Random Thoughts (July 7, 2008)

When we last saw the Red Sox in Boston, they led the Rays in the AL East and were on pace to enter the All-Star break as the best team in baseball. That was before a loooooooong ten game road trip. The Sox now find themselves five games behind Tampa Bay in the East, falling fast. The injuries are finally catching up to this team. David Ortiz' absence in the lineup is killing the offense. Josh Beckett is finally looking like he is on track to regain his form after turning in an average first half that started with a trip to the disabled list. I'm still not convinced that Daisuke Matsuzaka's shoulder is at full health, although maybe it is time to accept that Dice-BB is no more than an erratic, five inning pitcher. Another problem for the Red Sox has been the disappearance of Manny Ramirez. Even when an MVP candidate like Big Papi goes down, the Boston lineup has enough depth to succeed as long as Manny is being, well, Manny. That has not been the case as the 2008 Rays morph into the 1991 Braves. After a great start, Manny has looked like the 1989 version of Jim Rice. In 306 a-bats, Ramirez has posted a .278 BA, 16 HR, 53 RBI and an OPS of .870. Coming off a .296/20/88/.881 in 2007, Manny is starting to see the end of his dominance at a time when the Sox need him most. With Manny being Jim and Papi taking hacks off a tee, the Red Sox do not have enough bite in their lineup. Mike Lowell, JD Drew, and Kevin Youkilis are all solid run producers but they are not Hall of Fame caliber run producers and to survive in the AL East, you need Ramirez and Ortiz to produce runs. The sad thing about this is there is probably no solution. The Sox can not trade Manny without his consent (he has 10/5 rights) and Papi can't come back until he is healthy. The Sox need to hope that Beckett turns on the jets in the second half and that Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield and Justin Masterson carry this team into August. If the 2008 Red Sox are going to repeat as world champions, it will be on the strength of their starting pitching... Oh, and while you're at it Theo, could you find a few arms for the struggling bullpen? Hideki Okajima looks like he spent a week in Vegas every time he trots out from the 'pen, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen still struggle with being consistent, Javier Lopez is not the answer in the eighth inning, David Aardsma isn't the answer either, and Mike Timlin is on the brink of retirement. And that Papelbon guy sure looks different. The fastball is still high and hard, the splitter is still pretty nasty but he has not been the lights out closer we need him to be. Paps hasn't had a Ramirez-like drop in production but with the 'pen being so inconsistent, the Sox need No. 58 to be the man... Julio Lugo. Jason Varitek. That's right, I'm still complaining. Lugo is horrible, another example of the Red Sox front office falling in love with a player, overpaying that player and then watching as that player fails to live up to expectations. He is Edgar Renteria 2.0. The question facing the Red Sox is how much they are willing to pay to get out from the $20+ million they owe Lugo through 2010. The man plays no defense -- he is so bad that the majority of Red Sox Nation is convinced that the mediocre Alex Cora is the answer at shortstop -- and looks brittle at the plate. It is time for John Henry to write another check to clear his organization of Lugo and for Theo to summon Jed Lowrie from Pawtucket. Lowrie is not Derek Jeter or Michael Young but I think I speak for most Red Sox fans when I say I would rather watch Lowrie, earning a prorated $300,000, than Lugo and his $9 million. As for the Captain, it might be time for all of us who think the world of No. 33 to get ready to say goodbye. Varitek is completely lost at the plate, posting .218/7/27/.658 numbers through last night. The All-Star catcher (a topic for the next random paragraph) is showing his wear and tear at age 36 in a contract year. Even the evil Scott Boras will have to stumble and mumble just a little bit over the negotiating table if he tries to get big money over multiple years for 'Tek... The All-Star Game is a week from tomorrow and it should be a pretty cool event considering it is the last one to be played at the old Yankee Stadium. A tradition as old as the Midsummer Classic is the annual complaints registered over who made the team and who will be traveling to the Caribbean for three days. Terry Francona made some very curious choices in choosing his roster. First of all, as much as I love Jason Varitek, he has no business being on the roster. I admire 'Tek for his leadership and play calling duties but his offensive woes remind me of a guy who brings a knife to a gun fight. Francona's loyalty to his captain is admirable but to show that loyalty in the form of an All-Star pick is ridiculous. AJ Pierzynski should have received the call. Francona's next mistake was in choosing one of his pitchers in place of a more deserving pitcher who also calls Fenway Park his home. Jonathan Papelbon has been very good this year (3-3, 3.29 ERA, 25-for-29 in saves) but he should have been bumped in favor of Jon Lester (7-3, 3.21, no-hitter against the Royals, complete game shutout at Yankee Stadium). There are other questionables -- Manny Ramirez (who was voted on the team) should be at home while Jermaine Dye should already be there (he is a candidate for the fan vote) -- but I'll end my argument at that... Is the Celtics interest in free agent Corey Maggette a bluff to James Posey (you better take our offer, or else!) or is it a part of a long term plan of Danny Ainge to transform the world champions into a long term contender? The legs of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen aren't getting any younger and I'm sure Ainge looks at the Miami Heat as an example of what can happen when an old team wins a title and fails to replenish their roster with young legs. With a tip of the hat to the guys at Celtics Blog, I stole this idea. What if Maggette was a part of a sign-and-trade, along with center Chris Kaman, in return for Ray Allen (who was rumored not to be enamored with Pierce or Garnett in the locker room) and Leon Powe (the Clippers love cheap talent)? The C's would get younger, they would replace PJ Brown with Kaman (who also offers insurance for Kendrick Perkins' bum shoulders) and could save enough money to keep Posey at dollars that make sense for both parties. That would give Boston a 2008-09 roster that looks like this: C: Perkins/Kaman PF: Garnett/Glen Davis/Brian Scalabrine SF: Pierce/Posey/Bill Walker SG: Maggette/Posey/JR Giddens PG: Rajon Rondo/Gabe Pruitt/veteran free agent (Eddie House) As much as a long shot as this probably is, that is a team that I would really enjoy watching. Maggette is not the shooter that Allen is but he is younger and more athletic, something that the Celtics need to become. Posey would still be there as the sixth man on the wings as both Walker and Giddens learn the ropes. Kaman is capable of scoring, rebounding and blocking shots and would form a great tandem with Perk. The depth up front and on the wings would allow Pierce and Garnett to cut their minutes from October through April, preparing them for a few more long runs in May and June. It makes sense... The Patriots open for business on July 24. Revenge... Enjoy the Twins this week...