Red Sox-Rays Preview

Tomorrow night in Tampa's Tropicana Field, the Red Sox will meet the Rays in Game 1 of the 2008 ALCS. It is the fourth trip in six years to the League Championship Series for the Sox while the Rays, who finished in last place in the A.L. East in 2007, are there for the first time in the franchise's eleven year history. There are many interesting storylines in this series. The David v. Goliath angle. The bad blood and on-field battles between the teams for the last eleven years. The Rays trying to make the World Series a year after posting the worst record in baseball. The Red Sox going for the third A.L. championship in five years. To see who has the advantage on the field, here is a complete breakdown of both teams. CATCHER Jason Varitek v. Dioner Navarro 'Tek is no longer a regular contributor with the bat but his job of handling the Red Sox pitching staff is vital to the success of the team. Ask Jon Lester what has made him an elite starting pitcher this season and he will reference Varitek. Navarro is a very good defensive catcher and is a solid hitter. His appearance in the 2008 All-Star Game was no fluke, this kid can play. Advantage: Rays FIRST BASE Mark Kotsay v. Carlos Pena With Mike Lowell of the ALCS roster (and probably gone for the year) with a hip injury, Kevin Youkilis is forced to move across the diamond to man third base. Kotsay is a terrific athlete who played well at first against the Angels but I worry about his lack of experience at this position. Pena, a Northeastern grad from Haverhill who was property of the Red Sox at the end of the 2006 season, has emerged as a force at the plate over the last two years. Pena is also a very good first baseman defensively. Advantage: Rays SECOND BASE Dustin Pedroia v. Akinori Iwamura Pedoria might have been the 2008 A.L. MVP but his 1-for-15 effort against the Angels can not be replicated if the Red Sox are to win this series. I doubt Pedroia's struggles at the plate will continue. Iwamura has transitioned to second base smoothly after manning third base as a rookie a year ago. I fear that he could be a difference maker for the Rays in this series. Advantage: Red Sox THIRD BASE Kevin Youkilis v. Evan Longoria The value of Youkilis grows each time this team takes the field. Imagine if the Red Sox had traded him to Oakland after the 2002 season for general manager Billy Beane? Scary. His ability to play first and third makes life very easy for Terry Francona. Youk is the natural evolution of the Dirt Dog, a more talented decendant of Brian Daubach and Trot Nixon. Longoria is going to be a problem for the American League for a very long time. His rookie season saw him carry the Tampa offense, play a terrific third base, make the All-Star team, capture the A.L. East championship and (most likely) win the Rookie of the Year award. Still, he's a rookie and Youk is a two-time World Champion. Advantage: Red Sox (slightly) SHORT STOP Jed Lowrie v. Jason Bartlett Lowrie played an important role in the Red Sox victory over the Angels, driving in the winning run in the clinching Game 4. He plays much more composed than a rookie short stop in Boston is supposed to play. Bartlett was a great addition to the Rays, coming to Tampa from Minnesota along with Matt Garza in exchange for Delmon Young. He is better than Lowrie in the field and, like Iwamura, he potentially could be a surprise hero at the plate. Advantage: Even LEFT FIELD Jason Bay v. Carl Crawford Since coming to Boston, Bay has answered all of his critics. His two home runs and game winning run against the Angels in Game 4 proved he is capable of succeeding in the postseason. Crawford is coming off of a pretty serious wrist injury so his timing will be off at the plate. With his speed, the Red Sox must keep him off of the bases. Advantage: Red Sox CENTER FIELD Jacoby Ellsbury v. B.J. Upton Ellsbury has overcome a rough July and August to explode late in the season, similar to his performance coming out of the minor leagues in 2007 when he stepped into the center field position and helped the Sox win the World Series. Upton might have more potential than any player in the game but he is too inconsistent. If hot, watch out. I get the feeling the pressure will get to him against the Red Sox. Advantage: Red Sox RIGHT FIELD J.D. Drew v. Gabe Gross After missing over a month with a back injury, Drew bounced back with a very good series at the plate and in the field against the Angels. If he is healthy, expect more of the same against the Rays. Drew may not be the most reliable player