Patriots-Dolphins Random Thoughts and Football Picks

Much has been said and written of the Patriots offense this season.  Every word typed and uttered has been deserved.

Tom Brady is running the show better than he ever has and his arsenal of weapons must make opposing defensive coordinators loose total control of their bodily functions as they try and figure out a way to keep the Patriots from scoring at will.  Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, a hot candidate on the head coaching market, must laugh when outposts such as Cleveland and Detroit call for his services because no offensive coordinator of sound mind and moral principles would walk away from this machine right now.

Sorry to bury the lead.  This was not intended to be a love letter to Brady and the offense.

Actually, the defense deserves the attention today.

Matt Patricia is the Patriots defensive coordinator who very few people know of, who loves Barstool Sports, and who also should be on the short list of candidates to become a head coach in the near future.

Patricia's unit may be unheralded compared to the offense but it is, quietly, establishing itself as championship worthy.

Last night's game was a prime example of the ability of the defense.  Facing a Dolphins offense that has some talent and had put up 82 points in its previous two games, the Patriots eliminated their running game and shut down their passing attack in the 36-7 rout.

The front seven features some awesome young talent that have championship pedigree already and are starting to assert themselves as All-Pro talent.  There are not many better defenders in the NFL right now than Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, and Jamie Collins and when you add in grizzled veterans like Rob Ninkovich, Alan Branch, Jerod Mayo, and Jabaal Sheard as well as youngsters Malcolm Brown and Dominique Easley, the front seven has the ability and the production to be considered elite.

Even the secondary, which is still a little suspect, is coming together.  Cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan are both playing good football and Devin McCourty continues to be one of the best safeties in the game.

The path to the top seed in the AFC and another Super Bowl title will not be easy but as the defense continues to develop and earns its own accolades separate from the offense, it's looking like another super season for the Patriots.

***

So much for the "revived" Dolphins.

Dan Campbell did pump some life into the Dolphins after they started 1-3 and fired head coach Joe Phillbin.  However, lopsided wins over the hapless Titans and Texans does not make a team ready for prime time.

Campbell's team got a lesson last night in what an actual championship team looks like.  Bill Belichick is not one for macho coaching cliches and maybe Campbell will learn from that as he prepares his team going forward to possibly compete for a playoff spot as a Wild Card.

Tom Brady and the offense moved the ball easily and the Patriots defense tormented Ryan Tannehill all night long as Campbell watched helplessly from the sideline.

If Campbell can get the Dolphins to bounce back from last night's shelling than they could conceivably enter the regular season finale against the Patriots in Miami with 8 or 9 wins and be alive for a postseason berth.

***

On to the Redskins.

***

Picks are against the spread and home team is in CAPS.

NCAA

Clemson (-10) over NC STATE
Notre Dame (-11) over TEMPLE
PENN STATE (-4) over Illinois
KENTUCKY (+8.5) over Tennessee
MEMPHIS (-32.5) over Tulsa

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 13-20-2

NFL

Chiefs (-3.5) over Lions (game played in London, England)
Vikings (+1.5) over BEARS
Buccaneers (+7.5) over FALCONS
Giants (+3) over SAINTS
RAMS (-8) over 49ers
Cardinals (-6) over BROWNS
Bengals (+1.5) over STEELERS
Chargers (+3.5) over RAVENS
Titans (+3.5) over TEXANS
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
COWBOYS (+6.5) over Seahawks
Packers (-2.5) over BRONCOS
PANTHERS (-7) over Colts

Last Week: 5-8
This Week: 0-1
Season: 53-49-3

Patriots-Jets Random Thoughts and Thursday Football Pick

There are so many weeks when, after watching the Patriots, that I remind myself how lucky we all are to be able to watch Tom Brady.

Going in to the Jets game, the offensive line was facing serious injury issues and Dion Lewis, the team's best running back through five games, was out with an injury.  Those are difficult tasks to deal with any week, let alone going against a hated division rival that sports one of the best defenses in the league.

Despite those obstacles and also with the running game being a non-factor (Brady was the team's leading rusher with just 15 yards) and 11 of Brady's passes being dropped, Brady led the Patriots to a 30-23 win by completing 34 of 54 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns.

