NFL Random Thoughts

The Patriots are not looking dominant after three games but in defeating a very good Falcons team today, they showed the NFL that they will be a factor in the Super Bowl race. Tom Brady still looks shaky while stepping up in the pocket and his accuracy is not what Patriots fans are used to seeing, but after missing all but a handful of plays in 2008 due to a knee injury, a little bit of rust on #12 had to be expected. Brady has played the last two games without Wes Welker and has failed to develop a consistent rhythm with veteran Joey Galloway or rookie Julian Edelman while relying heavily on Randy Moss. Expect Brady to return to All-Pro status as he becomes more comfortable with himself and his receiving corps. The defense has proven that they have the potential to be a lot better than many believed they would be after losing Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Richard Seymour. Bill Belichick has rebuilt the defense by stressing youth and speed. In spite of Jerod Mayo's absence with a knee injury, the young defense has played very well. Gary Guyton, a favorite of this space, has stepped in and played some good football in Mayo's place while Vince Wilfork (who left today's game with an undisclosed injury) and Ty Warren have played their usual great football on the line. It is a unit that will improve with experience. There is a long way to go until the playoffs but expect to see the Patriots in contention for the Super Bowl come January... For all the crying and moaning about his indecisiveness about whether or not to retire, you have to love Bret Favre's last-second touchdown pass to beat the 49ers today in his home debut with the Vikings... Thanks to Willie Parker, Stephen Gostkowski, and the Ravens defense, my fantasy football team is in great shape to start off the 2009 season 2-1... Matthew Stafford will always remember today's win as the Lions finally ended their 19-game losing streak as the start of what should be a great NFL career. Lions fans are celebrating the win over the Redskins but they should prepare themselves for more because Stafford looks like he is going to be a star... JaMarcus Russell, the top pick of the Raiders in 2007, looks like he will go down as one of the biggest busts in NFL Draft history. He has a depressing 39.8 quarterback rating with just one touchdown and four interceptions in 2009. For his career, the LSU product has a 68.8 rating with 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Numbers like that will not keep him employed for long... The Saints offense could possibly threaten some of the offensive records posted by the 2007 Patriots... If I was forced to pick the outcome of the Super Bowl right now, I would take the Ravens over the Vikings...

Football Picks

Between teaching, coaching, moving, and going back to school, no time for anything other than he picks this week. Herald guy was late this morning (an ongoing problem for my neighborhood convenience store) so the lines come courtesy of the Globe. NCAA PURDUE (+7) over Notre Dame Texas Tech (+1) over HOUSTON OREGON (+5.5) over California WISCONSIN (-3) over Michigan State MICHIGAN (-20.5) over Indiana Last Week: 3 - 2 Season: 7 - 5 NFL PATRIOTS (-4) over Atlanta ARIZONA (-2.5) over Indianapolis Cleveland (+13.5) over BALTIMORE Chicago (-2) over SEATTLE Denver (-1.5) over OAKLAND ST. LOUIS (+6.5) over Green Bay HOUSTON (-4) over Jacksonville Jack Del Rio Being Fired (-10) over FIELD MINNESOTA (-7) over San Francisco New Orleans (-6) over BUFFALO TAMPA BAY (+6.5) over NY Giants Kansas City (NL) over PHILADELPHIA (I will pick this when a line arrives) CINCINNATI (+4) over Pittsburgh SAN DIEGO (-6) over Miami DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington Carolina (+9) over DALLAS Last Week: 11 - 5 Season: 20 - 12

Football Picks

For people who live in and around Boston, there is no better feeling than kicking the crap out of a New York team, especially when the coach and players are running their mouths and talking smack. The Patriots head to New York's ugly nephew - I mean New Jersey - to take on the Jets this Sunday. The Jets are acting like some college girl celebrating her birthday. You know the type, they make a huge deal out of a night that doesn't really mean anything in the big picture and in the end, all of the buildup and emotion turn the evening into an unmitigated disaster. For the college girl, it means she will get waaaaaay too drunk, have two or three crying episodes, puke on herself, and then fail to hook up with the guy she has crushed on for weeks, leading to one final sob session. For the Jets, it means they will lose at home to a team that always finds a way to win these types of games. The Patriots don't waste time talking junk, they just prepare to win on Sunday. Rex Ryan and Kerry Rhodes can talk the talk but Bill Belichick and his team will walk the walk.... All picks are against the spread and home team is in CAPS. NCAA SYRACUSE (+3) over Northwestern OREGON (-4.5) over Utah WASHINGTON (+18.5) over Southern Cal FLORIDA (-29.5) over Tennessee West Virginia (+7.5) over AUBURN Last Week: 2 - 3 Season: 4 - 3 NFL KANSAS CITY (-3) over Oakland Houston (+6.5) over TENNESSEE Patriots (-3.5) over NY JETS Cincinnati (+9) over GREEN BAY Minnesota (-10) over DETROIT New Orleans (Pck) over PHILADELPHIA Carolina (+6.5) over ATLANTA St. Louis (+10) over WASHINGTON Arizona (+3) over JACKSONVILLE Seattle (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO BUFFALO (-5) over Tampa Bay DENVER (-3) over Cleveland SAN DIEGO (-3) over Baltimore CHICAGO (+3) over Pittsburgh DALLAS (-3) over NY Giants Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI Last Week: 9 - 7 Season: 9 - 7

