NBA 6-Pack

Between the start of the Red Sox season and the madness of the NCAA Tournament, it's almost easy to forget that the NBA playoffs start at the end of April. The playoffs promise to be fantastic. There are nine teams in the Western Conference that should win over 50 games but only eight will be in the playoffs. In the East, the Celtics and Pistons are set to resume their grudge match from the late 1980s and the Cavaliers and Magic loom as threats simply because LeBron James wear a Cleveland uniform and Dwight Howard plays in Orlando.

To get us amped up for the postseason, Ian Thomsen of Sports Illustrated has taken time from his busy schedule -- Ian is on his way to Portland, Oregon to take in the Nike Hoop Summit -- to answer a few of my NBA questions. Yes, the NBA 6-Pack has returned!

TBI: The Celtics have 60 wins (and counting). They have Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. They have a solid bench that provides Doc Rivers with plenty of options. Is that going to be enough to win the Larry O'Brien trophy or does this team need to make a deep run into the playoffs this year and then come back in 2008-09 to win their championship?

IT: For most of the year I figured it would be the latter, because that's how it almost always goes in the NBA: You rarely see a team win the championship immediately after a major overhaul. But in the last weeks it's become clear that the Celtics should be the favorite to reach the NBA Finals. The Pistons look like they're coasting into the playoffs again, not unlike the previous two years when they had trouble raising their intensity for the playoffs. The Celtics on the other hand are driving into the postseason. Instead of showing physical or emotional fatigue they're playing at a high level while Rondo and Perkins continue to improve, and the pickups of Cassell and PJ Brown have filled out the bench. Unless the Spurs reach the Finals, the Celtics would probably be facing a team that itself underwent major changes (Lakers or Suns) more recently than the Celtics, in which case the Celtics would actually be the more experienced team in terms of playing together for the longer span of time.

Instead of playing for next season, they need to look at this as a magic season when everything has gone the right way for them and they need to cash in now. Which is exactly how they're looking at it.

TBI: Now that Donnie Walsh is with the New York Knicks, what is going to happen to Isiah Thomas?

IT: I just can't see that he'll be back. He shouldn't want to come back as long as he's receiving a good buyout, and the Knicks need to start fresh. The honeymoon will be shortened if the papers are continuing to write about Isiah's role in the front office. He can leave the Knicks with confidence that Walsh won't trash him to the press. I think he'll move into college coaching somewhere.

TBI: What potential 50-win team in the West is going to be left out of the playoffs and why?

IT: Today it looks like Golden State will be in the lottery after the Warriors were clobbered by the Mavericks last night. Each of the three teams at risk has flaws -- the Mavericks haven't been able to integrate Jason Kidd, the talented Nuggets are inherently dysfunctional and the streaky Warriors don't defend -- and it will probably come down to the final days. There's no predicting any of it; all three teams would be fighting for homecourt advantage if they were in the East.

TBI: If the Rockets do not advance past the first round, will there be a major shakeup in Houston or will the Rockets take into account that Yao missed the playoffs and that this was the first year in Rick Adelman's system?

IT: They'll need to balance the fact that Tracy McGrady has never won a playoff series with the fact that Yao Ming's absence ruined their chances of going far. If they could ever get McGrady and Yao on the court together for a full season then they would have real hope of winning the conference. The question is whether those two players can ever realize full health. Everything else -- Adelman's coaching, the improvement of Rafer Alston, the arrival of Luis Scola -- is something on which they can build, but none of it means anything unless McGrady and Yao are available every night.

TBI: Who are your top five MVP candidates and who do you think will win the award?

IT: I still don't know who to pick. There are four guys who are all deserving -- Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and LeBron James. People will complain and have different personal ideas of what the MVP should mean, but if any one of them wins it then no one can reasonably say that he wasn't deserving. I'm guessing that Kobe will win it, the tiebreaker being that he's the best player in the league (which is different from being MVP) and that he's never so much as contended for the MVP before now. I'm going to wait until the last minute to decide.

TBI: What teams will make up the NBA's Final Four and who will David Stern hand the hardware to in June?

IT: Boston and Detroit should meet in the East, though Orlando will have a chance at upsetting the Pistons in the second round; the Cavaliers can't be discounted in the second round against Boston either, but the Celtics don't appear vulnerable to a letdown. In the West I'm going to assume that the Spurs are there against who knows which team ... the Lakers, Suns, Hornets, Jazz could all be there; even the Nuggets could go that far if they get hot. It's all going to depend on the seedings and matchups and that won't be decided until the last day. For the moment let's say Lakers-Spurs in the conference finals.Then, who knows, let's say the Celtics beat the Spurs in Game 7 in Boston ... usually in the NBA playoffs you have a good feel for which teams are going to be in the Finals but in the West this year there's no telling, so I feel like I'm throwing darts trying to pick the Finals right now.

As always, TheBostonInsider thanks Ian for his time and for his help. Check him out at Sports Illustrated and on SI.com.