on the field, here is a complete breakdown of both teams. CATCHER Jason Varitek v. Dioner Navarro 'Tek is no longer a regular contributor with the bat but his job of handling the Red Sox pitching staff is vital to the success of the team. Ask Jon Lester what has made him an elite starting pitcher this season and he will reference Varitek. Navarro is a very good defensive catcher and is a solid hitter. His appearance in the 2008 All-Star Game was no fluke, this kid can play. Advantage: Rays FIRST BASE Mark Kotsay v. Carlos Pena With Mike Lowell of the ALCS roster (and probably gone for the year) with a hip injury, Kevin Youkilis is forced to move across the diamond to man third base. Kotsay is a terrific athlete who played well at first against the Angels but I worry about his lack of experience at this position. Pena, a Northeastern grad from Haverhill who was property of the Red Sox at the end of the 2006 season, has emerged as a force at the plate over the last two years. Pena is also a very good first baseman defensively. Advantage: Rays SECOND BASE Dustin Pedroia v. Akinori Iwamura Pedoria might have been the 2008 A.L. MVP but his 1-for-15 effort against the Angels can not be replicated if the Red Sox are to win this series. I doubt Pedroia's struggles at the plate will continue. Iwamura has transitioned to second base smoothly after manning third base as a rookie a year ago. I fear that he could be a difference maker for the Rays in this series. Advantage: Red Sox THIRD BASE Kevin Youkilis v. Evan Longoria The value of Youkilis grows each time this team takes the field. Imagine if the Red Sox had traded him to Oakland after the 2002 season for general manager Billy Beane? Scary. His ability to play first and third makes life very easy for Terry Francona. Youk is the natural evolution of the Dirt Dog, a more talented decendant of Brian Daubach and Trot Nixon. Longoria is going to be a problem for the American League for a very long time. His rookie season saw him carry the Tampa offense, play a terrific third base, make the All-Star team, capture the A.L. East championship and (most likely) win the Rookie of the Year award. Still, he's a rookie and Youk is a two-time World Champion. Advantage: Red Sox (slightly) SHORT STOP Jed Lowrie v. Jason Bartlett Lowrie played an important role in the Red Sox victory over the Angels, driving in the winning run in the clinching Game 4. He plays much more composed than a rookie short stop in Boston is supposed to play. Bartlett was a great addition to the Rays, coming to Tampa from Minnesota along with Matt Garza in exchange for Delmon Young. He is better than Lowrie in the field and, like Iwamura, he potentially could be a surprise hero at the plate. Advantage: Even LEFT FIELD Jason Bay v. Carl Crawford Since coming to Boston, Bay has answered all of his critics. His two home runs and game winning run against the Angels in Game 4 proved he is capable of succeeding in the postseason. Crawford is coming off of a pretty serious wrist injury so his timing will be off at the plate. With his speed, the Red Sox must keep him off of the bases. Advantage: Red Sox CENTER FIELD Jacoby Ellsbury v. B.J. Upton Ellsbury has overcome a rough July and August to explode late in the season, similar to his performance coming out of the minor leagues in 2007 when he stepped into the center field position and helped the Sox win the World Series. Upton might have more potential than any player in the game but he is too inconsistent. If hot, watch out. I get the feeling the pressure will get to him against the Red Sox. Advantage: Red Sox RIGHT FIELD J.D. Drew v. Gabe Gross After missing over a month with a back injury, Drew bounced back with a very good series at the plate and in the field against the Angels. If he is healthy, expect more of the same against the Rays. Drew may not be the most reliable player for 162 games (and $70 million) but he got it done in the postseason last year and is off to a good start in the '08 playoffs. Gross is a decent player, who will start in right for Game 1. Expect to see the "Woonsocket Rocket" Rocco Baldelli in right field as well during the series. Advantage: Red Sox DH David Ortiz v. Cliff Floyd I don't know if it is the knee, the wrist, or just an off year but Ortiz is not the feared hitter he once was. The Angels pitched to him in almost every critical situation, a telling sign that opponents don't fear the 2008 Big Papi like they did from 2003 - 2007. Still, it is October and until he proves otherwise, you have to expect Ortiz to bust out at some point. It seems like a long time ago that Mike Port traded for Floyd at the trade deadline. 2002, the time before history was rewritten. Age and injury have caught up to Floyd, who lacks the power he did just a few years ago. Advantage: Red Sox STARTING PITCHING Daisuke Matsuzaka/Josh Beckett/Jon Lester/Tim Wakefield v. James Shields/Scott Kazmir/Matt Garza/Andy Sonnanstine I love the way Francona arrainged his rotation. Matsuzaka is better away from Fenway and will now pitch on six days rest, which he thrived on in his days in Japan. Beckett will be on normal rest after he struggled in Game 3 of the ALDS, when he was was coming off of nearly two weeks of rest. Lester is the MVP of the playoffs so far and not just for the Red Sox, he has been the most valuable player of any team through the Division Series. Wakefield is a veteran who should benefit from a (hopely) frustrated Rays lineup following Lester. The Red Sox rotation gets most of the publicity in this series but the Rays starters were the main reason that Tampa Bay crawled out of the cellar and won 97 games in 2008. Shields and Kazmir suffered on some bad Tampa teams and have led the way all year. Garza can not be underestimated with his 96 m.p.h heater and Sonnanstine beat Beckett twice in head-to-head matchups in September with the A.L. East title still up for grabs. Advantage: Red Sox (slightly) BULLPEN Jonathan Papelbon/Justin Masterson/Hideki Okajima/Manny Delcarmen/Javier Lopez/Paul Byrd/Mike Timlin v. Grant Balfour/J.P. Howell/Dan Wheeler/Trever Miller/Chad Bradford/David Price/Edwin Jackson The edge goes to the Red Sox, based strictly on Papelbon. Papelbon may have been slightly eratic but he is Rivera-esque in October. With Troy Percival likely to be off the ALCS roster, the roles in the Rays bullpen are changed. Balfour has done well filling in for Percival but the Rays are still a man down. I am interested to see Price, who will be a starter next season. Advantage: Red Sox BENCH Kevin Cash/David Ross/Sean Casey/Alex Cora/Coco Crisp v. Michael Hernandez/Willy Aybar/Ben Zobrist/Rocco Baldelli/Fernando Perez The Red Sox elected to go with three catchers again in the ALDS, giving Francona the ability to hit for Varitek in late game situations. Casey did not leave the bench against the Angels but will probably see time now that Lowell is out for the series. Cora gives the Red Sox the flexibility to move Lowrie to third base and Youk back over to first base if Francona wants to shake things up. Coco is a great defensive outfielder and can steal a base. Hernandez was listed on the official Rays website as the backup catcher for this series but he only made it into five games this year. Aybar was a Red Sox killer in 2008. Zobrist provides middle infield depth. Baldelli was one a rising star befor injuries robbed him of some of his ability. Perez is a fine defensive outfielder who is the equal of Ellsbury in terms of speed. Advantage: Red Sox MANAGER I love what Joe Maddon has done in his short time in Tampa. Making a perpetual loser believe that winning is not only possible, but is also expected is no easy task. He should deservedly win the A.L. Manager of the Year award. However, he is no Terry Francona. Tito has beaten the likes of Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, and Tony La Russa in October. Maddon should be no different. Francona can make reservations for Cooperstown if he wins a third World Series. Advantage: Red Sox Well, I guess 97 wins doesn't mean so much when things are broken down by position. The Red Sox grab a 10-2-1 advantage over the Rays. Even with my hometwon slant, the Red Sox hold an advantage in this series at the plate, in the field, on the mound, and in the dugout. Games are not won on paper but the Red Sox are finally (relatively) healthy and are ready to defend their 2007 A.L. championship. The outcome ... Red Sox in 6.