It is almost easy to take Brady for granted considering that he's made the spectacular look routine on too many Sundays, Mondays, and Thursdays to keep track of since becoming the starter in 2001.

Don't make that mistake.  We are lucky enough to be bearing witness to the greatest quarterback of all time and even though it seems as if this will last forever - and Brady feeds in to that belief - the fact is that it will end sooner rather than later.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

***

Please, do not tell anyone what I'm about to tell you.

I really like the Jets.

Seriously.  Just let me explain.

While I will always hate the Jets franchise and everything that they stand for, this edition of their football team is one that I enjoy watching.

Their defense is physical and aggressive and while Tom Brady found a way to carve them up and score 30 points, very few quarterbacks or offenses will have the ability to do so against the Jets.

Their defensive line is stocked with premium talent.  Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson are Pro Bowl talents and the team drafted Leonard Williams - who looks like a Richard Seymour clone - in the first round.  David Harris is a very good linebacker against the run and both Calvin Pace and Quinton Coples are good pass rushing linebackers.  That front seven alone would translate to a good defense but when the secondary, led by Darrelle Revis, is added in to the equation, this Jets defense becomes elite.

On offense, the Jets are held back by the quarterback position.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the worse signal caller in the NFL but it's hard to believe he can do enough come January to get the Jets to the Super Bowl.  However, with receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as well as running back Chris Ivory, the Jets offense is more than good enough to make them a playoff team.

Finally, Todd Bowles is the complete opposite of Rex Ryan.  Bowles is a defensive minded coach but he avoids the media in a near Belichickian fashion and instead focuses on preparing his team for victory.  While he still has a ways to go to be considered an elite NFL head coach - I was curious why he didn't use any of his three timeouts at the end of the game when the Patriots were driving for their final touchdown - I do believe that he is the type of leader who can make the Jets a relevant threat to the Patriots in the AFC East.

***

On to the Dolphins.

***

As for tonight, the short week of preparation to get ready for another heated division rivalry game - especially against a Dolphins team that has played exceptionally well in the first two weeks under interim coach Dan Campbell - has me leaning towards a Patriots victory but a Miami cover.

Dolphins (+9.5) over PATRIOTS

Last Week: 5-8
Season: 53-48-3

Brad Stevens Rules The Celtics & NBA Preview

The Brad Stevens Era took a big leap from Year One to Year Two, jumping from 25 wins to 40 wins and a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

So, Brad, what's the plan for Year Three?

There are high expectations for the Celtics in the 2015-16 season.  Stevens has established himself as one of the best coaches in the NBA and Danny Ainge has cobbled together a roster, that while lacking a legitimate All-Star, is deep at every position.

Stevens will be tasked with juggling the expectations of Boston while developing a rotation.  A typical NBA rotation has its five starters with three or four bench players playing significant minutes. The Celtics will likely not have such a traditional rotation this winter.

The Celtics have quality players at every position.

They have five traditional post players with David Lee, Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, and Jared Sullinger.  Rookie Jordan Mickey could factor into this group as well.

At small forward the Celtics feature Jae Crowder and Jonas Jerebko, who can both moonlight as post players, as well as Evan Turner, who can also be a ball handling point guard.  Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, although ball handling guards by trade, can handle the duties of a small forward if Stevens goes with a small-ball lineup.

That makes eight traditional forwards.

At guard Stevens can choose from Isaiah Thomas, Smart, Bradley, Turner, R.J. Hunter, and Terry Rozier - as well as Crowder and Jerebko - to play any of the wing positions with Thomas, Smart, Bradley, Turner, and Rozier all serving as potential primary ball handling point guards.

Good luck trying to sort out the minutes.

Stevens has shown himself to be shrewd in devising game plans and rotations so I expect him to craft a rotation based on the opponent.  Some nights he will need to go big and he has the weapons to do so, same as the nights when he'll need a smaller and quicker lineup on the floor.

His biggest challenge will be getting  such a large group of players to buy into playing limited minutes or having their roles dictated by the opponent but communication is also one of his biggest strengths.  Lee, acquired in a trade from the Warriors, said during the preseason that Stevens, "... has a great way of teaching and getting his message across to everybody."