Football Picks

I apologize for what is about to be a rushed post for the weekly picks but as I start the new school year and prepare for my first football game of the fall (Milton - 27, Brookline - 12), my free and available moments seem to slip away faster than Shawne Merriman's chances to be appear on VH1's "Shot of Love." However, I will not apologize for my (stunning) 3-0 start to the season. Ride the wave. One more thought before I make you a trashload of dough. I was sad to give up my BC season tickets this year but time constraints will make it impossible for me to get to Alumni Stadium often enough to get value out of the seats. However, I am even more sad that Mark Herzlich, the reigning ACC Defensive Player, will miss the entire 2009 season with Ewing's sarcoma, a rare form of cancer. Herzlich's illness is not breaking news but to see such a talented young man forced to the sidelines with cancer at such a young age is troubling. He is expecting to return to the field in 2010 for the Eagles. It would be an amazing story if Herzlich is able to return and dominate the field like he did before getting sick. As one of the premiere linebackers in college football, Herzlich would be a prospect to be taken high in the NFL Draft. The Herzlich era in the Greater Boston area might be extended if that is the case because of the 2011 first-round pick the Patriots own thanks to their trade of Richard Seymour to the Raiders last weekend. That would be a magical ending to Herzlich's story... Home teams in CAPS and all picks are against the spread. NCAA OREGON (-12) over Purdue MICHIGAN (+3) over Notre Dame OKLAHOMA STATE (-15.5) over Houston LSU (-14.5) over Vanderbilt OHIO STATE (+7) over Southern Cal Last Week: 2 - 0 Season: 2 - 0 NFL Tennessee (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH ATLANTA (-4) over Miami Kansas City (+13) over BALTIMORE CAROLINA (+2.5) over Philadelphia Denver (+4) over CINCINNATI Minnesota (-4) over CLEVELAND HOUSTON (-4.5) over NY Jets Jacksonville (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Detroit Dallas (-6) over TAMPA BAY ARIZONA (-6.5) over San Francisco Washington (+6.5) over NY GIANTS SEATTLE (-8.5) over St. Louis Chicago (+3.5) over GREEN BAY PATS (-11) over Buffalo San Diego (-9.5) over OAKLAND

Football Picks are BACK!!!

Well, kind of. The picks for the full slate of NFL games for this weekend as well as five college games will be posted tomorrow. Remember, TheBostonInsider is off to a great start in college football, successfully picking Oklahoma State and Alabama last weekend. The NFL kicks off the regular season tonight as the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers play host to the Titans. The pick ... Tennessee (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH.

Can V-Mart Get Some MVP Love?

Since coming to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, Victor Martinez has done nothing but hit. V-Mart has been killing the ball and with him anchoring the lineup along with Kevin Youkilis, the Sox offense is tearing up opposing pitching. Joe Maurer of the Twins and Mark Teixeira of the Yankees are the MVP favorites but with numbers like these - .321 BA, 6 HR, 25 RBI, .908 OPS in 35 games - and clutch hits like tonight's bases clearing double put Martinez in the discussion. Remember, before the Red Sox traded for Martinez, they were fading in the playoff picture. Now they are the Wild Card favorites and look like they have the weapons to win the World Series. Maybe V-Mart won't win the regular season MVP but I'm sure he would settle for the World Series MVP.

Pats Trade Seymour

In a move that comes as a shock, the Patriots traded Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders this morning for a 2011 first-round pick.

The 29-year-old Seymour, a five-time Pro Bowl selection, was a key member of the great success enjoyed by the Patriots over the past decade. After being drafted with the sixth overall pick in the 2001 draft out of Georgia, Seymour immediately helped turn the Patriots into a winner. The year before he was drafted, the team went 5-11. In his rookie year, the team went 11-5 and won Super Bowl XXXVI. He also helped the team win back-to-back Super Bowl titles in 2003 and 2004.

This move is the latest in a series of maneuvers that have transformed the makeup of the Patriots defense. Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi have retired and Mike Vrable was traded to Kansas City.

This is a risky trade by Bill Belichick. Seymour is coming off a season in which he recorded eight sacks, which tied a career high. The Patriots defense already seemed to have holes to fill without the trade of a former All-Pro lineman. With a high-powered offense led by Tom Brady and Randy Moss that is expected to be one of the best in the NFL, it would be a shame if the success of the team was hampered by a suspect defense.