A.L.C.S. Note

The Red Sox have announced that Daisuke Matsuzaka will start Game 1 of the A.L.C.S. in Tampa Bay against the Rays on Friday. He will be followed by Josh Beckett in Game 2 and Jon Lester in Game 3, when the series moves back to Boston. Many people expected the Red Sox to give the ball in Game 1 to Beckett and to Lester in Game 2 with Matsuzaka going in Game 3. The reasoning behind pitching Matsuzaka in Game 1 is that it will keep him from waiting to long between starts (he started Game 2 of the A.L.D.S. in Anaheim which gives him six days of rest between starts). This also gives Lester, who started Games 1 and 4 of the A.L.D.S., an extra few days off to rest. Lester was also a dramatically better pitcher in Fenway Park than he was on the road in 2008. A full A.L.C.S. preview, plus a look at the N.L.C.S., will be posted tomorrow.

Red Sox Back in the A.L.C.S.

The official A.L.C.S. preview will be out by Thursday (as if you could last that long). For today, TheBostonInsider is celebrating the Red Sox being back in the A.L.C.S. for the fourth time in six years.

Remember when the Red Sox were the suffering losers, the team that could never get it done when it mattered? As a child I often felt that following the Red Sox was like being swallowed by the Sarlacc in Return of the Jedi. Yes, following my favorite baseball team was similar to being digested over the course of 1,000 years in the desert of Tatooine.

Times have certainly changed. The Red Sox received next to nothing from Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz at the plate and Josh Beckett struggled in his one start but they still found a way to win. Jason Bay hit homeruns, Jacoby Ellsbury drove in runs, Jason Varitek showed all the doubters why he is so important to the success of this franchise, and Jon Lester emerged as an October hero, a lefthanded Curt Schilling.

Last night, when things looked bad, really bad, the Red Sox got the job done. Manny Delcarmen inherited a runner on third base with just one out in a 2-2 game and got the team out of a serious jam (with a big assist to 'Tek). Jed Lowrie, the Stanford grad who started the season in Double-A Portland, came through with the game winning RBI. Stuff like this never happened in the past. Now, we kind of expect it.