Anticipating the challenge of finding roles for so many talented players, Stevens said in the preseason that, "It takes special players to be willing to be one of 12 as opposed to one of eight."

I expect Stevens to figure it out long enough for Ainge to package a few of his player assets, along with a few of the many first round picks the Celtics possess over the next few years, and land the team an impact player that can get them from a middle-of-the-pack team in the East to a legitimate championship contender.

Stevens coaching abilities and the talent he has at his disposal will be enough for the Celtics to increase their win total again.  I see them challenging for a division title and winning between 45-48 games this season.

For his efforts, Stevens will take home the NBA Coach of the Year trophy.

***

My predictions for the season include a Final Four of the Bulls and Cavaliers in the East and the Thunder and the Spurs in the West with the Spurs ultimately prevailing of the Cavs for the sixth, and final, title of the Tim Duncan era before he retires.  I think we will also see Carmelo Anthony dealt to the Bulls, Kobe Bryant end his NBA career with a shot at the scoring title, and the news that Kevin Durant is putting off free agency by signing a one-year extension with the Thunder that will give that franchise another shot at winning a title before Durant and Russell Westbrook cash in as free agents in the summer of 2017.

As for the individual awards:

MVP - LeBron James, Cavaliers
Rookie of the Year - Jahlil Okafor, 76ers
6th Man of the Year - Isaiah Thomas, Celtics
Defensive Player of the Year - Anthony Davis, Pelicans
Most Improved Player - Otto Porter, Wizards
Coach of the Year - Brad Stevens, Celtics

Football Picks

The 4-1 Jets travel across the border to invade Foxboro and take on the 5-0 Patriots on Sunday and I could not be more excited.

Gone are the bombastic ways of Rex Ryan and in his stead, the Jets are led by Todd Bowles who is Ryan's equal in defense but his opposite in oratory.  The Jets look like a legitimate threat to the Patriots dominance of the AFC East this year, with a loaded defense molded by Bowles that features a familiar face in Darrelle Revis and an offense that features a power running game led by Chris Ivory.

The Patriots will win this game but it is sure to be a battle of two of the best teams in the entire conference.

Now, on to the weekly picks.  All picks are against the spread and home team is in CAPS.

NCAA

Memphis (-10) over TULSA
Clemson (-7) over MIAMI
Utah (+3.5) over USC
Florida State (-6.5) over GEORGIA TECH
LOUISVILLE (-7) over Boston College

Last Week: 2-2-1
Season: 11-17-2


NFL

Jaguars (+4) over Bills (game played in London, England)
Browns (+6) over RAMS
DOLPHINS (-5) over Texans
Jets (+8.5) over PATRIOTS
LIONS (+2.5) over Vikings
Falcons (-5) over TITANS
REDSKINS (-3) over Buccaneers
Saints (+4) over COLTS
Raiders (+4) over CHARGERS
Cowboys (+4) over GIANTS
Eagles (+3) over PANTHERS
CARDINALS (-8.5) over Ravens

CHIEFS v. Steelers currently is "off the board"

Last Week: 10-3-1
This Week: 0-1
Season: 48-41-3

Thursday Football Pick

Just a quick note before giving you a pocketful of free money to start your weekend that the reason I have not posted "Random Thoughts" for the last two Patriots games is because I didn't really watch either game.  During the Cowboys game I was tending bar at The Baseball Tavern and during the Colts game I went to bed at halftime because - old age rant coming ahead - I knew I'd be too tired at my real job as a high school teacher on Monday if I stayed up for the whole game.

As always pick is against the spread and home team is in CAPS.

49ERS (+7.5) over Seahawks

Last Week: 10-3-1
Season: 48-40-3

Football Picks

Another week gone by and another week waiting for Sparty to cover.  I'm sticking with them for now because we all know that as soon as I go against them that they will roll to a big cover.

While I'm sticking with Michigan State despite them being 0-5 against the spread, I'll be going against the Patriots this week despite them being 3-0-1 against the spread.  There's too much love for the Patriots this week and when 90% of the country is going one way, I'll go the other.