for 162 games (and $70 million) but he got it done in the postseason last year and is off to a good start in the '08 playoffs. Gross is a decent player, who will start in right for Game 1. Expect to see the "Woonsocket Rocket" Rocco Baldelli in right field as well during the series. Advantage: Red Sox DH David Ortiz v. Cliff Floyd I don't know if it is the knee, the wrist, or just an off year but Ortiz is not the feared hitter he once was. The Angels pitched to him in almost every critical situation, a telling sign that opponents don't fear the 2008 Big Papi like they did from 2003 - 2007. Still, it is October and until he proves otherwise, you have to expect Ortiz to bust out at some point. It seems like a long time ago that Mike Port traded for Floyd at the trade deadline. 2002, the time before history was rewritten. Age and injury have caught up to Floyd, who lacks the power he did just a few years ago. Advantage: Red Sox STARTING PITCHING Daisuke Matsuzaka/Josh Beckett/Jon Lester/Tim Wakefield v. James Shields/Scott Kazmir/Matt Garza/Andy Sonnanstine I love the way Francona arrainged his rotation. Matsuzaka is better away from Fenway and will now pitch on six days rest, which he thrived on in his days in Japan. Beckett will be on normal rest after he struggled in Game 3 of the ALDS, when he was was coming off of nearly two weeks of rest. Lester is the MVP of the playoffs so far and not just for the Red Sox, he has been the most valuable player of any team through the Division Series. Wakefield is a veteran who should benefit from a (hopely) frustrated Rays lineup following Lester. The Red Sox rotation gets most of the publicity in this series but the Rays starters were the main reason that Tampa Bay crawled out of the cellar and won 97 games in 2008. Shields and Kazmir suffered on some bad Tampa teams and have led the way all year. Garza can not be underestimated with his 96 m.p.h heater and Sonnanstine beat Beckett twice in head-to-head matchups in September with the A.L. East title still up for grabs. Advantage: Red Sox (slightly) BULLPEN Jonathan Papelbon/Justin Masterson/Hideki Okajima/Manny Delcarmen/Javier Lopez/Paul Byrd/Mike Timlin v. Grant Balfour/J.P. Howell/Dan Wheeler/Trever Miller/Chad Bradford/David Price/Edwin Jackson The edge goes to the Red Sox, based strictly on Papelbon. Papelbon may have been slightly eratic but he is Rivera-esque in October. With Troy Percival likely to be off the ALCS roster, the roles in the Rays bullpen are changed. Balfour has done well filling in for Percival but the Rays are still a man down. I am interested to see Price, who will be a starter next season. Advantage: Red Sox BENCH Kevin Cash/David Ross/Sean Casey/Alex Cora/Coco Crisp v. Michael Hernandez/Willy Aybar/Ben Zobrist/Rocco Baldelli/Fernando Perez The Red Sox elected to go with three catchers again in the ALDS, giving Francona the ability to hit for Varitek in late game situations. Casey did not leave the bench against the Angels but will probably see time now that Lowell is out for the series. Cora gives the Red Sox the flexibility to move Lowrie to third base and Youk back over to first base if Francona wants to shake things up. Coco is a great defensive outfielder and can steal a base. Hernandez was listed on the official Rays website as the backup catcher for this series but he only made it into five games this year. Aybar was a Red Sox killer in 2008. Zobrist provides middle infield depth. Baldelli was one a rising star befor injuries robbed him of some of his ability. Perez is a fine defensive outfielder who is the equal of Ellsbury in terms of speed. Advantage: Red Sox MANAGER I love what Joe Maddon has done in his short time in Tampa. Making a perpetual loser believe that winning is not only possible, but is also expected is no easy task. He should deservedly win the A.L. Manager of the Year award. However, he is no Terry Francona. Tito has beaten the likes of Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, and Tony La Russa in October. Maddon should be no different. Francona can make reservations for Cooperstown if he wins a third World Series. Advantage: Red Sox Well, I guess 97 wins doesn't mean so much when things are broken down by position. The Red Sox grab a 10-2-1 advantage over the Rays. Even with my hometwon slant, the Red Sox hold an advantage in this series at the plate, in the field, on the mound, and in the dugout. Games are not won on paper but the Red Sox are finally (relatively) healthy and are ready to defend their 2007 A.L. championship. The outcome ... Red Sox in 6.