On a side note, doesn't Lowrie look an awful lot like the guy who purchased the Drunken Clam?

Angels Living In Hell

It's time to prepare for a bunch of "David v. Goliath" stories and the Tampa Bay Rays because the Red Sox are on the verge of sweeping the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles in the A.L.D.S. for the second straight year and third time since 2004.

Anyone still think Mike Scioscia is a better manager than Terry Francona? Didn't think so.

Football Picks

I have tried to avoid politics my entire life but with America tied down in two foreign wars, a gallon of regular gas costing me $4.00, home foreclosures are at an all-time high, and the economy is beginning to look like Al Davis' skin, I have really followed the 2008 presidential election. Last night's hyped up vice-presidential debate was interesting. I thought Joe Biden and Sarah Palin did well. I am a little sick and tired of Palin's "hockey mom" act, I don't think I want a "hockey mom" or "Joe 6-Pack" dealing with foreign enemies. Biden was also too quick to promote himself, instead of promoting Barack Obama. Still, neither candidate did anything to hurt the chances of their running mate. Now, you may be asking yourself why I am talking politics in a space devoted to picking football games. I don't blame you. However, if you picked football games as poorly as I do, you would try to make people think about something else too. All picks are against the spread and home team is in capitals. NCAA WEST VIRGINIA (-13.5) over Rutgers MIAMI (-2.5) over Florida State Texas Tech (-7.5) over KANSAS STATE Arizona State (+9.5) over CALIFORNIA BAYLOR (+26.5) over Oklahoma Last Week: 2 - 3 Season: 6 - 13 - 1 NFL HOUSTON (+3) over Indianapolis Tennessee (-3) over BALTIMORE San Diego (-6.5) over MIAMI CAROLINA (-9.5) over Kansas City Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT GREEN BAY (-5) over Atlanta NY GIANTS (-7) over Seattle Tampa Bay (+3) over DENVER Patriots (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO Buffalo (+1) over ARIZONA DALLAS (-17) over Cincinnati JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Pittsburgh NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Minnesota Last Week: 4 - 9 Season: 26 - 32 - 1

Random Thoughts (October 3, 2008)

I know that I am a day late, but here are my quick-hit thoughts from Game 1 of the Red Sox - Angels series:

• I was more than a little worried when Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkilis failed to drive in Jacoby Ellsbury in the first inning after the center fielder led off with a double.
• That was a very nice Manny Ramirez impersonation by Jason Bay. The sixth inning homerun was all the Red Sox offense would need.
• Justin Masterson, who I expect great things from this October (and in the future), was bailed out by Ellsbury and Vlad Guerrero in the eighth. Hey, you have to have some kind of luck to win a World Series.
• Jason Varitek is no longer a threat at the plate but his perfectly placed sacrifice bunt in the ninth led to a two-run inning for the Sox and gave closer Jonathan Papelbon a comfortable three-run lead when he came on to close out the victory.
• Jon Lester ... WOW!

It looks like it will be a looooooong winter on the North Side of Chicago...

Milwaukee, I hoped you enjoyed CC Sabathia while it lasted...

Evan Longoria doesn't look like he will be rattled too much by the playoffs...

Randy Moss has not been the All-Pro he was a year ago and the injury to Tom Brady is obviously the main reason for this. I expect that to change, beginning with the 49ers on Sunday...

Enjoy Paul Connor tonight...

Division Series Preview

On Monday, I previewed the Red Sox-Angels series. Today, I will look at the other three series. White Sox - Rays I have watched Tampa Bay all year long. I knew they were good but I always believed that the Red Sox would pass them in the A.L. East. I was wrong. Forgetting my past mistakes, I once again will doubt Joe Maddon's club. The White Sox have too much momentum going into this series. They needed three wins in a row, against three different opponents, and did the job on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Last night's 1-0 victory over the Twins, Chicago's first 1-0 win of the year, gave them the A.L. Central championship and a ton of momentum going into Tropicana Field tomorrow afternoon. To be honest, if the Red Sox fail to repeat as World Champs, I would not be too upset if the White Sox (or the Cubs) win the World Series. The idea of seeing Ken Griffey Jr. celebrate a championship would make up for his lost years in Cincinnati. White Sox in 4. Dodgers - Cubs The Cubs starting pitching carried them to a second consecutive N.L. Central title but with their 1-2 combination of Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden showing some wear and tear, there is reason to be concerned on the North Side. The Dodgers may have only won 84 regular season games but they have been a totally different team with Manny Ramirez in the lineup. He has transformed them into a team that has World Series aspirations. For now, I will go with the Cubs but if either Zambrano or Harden is not up to speed, I reserve the right to change my mind. Cubs in 5. Brewers - Phillies I love that the Brewers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 1982 but they do not have the pitching to make it a long stay. Their bullpen has been questionable all year and with Ben Sheets out for at least this series, the starting pitching just isn't strong enough. The Phillies will take this series, unless CC Sabathia pitches every game. Phillies in 4.