Another reason that I like the Colts this week is that after getting crushed by New England the last four times they have played - including the 45-7 defeat in last year's AFC Championship Game - I believe they'll be motivated to not get blown out, at home, by Belichick's team once again.  The Colts will keep it close for four quarters but in the end the Patriots will win the game.  I'll go with a 38-31 win for Belichick but a cover for the Colts.

As always, all picks are against the spread and the home team is in CAPS.

NCAA

Houston (-20) over TULANE
NORTHWESTERN (+1.5) over Iowa
Michigan State (+7.5) over MICHIGAN
LSU (-7) over Florida
Southern Cal (+6.5) over NOTRE DAME

Last Week: 1-4
Season: 9-15-1

NFL

BROWNS (+4) over Broncos
Bengals (-3) over BILLS
VIKINGS (-3.5) over Chiefs
Texans (+1.5) over JAGUARS
Bears (+3) over LIONS
Redskins (+7) over JETS
STEELERS (+3.5) over Cardinals
Dolphins (+1) over TITANS
Panthers (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS
Chargers (+10.5) over PACKERS
49ERS (+2.5) over Ravens
COLTS (+11) over Patriots
Giants (+5) over EAGLES

Last Week: 7-7
This Week: 0-1
Season: 38-38-2

Thursday Football Pick

I'm going to ride with the surprisingly undefeated Falcons despite that they are on the road on a short work week and that they're due for a loss at some point soon.

Pick is against the spread and home team is in CAPS.

Falcons (-3.5) over SAINTS

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 38-37-2

Football Picks

Making the weekly picks while hoping Sparty finally covers the spread.

All picks against the spread and home team in CAPS.

NCAA

Michigan State (-13.5) over RUTGERS
Oklahoma (-16.5) over Texas (Red River Shootout)
California (+8) over UTAH
Georgia (-3) over Tennessee
Indiana (+7.5) over PENN STATE

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 8-11-1

NFL

Jaguars (+3) over BUCCANEERS
Bills (-2) over TITANS
Browns (+8.5) over RAVENS
FALCONS (-7) over Redskins
Bears (+9) over CHIEFS
EAGLES (-4.5) over Saints
Rams (+9.5) over PACKERS
BENGALS (-2.5) over Seahawks
Cardinals (-2.5) over LIONS
Patriots (-9.5) over COWBOYS
RAIDERS (+5.5) over Broncos
GIANTS (-7) over 49ers
Steelers (+3) over CHARGERS

Last Week: 9-5-1
This Week: 0-1
Season: 31-31-2

Thursday Football Pick

Unlike Joe Philbin, TheBostonInsider seems to have finally figured out the NFL.  A two week run of success does not create a dynasty but it's also worth celebrating when you have a two week record of 19-11-1.

The Colts travel to Houston tonight hoping to get to 3-2 before they face extermination next Sunday against the Patriots juggernaut.  I think the looming beat down is already weighing on their minds and that they'll stumble tonight.

Pick is against the spread and home team is in CAPS.

TEXANS (-2.5) over Colts

Last Week: 9-5-1
Season: 31-30-2

MLB Postseason Predictions

April was so long ago that by now I'm sure many of you have forgot that TheBostonInsider predicted the Red Sox to win the A.L. East, the Tigers to win the A.L. Central, Lloyd McClendon of the Mariners to win A.L. Manager of the Year, and the Nationals to win the N.L. East.

In my defense, not all of the predictions were bad.  Mike Trout has a chance to be the A.L. MVP, David Price could win the A.L. Cy Young, Max Scherzer will not win the N.L. Cy Young but will likely finish a respectable fourth place, Kris Bryant will likely be the N.L. Rookie of the Year, and I was correct in predicting the Pirates, Mets, Cardinals, and Dodgers as playoff teams.

Now it's on to October.  The MLB playoffs kick off today and tomorrow with the Wild Card games and then the Division Series start up on Thursday.

Here are one schmuck's picks for the 2015 playoffs.

A.L. Wild Card

Astros over Yankees

A.L.D.S.

Blue Jays over Rangers
Royals over Astros

A.L.C.S.

