Thursday, July 17, 2008
MLB First Half Review
The first half of the MLB season was full of surprises. It has been the year of the unexpected.
The Rays, no longer Devils, are a rising superpower. The Cubs look like they are ready to end the suffering of the North Side, a century after their last World Series title. Josh Hamilton is the best player in baseball, just a few years after it looked like his career would be lost to drug addiction. The Yankees are mediocre. The Marlins are back, for a third time in just over a decade. A new group of stars -- Evan Longoria and Edinson Volquez among them -- have exploded onto the baseball landscape. The Cardinals are better than we thought while the Indians have been major disappointments.
Those stories, and many more, have dominated the hardball headlines in the first half. With the second half opening tonight, here are my five annual predictions for the stretch run along with updated predictions for division standings, playoff projections and some season ending awards.
(For those who missed my original predictions, click here.)
Five Fearless Predictions
Prediction #1: The Tampa Bay Rays will add phenom David Price to their rotation and trade for Pittsburgh outfielder Xavier Nady to solidify their team on their way to winning the A.L. Wild Card.
The Rays have been the best story of the first half and will continue to impress in July, August and September. A deep farm system will give general manager Andrew Friedman the ability to make a move to shore up his lineup and Price, the first pick in the 2007 draft, is ready to contribute at the major league level now.
Prediction #2: The New York Yankees bats will keep them in the race until September but their pitching will keep them from making the playoffs for the first time since 1995.
Starters Mike Mussina and Joba Chamberlain have been good and Mariano Rivera is still at the top of his game but the depth of the Yankee pitching staff is so weak that they will be watching come October.
Prediction #3: The L.A. Dodgers will finally trade some of their top prospects to add a pitcher (A.J. Burnett?) and a bat or two (Jason Bay, Jack Wilson?) to take the weak N.L. West.
The Dodgers are stuck in limbo between competing and rebuilding. With the West stuck in neutral at the break -- Arizona leads the division with a 47-48 record -- the Dodgers will take advantage and make the playoffs.
Prediction #4: The Philadelphia Phillies will outlast the New York Mets in the N.L. East behind sluggers Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.
The Phillies and the Mets both need pitching help but the awesome lineup in Philly will push them to another division title.
Prediction #5: With all the media in Wisconsin focused on Brett Favre and the Packers, the Milwaukee Brewers will win the N.L. Wild Card.
The Brewers should be applauded for putting all their chips in the middle of the table and going for the World Series in 2008. C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets give the Brew Crew a dominating 1-2 punch in their rotation and they have a deep lineup. The Brewers need some bullpen help to win the N.L. but they have enough now to at least make the playoffs.
Division Winners/Playoff Predictions
A.L. East: Boston Red Sox
A.L. Central: Chicago White Sox
A.L. West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
A.L. Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
N.L. East: Philadelphia Phillies
N.L. Central: Chicago Cubs
N.L. West: Los Angeles Dodgers
N.L. Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers
A.L.D.S.: Red Sox over White Sox, Angels over Rays
N.L.D.S.: Brewers over Phillies, Cubs over Dodgers
A.L.C.S.: Red Sox over Angels
N.L.C.S.: Cubs over Phillies
World Series: Cubs over Red Sox
Award Winners
A.L. MVP: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
N.L. MVP: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
A.L. Cy Young: Francisco Rodriguez, L.A. Angels of Anaheim
N.L. Cy Young: Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs
A.L. Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays
N.L. Manager of the Year: Tony La Russa, St. Louis Cardinals
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