2007 Red Sox Preview

Here is my original TheBostonInsider Daily Red Sox preview. For my outlook on the 2007 MLB season, click over to my homepage. Odds and Ends: Theo Epstein is showing a lot of faith in Bill James by investing $70 million over 5 years in J.D. Drew. Drew is an on-base machine but he needs to play in at least 145 games each year to earn that salary ... Curt Schilling looked too old to be the Red Sox ace on Opening Day. As Tony Massarotti pointed out in today's Boston Herald, Josh Beckett must step up and assume the mantle of staff ace ... Other than the versatility of Alex Cora and the power of Wily Mo Pena, the bench is awful. Eric Hinske has a decent bat and plays both the corner infield and outfield positions and Doug Mirabelli survives because of Tim Wakefield but there is no defensive replacement for the outfield or a guy who can steal a base when needed ... I'm glad Papelbon is closing again and I think that allows Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and the rest of the bullpen to settle into their setup roles ... As soon as Jon Lester is ready to go, a spot in the rotation has to open up ... I wonder what the Sox could bring back if they made Craig Hansen available? ... Lineup: The Red Sox lineup is no longer the powerhouse of 2003 and 2004 when AL batting champion Bill Mueller regularly batted eighth and they flirted with scoring 1000 runs. If Drew is healthy, he will flourish hitting behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Expecting Ortiz, Ramirez and Drew to hit isn't my concern. I'm worried about Julio Lugo being a consistent leadoff hitter. I'm worried about Kevin Youkilis hitting into double plays because of his lack of speed. I'm worried that Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell will be automatic outs. I'm worried that Coco Crisp won't rebound from last year's injury plagued performance. I'm worried about Dustin Pedroia's lack of experience. That is too many worries for a $150 million dollar team. The duo of Ortiz and Ramirez, with the healthy addition of Drew, should be enough on most nights to carry the Red Sox but teams with great pitching who can work around the 3-4-5 of the Boston order will silence the other hitters. Pitching Staff: There are questions about the Red Sox pitching -- for example, is Opening Day a true indicator of what to expect from Curt Schilling this summer? -- but I feel more confident in the arms than in the bats. Schilling's stinker aside, the starting rotation of the Sx has the ability to be one of the best in baseball. No. 38 is joined by Josh Beckett (will bounce back in a big way from his mediocre 2006), Daisuke Matsuzaka (he will take the American League by storm) and Tim Wakefield (still gets hitters out). When Papelbon was moved from starter back to closer late in Spring Training, Julian Tavarez was made a starter. Tavarez was solid in that role last September but the job may not be a permanent one. When Lester is ready to return he will most likely get the No. 5 starter job and both righty Devern Hansack and lefty Kason Gabbard are waiting in the wings at Pawtucket. Keep an eye on Class-AA Portland's Clay Buchholz, a potential top of the rotation starter in the near future. Oh, don't discount Roger Clemens returning to Boston either. The Rocket has not even made a public announcement that he will pitch in 2007 but if he does, the Sox will contend for his services along with the Astros and Yankees. As for the bullpen, Papelbon's return to closer makes life a lot less stressful for Tito Francona. Paps is an All-Star and the game is as good as over when he comes in from the 'pen. The Sox will monitor his shoulder and he will not get over used so the setup crew of Mike Timlin (when he returns from an oblique injury), Brendan Donnelly, Hideki Okajima, Joel Pineiro and J.C. Romero all may be called upon to close out Boston wins. Kyle Snyder is the long reliever/spot starter, a role he seems to be well suited for, and until Timlin comes back, lefty Javier Lopez is in the bullpen giving Francona three left handed options for the time being. Tavarez will be an option out of the bullpen as well if/when he is replaced in the rotation. The minor leagues provide the bullpen with some options as well. Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen and Edgar Martinez are at Pawtucket and Bryce Cox is at Portland. Bench: The bench is a weakness for the Sox right now. Alex Cora is a solid middle infielder who can be effective at the plate in small doses. He is a smart player (Francona believes he is a future big league manager) and will help this team win games. Wily Mo Pena is a physical specimen and is one of the strongest men in baseball but he offers little off the bench. In spite of his athleticism, he is not a good defensive outfielder and is not a great base runner. At the plate, he strikes out too much to be an effective pinch hitter. What the Sox need to do is find a trade partner that can play Wily Mo every day. The trade last spring with Cincinnati that cost the Sox All-Star starter Bronson Arroyo isn't looking too good for Epstein. Eric Hinske, the 2002 AL Rookie of the Year with the Blue Jays, has never developed into a consistent threat. He does add a decent left handed bat off the bench and he can play both third base and first base, as well as both right and left field, but he is not a great defender. Doug Mirabelli has a spot on the roster solely based on the fact that he can catch Wakefield's knuckler. To bring him back from San Diego last May (after the Sox traded him for Mark Loretta), the Sox dealt away Josh Bard who went on to post a .338 average with 9 HR and 40 RBI and a .943 OPS with the Padres in 93 games. Mirabelli "produced" a .193 BA, 6 HR, 25 RBI and a .603 OPS in 59 games. George Kottaras, acquired from San Diego for David Wells, is in Pawtucket and hopefully he learns how to catch the knuckler well enough to replace Mirabelli. His 2006 stats in the minor leagues were a .255 BA, 10 HR, 50 RBI, and an OPS of .784. What the bench needs is a good defensive outfielder and a player who can come off the bench and steal a base when necessary. David Murphy at Pawtucket could be the defensive fourth outfielder. Overall: The Red Sox should win at least 90 games in their sleep. They have enough pitching and hitting to contend even without fixing the problems they have right now. I still have faith in Theo (although it is wearing thin) to correct the problems and transform this club into a 95-100 game winner and a World Series champion. I think they will win the AL East for the first time since 1995 and win their second World Series since 2004.