Wednesday, March 14, 2007
NCAA Tournament
I'm a day late (or two) in my NCAA Tournament preview but in my defense, this year's March Madness was harder than those in recent past to predict. In most years, there is at least one or two teams that stand out from the others and although there are no guarantees those teams will win the National Championship (or advance even as far as the Sweet Sixteen), at least the process of filling out the brackets becomes easier when those top teams exist.
The problem with this year's tournament, there are at least nine teams that an argument could be made for them winning the whole thing. Start with defending champion Florida and then go through the rest: North Carolina, UCLA, Georgetown, Ohio State, Kansas, Texas A&M, Memphis, and Texas. All of these teams can make legitimate claims as to why they could be the last team standing in college basketball.
With that many teams near the top, filling out the bracket became harder than ever. And though my bracket and your bracket may be a wreck by Saturday, this promises to be as exciting a tournament as there has been in a long time.
I am going to go through the tournament, region by region, and try and make sense of the whole thing.
MIDWEST REGIONAL:
Florida is the No. 1 seed in this bracket and on paper they have the easiest road to the Final Four of any of the top seeds. The leadership and experience of the five returning starters from last year's championship -- Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer, Lee Humphrey, and Taurean Green -- can't be matched by anyone else in the country. They shouldn't be challenged until the regional final.
Wisconsin, the second seed in the regional, is missing their best big man Brian Butch and finished the season 3-3 after starting the year 26-2. Even with All-American Alando Tucker, the Badgers could be in trouble without the inside presence of Butch.
Other teams to watch are Notre Dame, Butler, and Georgia Tech.
BEST FIRST ROUND GAME: (6) Notre Dame v. (11) Winthrop
SLEEPER: (12) Old Dominion
POSSIBLE EARLY EXIT: (3) Oregon
REGIONAL FINAL: (1) Florida v. (6) Notre Dame
GOING TO ATLANTA: (1) Florida
WEST REGIONAL:
Top seeded Kansas are stuck in a bracket with UCLA. The second seeded Bruins won't have to leave California to reach the Final Four in Atlanta. Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Duke, Kentucky, and Villanova also inhabit the West Regional. This is not going to be easy for the Jayhawks.
The potential second round matchup with the Villanova/Kentucky winner could be the end of the line for Kansas. They also have a potential meeting with a Virginia Tech team that beat North Carolina twice this season and won at Duke.
UCLA will probably have to get by Pittsburgh to make it to the regional final which will be tough for the Bruins because of Pitt's 7-foot center Aaron Gray.
BEST FIRST ROUND GAME: (4) Southern Illinois v. (13) Holy Cross
SLEEPER: (11) Virginia Commonwealth
POSSIBLE EARLY EXIT: (6) Duke
REGIONAL FINAL: (2) UCLA v. (9) Villanova
GOING TO ATLANTA: (2) UCLA
EAST REGIONAL:
If you think the West Regional is tough, take a close look at this region.
Top seeded North Carolina. Georgetown. Texas. Michigan State. Washington State. BC. Texas Tech. Vanderbilt.
The winner of this bracket will be more a survivor than a conquering hero.
UNC, Georgetown, and Texas are all legit championship contenders. There are at least six potential future lottery picks among these three teams (UNC's Brandon Wright and Ty Lawson, Georgetown's Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, and Texas' Kevin Durant and DJ Augustine).
The eyes of college basketball will be fixed on this regional. It promises more excitement than any of the others.
BEST FIRST ROUND GAME: (7) Boston College v. (10) Texas Tech
SLEEPER: (14) Oral Roberts
POSSIBLE EARLY EXIT: (5) Southern California
REGIONAL FINAL: (2) Georgetown v. (4) Texas
GOING TO ATLANTA: (4) Texas
SOUTH REGIONAL:
This is the most confusing regional. No. 1 seed Ohio State looks to be the best bet to make the Final Four but because they rely on so many freshman they could be vulnerable to a tight game. No. 2 seed Memphis looks like they're loaded but playing in the weak Conference USA has not tested John Calipari's Tigers.
Keep an eye on Texas A&M. Acie Law IV, the Aggies point guard and leader, could explode in the tournament.
Louisville is also a team to watch as is Nevada.
BEST FIRST ROUND GAME: (6) Louisville v. (11) Stanford
SLEEPER: (13) Albany
POSSIBLE EARLY EXIT: (5) Tennessee
REGIONAL FINAL: (1) Ohio State v. (3) Texas A&M
GOING TO ATLANTA: (1) Ohio State
FINAL FOUR:
To be honest, I am in five pools and my Final Four for each is slightly different. For my official TheBostonInsider prediction, I have gone with Florida, UCLA, Texas, and Ohio State.
Imagine a Saturday night Final Four matchup of Florida and UCLA in a rematch of last year's championship game and a meeting of Kevin Durant (Texas) and Greg Oden (Ohio State), the two most influential freshmen in college basketball since the Fab Five led Michigan to the championship game in 1992.
I'll take Florida over UCLA and Ohio State over Texas and then Florida to repeat as National Champions.
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