Blue Jays over Royals

N.L. Wild Card

Cubs over Pirates

N.L.D.S.

Cubs over Cardinals
Mets over Dodgers

N.L.C.S.

Mets over Cubs

World Series

Blue Jays over Mets

Red Sox v. Indians (October 4, 2015)

Boston Red Sox (78-83) v. Cleveland Indians (80-80)
Progressive Field

SP - Rick Porcello (9-14, 5.02) v. Danny Salazar (13-10, 3.51)

1. Betts, CF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Bogaerts, SS
4. Ortiz, DH
5. Shaw, 1B
6. Castillo, LF
7. Swihart, C
8. Marrero, 3B
9. Bradley, RF

Red Sox v. Indians (October 3, 2015)

Boston Red Sox (78-82) v. Cleveland Indians (79-80)
Progressive Field

SP - Craig Breslow (0-3, 4.22) v. Corey Kluber (8-16, 3.62)

Football Picks

After a slow start, TheBostonInsider seems to be figuring things out at both the college and professional levels.  It might be time to start taking my advice instead of going the other way.

Just be ready for the inevitable 1-4 college week that merges with a 4-12 NFL week.

All picks are against the spread and the home team is in CAPS.

NCAA

Memphis (-8.5) over SOUTH FLORIDA
BYU (-14.5) over UConn
Northern Illinois (-3) over CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Notre Dame (+1.5) over CLEMSON
Alabama (+2.5) over GEORGIA

Last Week: 2-2-1
Season: 6-8-1

NFL

Dolphins (+1.5) over Jets (game played in London, England)
Jaguars (+10) over COLTS
Texans (+6.5) over FALCONS
Panthers (-3) over BUCCANEERS
Giants (+5.5) over BILLS
BEARS (+3) over Raiders
Eagles (-3) over REDSKINS
PATRIOTS (-21) over Bye Week
BENGALS (-3) over Chiefs
Browns (+7.5) over CHARGERS
Packers (-7.5) over 49ERS
Vikings (+7) over BRONCOS
Rams (+7.5) over CARDINALS
Cowboys (+4.5) over SAINTS
SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions

Last Week: 10-6
This Week: 0-0-1
Season:22-25-2

Red Sox Random Thoughts (October 2, 2015)

At the end of July, the Red Sox were a disappointing 46-58 and hope was lost for what was once a promising season.

Then the changes started, first with management and then on the field.

This process began on Saturday, August 2.  The Red Sox confirmed rumors that the team's President and CEO Larry Lucchino would be stepping down from his position at the season's end and that longtime front office fixture Sam Kennedy of Brookline would be replacing him as President of the Red Sox.

Not two weeks later, on August 14, manager John Farrell announced he would miss the rest of the season after being diagnosed with lymphoma and would begin treatment for his cancer immediately.  Bench coach Torey Lovullo was named interim manager.

Following Farrell's news, the team announced just four days later that they had hired Dave Dombrowski to be the President of Baseball Operations.  Dombrowski had just been released from his contract with the Tigers and his hiring, which relegated Kennedy to the business side of things on Yawkey Way, capped off an exciting and hectic start to August.

While all of this was going on, the Red Sox finally began to play good baseball.  The last two months of the season has seen them pull themselves out of last place by going 32-23, a run which includes the major league's second best best record, 25-14, since August 18 which was the day of Dombrowski's hiring.

The Red Sox have several areas of need to address between the end of the season and the start of the 2016 campaign but the optimism brought on amidst all of the changes and a group of young stars that seems to have figured out how to win makes them a way too early favorite to compete for a playoff spot in 2016.

***

Sean McAdam reported yesterday that John Farrell will return as Red Sox manager in 2016 if he is healthy enough to resume the job.

I'm not buying it.

I see this as a public relations move by the Red Sox ownership, who are sympathetic to the manager who led them to the 2013 World Series and is now battling a disease that the team champions with its support of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and the Jimmy Fund.

Dombrowski did not take the job of President of Baseball Operations without the power to make certain moves.  Choosing a manager is one of those inherent powers for Dombrowski's job and unless he really wants Farrell, yesterday's news reeks of saving face for Farrell.

