Red Sox Winter Plans

This is not a retreat from my last posting, I still say (as of today) that the Red Sox will be a playoff team. What this post concerns are possible winter moves that Theo Epstein could make regardless of what happens over the next 12 games. First off, the Red Sox have some of their own free agents to deal with. The biggest name on this list is Johnny Damon, the soon to be 32-year-old center fielder. Damon is viewed by some as the MVP of the Red Sox and management has stated that re-signing him is their biggest concern. But that could change if other moves are made. Other Sox free agents include Bill Mueller, Mike Timlin, Kevin Millar, John Olerud and Tony Graffanino. Mueller would be one player that I would keep if I were in Epstein's shoes. He is the consumate professional; Mueller is a gamer and since he came to Boston before the 2003 season, the Red Sox have won 280 regular season games (and counting) and made two trips to the playoffs. If he is willing to return to Boston on a one or two-year deal then he should be re-signed. If not, Kevin Youkilis is your starting third baseman in '06. Timlin, the savior of the 2005 bullpen, poses a problem. He will be 40 by the time 2006 kicks off and over the last three years he has made 223 appearances -- a high number for any pitcher, especially one of Timlin's age. With the type of year he has had in '05, Timlin is in line for a raise but I don't think he will get one in Boston. My guess is that he only returns on a one-year deal for under $3-million. As for Olerud, Millar and Graffanino, I don't think the chances of any of them returning are high. Olerud could retire, Millar has not produced enough on the field to warrant a new deal and Graffanino's eventual replacement, Dustin Pedroia, is on his way from Pawtucket. If Olerud doesn't retire he could be brought back for cheap money as a back-up first baseman and DH. Graffanino could also come back if the Sox don't think that Pedroia is quite ready to take over in 2006. As for Damon, re-signing him depends on two things. One is the money that his agent, the boorish Scott Boras, will demand and the other is what will happen with Manny Ramirez. Ramirez is obviously a player that the Red Sox want to get rid of; not because of his production but because he is owed nearly $60-million for the next three years. One team that would love Ramirez -- no matter how expensive he comes -- is the New York Mets. Mets GM Omar Minaya is trying to build an instant winner and the production that Ramirez brings to the table could just be the thing to put the Mets in the championship hunt. The Red Sox and Mets discussed a deal in July for Ramirez but Mike Cameron a prospect and a third player from another team is not enough to make Epstein move his slugging left fielder. The one player the Mets have that could get Ramirez into the National League (where he can't be a DH) is Carlos Beltran. Beltran, who is owed roughly $98-million for the next seven seasons, has had a rough debut in Queens but his talent is so jaw-dropping that Boston would gladly take him in return for Ramirez. Peter Gammons has already gone on record saying there is a good chance this deal could be consumated over the offseason. If it does happen, Boston can say farewell to Johnny Damon. The Red Sox would have no home for two center fielders making more than $10-million per year. If Beltran does come to Fenway, the Sox will need a new left fielder (to replace Manny) and a new lead-off man (for Damon) but that doesn't mean they need to fill both holes with one player. Potential left fielders include Adam Dunn, Hideki Matsui (if the Yanks overspend on Damon), Jacque Jones and Brian Giles while the lead-off role could be filled by Graffanino or Pedroia or by acquiring a Shannon Stewart from Minnesota or Randy Winn from San Diego (both would also fit into the left field gap). If the Manny trade is not made but Damon still leaves, the Sox would be searching for a center fielder and lead-off man. Florida's Juan Pierre -- in the midst of a horrible season but who is a good ball player -- could be had for cheap dollars with the savings being spent on pitching. As for the pitching staff, the '06 projected starting rotation includes Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Matt Clement, Bronson Arroyo, David Wells and Jonathan Papelbon. Six names (for now) for five slots. Solutions may include moving Arroyo, to either the bullpen or a new team, or eating some of Wells contract and allowing him to walk. Other names to consider are Jon Lester, Abe Alvarez or a potential free agent (A.J. Burnett, Jarrod Washburn). Burnett is rumored to be enamored with pitching in Fenway but his price tag and shaky background could pose a problem. The bullpen is another issue. Letting Timlin go is a possibility but replacing him will be harder than finding a lead-off man. Pitching is at a premium and a good bullpen can win a World Series for an otherwise average team (2002 Angels); I will assume he returns in his set-up role. Closer Keith Foulke could be moved, his miserable '05 season could facilitate a trade. If he is moved, to a team in need of a closer possibly for a fourth outfielder, free agency is not the only way to solve the closer role. 2005 first round draft pick Craig Hansen could close (his major league debut last night was electrifying) and if Hansen isn't ready at the ouset, some free agents who could be short term closers as well as solid set-up men include B.J. Ryan, Trevor Hoffman, Kyle Farnsworth and Ryan Dempster. Manny DelCarmen will also figure into the 2006 bullpen, as could Cla Meredith. That is just a brief look at some possible dealings the Red Sox could make this winter. For now consider this roster for Opening Day 2006: 1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B 2. Edgar Renteria, SS 3. David Ortiz, DH 4. Carlos Beltran, CF 5. Trot Nixon, RF 6. Jason Varitek, C 7. Adam Dunn, LF 8. Bill Mueller, 3B 9. Kevin Youkilis, 1B Bench: Doug Mirabelli, C; Alex Cora, 2B/SS; John Olerud, 1B/DH; David Murphy, OF Starting Rotation: Curt Schilling, Matt Clement, Jonathan Papelbon, Tim Wakefield, Bronson Arroyo Bullpen: Mike Myers, Lenny DiNardo, Jon Lester, Manny DelCarmen, Mike Timlin, Craig Hansen, B.J. Ryan