Looking at this from Belichick's perspective, he saw Seymour as a luxury. The team already has proven veterans Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, and Jarvis Green on the line with promising rookies Ron Brace and Myron Pryor adding depth. The Patriots have short-term and long-term needs at other places and the pick from the Raiders and the salary flexibility created through the loss of Seymour allow the Patriots the opportunity to fill their holes.

One name that has been floated in the past is that of Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers. The Patriots need to improve in getting after the passer and Peppers is one of the best in the NFL at getting at the quarterback. If the Patriots were to add a player of the caliber of Peppers, they would potentially improve their defense over what Seymour brings to the table. However, with the regular season starting this week, it is very unlikely that the Panthers would unload Peppers.

Whatever the Patriots do to replace Richard Seymour, his contributions to the great success of the Patriots over eight seasons will never be forgotten.

Random Thoughts (September 5, 2009)

The weekly picks column will debut next weekend when there is a full slate of NFL and NCAA games but for now, don't be afraid to follow my lead and invest a few bucks in Oklahoma State (-4.5, at home against Georgia) and Alabama (-7, in Atlanta against Virginia Tech)... The Red Sox have a serious problem with Josh Beckett. Their ace is in a serious slump and because I seriously doubt that the Red Sox would continue to pitch him if there was an injury, it looks to be a case of fatigue. Back in 2007, Beckett was placed on the disabled list towards the end of the season to get him some rest. That plan worked as Beckett returned refreshed. He was dominant in October and helped the team win the World Series. If this is simply a case of Beckett being exhausted, the Sox would be wise to follow their plan from 2007. Even though they only have a two-game lead over the Rangers for the A.L. Wild Card, continuing to run a tired (or hurt) Beckett every five days is not putting the team in a position to win. By shutting Beckett down for one or two starts, they will prepare their best pitcher for the playoffs. Even if his replacments - most likely Daisuke Matsuzaka, Michael Bowden or Junichi Tazawa - are horrible, they can't be any worse than Beckett has been in his last five starts (14 homeruns). If the Red Sox are to win the World Series, they need Beckett to be strong. The right move is to give him a short break... The Billy Wagner addition gives Terry Francona the opportunity to overwhelm his opponents at the end of games. Wagner, a borderline Hall of Fame candidate if he can reach 400 career saves (he currently has 385), Daniel Bard (consistently hitting 100 mph with a wicked breaking ball), and Jonathan Papelbon (who has been his usual dominant self as of late) are the best 1-2-3 at the back end of the bullpen in the entire game... If Boston College wins four games this fall, their season will be a success. Expectations at the Heights haven't been this low in a long, long time. Don't blame new coach Frank Spaziani. Former coach Jeff Jagodzinski, who was sent packing for interviewing with the New York Jets (more on him below), did a terrible job of recruiting. The Eagles will be at a serious talent disadvantage on the majority of Saturday's this fall... When Jagodzinski was fired, I was not happy. From the outside, it looked like BC was standing in the way of the career ascension of a successful coach. When a solid but unspectacular program like BC threatens to fire their coach for interviewing for an NFL head coaching job and then follows through on that threat after the coach interviews, the school looks petty. After BC let him go, Jagodzinski landed in Tampa Bay as offensive coordinator of the Buccaneers. He was fired from that job earlier in the week and the story behind it does not speak well to his future as a coach. From the quotes coming out of Tampa Bay, it seems like Jagodzinski was not paying close enough to the details of his offense and was not even calling his own plays, a duty that fell to running backs coach Steve Logan, his offensive coordinator at BC. His lack of preparation with the Bucs and his failure to replenish talent at BC put "Jags" in a tough position as he looks to continue his career on the sidelines... Now that Marquis Daniels has officially signed with the Celtics, they are ready to go out and reclaim their championship. Daniels, a versatile swingman who can handle point guard duties, joins a deep bench that features Rasheed Wallace, Eddie House, Glen Davis, and Shelden Williams. In case you forgot, the C's have the best starting five in basketball - Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, and Kendrick Perkins - to go along with that bench. Look for the Celtics to win their 18th NBA championship next June... It could not have been easy to suspend his best offensive player and a potential NFL first round pick following an ugly loss in his head coaching debut but Oregon's Chip Kelly made the right choice in dismissing senior LeGarrette Blount for the remainder of the 2009 season... As much as I hate him for being the symbol of the whining and crying that is the Duke University men's basketball team, Greg Paulus had a solid game as the starting quarterback for Syracuse today against Minnesota. Don't think I'm going soft on Paulus. I almost cried tears of joy when he tossed an interception in overtime, sealing a 23-20 loss to the Golden Gophers... Enjoy Alabama tonight...