My guess is that sometime around Thanksgiving, Farrell will make an announcement that he is not ready to return to the dugout in 2016, which will allow Dombrowksi the opportunity to choose the next manager.  Torey Lovullo has done a nice job as Farrell's interim replacement and could assume the full-time job or Dombrowski could go out of the organization.

***

Rich Hill, the pride of Milton, has made a case for himself as a candidate to be in the Red Sox starting rotation in 2016.

A veteran who has battled shoulder and elbow injuries that cost him the promise of a long-term career as a starting pitcher, Hill has bounced around as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen for several teams the last few years.  After getting released by the Nationals organization this season, Hill was back in God's Country working out with the Milton Legion team before quickly hooking up with the independent Long Island Ducks where he gave starting another shot.

After a good stint with the Ducks, Hill's contract was purchased by the Red Sox and he was sent to Pawtucket where he again had success as a starter.  With the Red Sox looking to go to a six-man starting rotation in September to limit the innings of rookies Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens, Hill got his chance to start with his hometown team.

In four starts, Hill has proved that he deserves a spot in some team's rotation for 2016.

He has gone 2-1 with an impressive 1.55 ERA with 36 strikeouts and just 5 walks over 29 innings. Mixing in a fastball in the low 90's with his curveball, Hill looks at age 35 like he did as a 27-year-old with the Cubs in 2007 when he went 11-8, finished fifth in the N.L. in strikeouts, and started a playoff game.

A small sample size in September for a team already eliminated from contention should not hurt Hill's chance to get the opportunity to start in 2016.  He has shown in the past that he can be a successful starter and now that he's healthy again, he is proving that once again.

The Red Sox have Clay Buchholz (if his contract option is picked up), Rick Porcello, and Wade Miley under contract for 2016 in addition to Rodriguez and Owens and they also are expected to add a top of the rotation via free agency or by trade so Boston may not be the place where he gets his chance but it was where he earned it.

Red Sox v. Indians (October 2, 2015)

Boston Red Sox (78-81) v. Cleveland Indians (78-80)
Progressive Field

SP - Henry Owens (4-3, 3.84) v. Josh Tomlin (6-2, 3.03)

1. Betts, CF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Bogaerts, SS
4. Ortiz, DH
5. Shaw, 1B
6. Castillo, LF
7. Holt, 3B
8. Swihart, C
9. Bradley, RF

Thursday Night Football And Thursday Football Pick

The NFL's Thursday night football game is not going away anytime soon.  The league makes a lot of money from this game and that's the only important reason why it's here to stay.

As much as I love watching football, and the Thursday game provides an extra 3 hours of football viewing each week, it should be tossed into the Professional Sports Graveyard right next to the shorts the White Sox wore back in 1976 and the NCAA's decision to ban dunking from 1967 to 1976.

It is usually a poorly played game.  The players are almost always coming off of a Sunday game that their bodies have not yet fully recovered from and the coaches are expected to develop and implement a full game plan in 72 hours.  That is a recipe for a bad football game and that is usually what the viewing public is treated to on Thursday night.

Take tonight's game for instance.  The Steelers and Ravens are one of the best rivalries in the current NFL and almost always play a tough and physical game that is enjoyable to watch.  On the short week however, and with the Steelers having to play Michael Vick at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger injured and the Ravens trying to recover from an unlikely 0-3 start with just a few days to prepare and travel, I expect a dud.

I am also torn on who to pick.  I love the Steelers getting points at home in a rivalry game and on the short week, even with Vick at quarterback.  I also do not think the Ravens will start 0-4.  It's a tough call.

As always, the pick is against the spread and the home team is in CAPS.

STEELERS (+3) over Ravens

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 22-25-1

Red Sox v. Yankees (October 1, 2015)

Boston Red Sox (78-80) v. New York Yankees (86-72)
Yankee Stadium

SP - Rich Hill (2-0, 1.17) v. CC Sabathia (5-10, 4.82)

1. Betts, CF
2. Bradley, LF
3. Bogaerts, SS
4. Shaw, 1B
5. Castillo, RF
6. Craig, DH
7. Marrero, 3B
8. Leon, C
9. Rutledge, 2B