Mindless Thoughts; Football Picks

If the rumors have any truth to them -- and please God, I hope they do -- then I love the potential Red Sox trade for Johan Santana. The players expected to head to Minnesota in return for the two-time Cy Young winner are Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and either Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson. It's true that to get a fish as big as Santana, the hook has to be baited with some important bait. Lester has a great future, Coco is a Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder and Lowrie, Bowden and Masterson have all excelled in the minor leagues. However, Santana is a proven commodity -- you're selling shares in the latest Dot-Com craze to get some solid Microsoft ownership -- and the Sox actually (according to the rumors) get to keep Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. It's a win-win for Boston. Of course, trading for Santana means you have to pay him before he hits free agency about one year from now. A five or six year deal worth between $20-25 million annually is what Santana will command. Should be no problem for the Sox, who have money to spend. But if they pay Santana, they have to go and "adjust" Josh Beckett's contract as well. Beckett is signed through 2009 for an average of $10 million per season with a 2010 option for $12 million. A mega-deal for Santana has to equal a similar deal for Beckett. If not, the Red Sox are putting their clubhouse chemistry -- which was reportedly so great in 2007 -- in serious jeopardy. I wouldn't want my ace upset that the organization went out and paid the new guy -- the talented new guy but still the new guy without a World Series ring -- while he was forgotten. Shouldn't be too much of an issue but it's still an issue that will have to be addressed if/when the Sox acquire Santana... As you may have noticed, I did not pick the winner (against the spread) of last night's Dallas-Green Bay game. I purposely skipped that game in a mini-protest of the NFL Network being available to fans throughout the country. I do have access to the game but I didn't watch it as part of the mini-protest. That protest will not carry into the December 30 Patriots game at New York when the Pats will be going for 16-0 against the Giants on the NFL Network... Paul Pierce still forces some bad shots at the wrong times. Get rid of that habit Paul, before it's too late... Hey Braintree fans, hope your turkey tasted like shit! 42-20 and it wasn't even that close... Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon... As for the picks... HIGH SCHOOL Everett (-21) over Dartmouth Walpole (Pck) over Bishop Feehan Last Week: 1-0 Season: 1-0 NCAA Navy (-14) over Army ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: BC (+4.5) over Virginia Tech SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: LSU (-7) over Tennessee OREGON (Pck) over Oregon State BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP: Missouri (+3) over Oklahoma Last Week: 4-1 Season: 25-28-2 NFL ST. LOUIS (-3) over Atlanta Buffalo (+6) over WASHINGTON MINNESOTA (-4) over Detroit Houston (+4) over TENNESSEE Jacksonville (+6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS NY Jets (+1) over MIAMI San Diego (-7) over KANSAS CITY Seattle (+3) over PHILADELPHIA CAROLINA (-3) over San Francisco Cleveland (-1.5) over ARIZONA Denver (-4) over OAKLAND NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Tampa Bay (LOCK OF THE WEEK) CHICAGO (+1.5) over NY Giants Cincinnati (+7.5) over PITTSBURGH Patriots (-20) over BALTIMORE Last Week: 11-5 Season: 84-68-6 Lock of the Week: 7-5

Happy Thanksgiving; Football Picks

I have so much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving but considering this is a sports "column" I'll stick to what happens on the court, the field and even the ice. I'm thankful for John Henry, the quiet owner of the Red Sox. Everyone in the Red Sox organization gets so much credit for the success of the team but the guy at the top either is forgotten or grouped in with the other owners. Henry is a great owner who has brought two World Series winners to Boston. I am thankful for Peter Chiarelli, general manager of the Bruins. The B's will soon return to glory and it will happen when no one is looking thanks to the Patriots, Red Sox and Celtics. I'm extra thankful for the Kraft family. No explanation is needed for the success of the Pats (and Revolution) but the WEEI "Whiner Line" spoof of Bob and Jonathan makes my day every time I hear it. I am thankful for Kevin Garnett. He is the best Celtic since Larry Bird. He plays so hard every game that maybe, juuuuust maybe, all the youngsters in Boston will finally see a good example of a local NBA player. I'm thankful for Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth. I think Tom Brady is as well. I am thankful for a whole lot more but time keeps me short. Happy Thanksgiving! As for the picks... High School MILTON (+10) over Braintree NCAA WEST VIRGINIA (-17) over UConn Missouri (+2) over KANSAS Oregon (-2) over UCLA AUBURN (-6) over Alabama Virginia Tech (-3.5) over VIRGINIA Last Week: 4-1 Season: 21-27-2 NFL Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT DALLAS (-14) over New York Jets Indianapolis (-11.5) over ATLANTA Denver (+2.5) over CHICAGO CINCINNATI (pck) over Tennessee JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over Buffalo (LOCK OF THE WEEK) Oakland (+5.5) over KANSAS CITY CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston ST. LOUIS (+3) over Seattle NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Minnesota New Orleans (-3) over CAROLINA TAMPA BAY (-3) over Washington ARIZONA (-10.5) over San Francisco SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over Baltimore PATS (-22) over Philadelphia Miami (-16) over PITTSBURGH Last Week: 12-3-1 Season: 73-63-6 Lock of the Week: 6-5

Weekend Picks

I hate to toot my own horn but... 4-1 in my college picks and a whopping 11-3-1 in the NFL with the Denver (-2) pick on the line tonight. Over the last two weeks -- not counting tonight -- TheBostonInsider is 20-7-2 in NFL picks. It's good to be me. My picks for next week will be up on Wednesday. Update: Denver's 34-20 win up's the record on the week to 12-3-1 with a two week total of 21-7-2!!!

Johan Santana

Now that the Yankees and Alex Rodriguez have come to terms on the most unholy deal since Adam Vinatieri left the Patriots for the Colts, the Red Sox can strike for the best "available" player in baseball. Johan Santana and the Boston Red Sox would be a perfect marriage. The Minnesota Twins are in a tough spot. They just don't have the money to keep the two-time Cy Young winner. To stay competitive in the AL Central, the Twins need to get back young, cheap talent. That is where the Red Sox come into play. Under Theo Epstein, the Red Sox have become one of MLB's leaders in developing young talent. Just looking at the current roster in Boston will reveal the impact of Epstein's decision to draft and develop players instead of relying on free agency. Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester all were drafted by Epstein and all contributed immensely to the World Series championship. Epstein also refused to part ways with Kevin Youkilis and Manny Delcarmen -- two players he inherited from Dan Duquette. Also, players like Clay Buchholz, Craig Hansen, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie and Brandon Moss are all on the horizon. As much as I love seeing the Sox draft, develop and play the kids because they give the team financial flexibility, this is an instance when I would love to see Epstein use some of that talent to get a pitcher who would set up the Sox for the next decade. The Sox could part with two pitchers from the group of Lester, Masterson and Buchholz and then add Coco Crisp (the Twins will probably be looking to replace Torii Hunter in centerfield) to pry Santana away from Minnesota. That would give the Twins two young starters to add to their current crop of Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn and a solid (and cheap) replacement for Hunter. The Twins would then be able to build around their pitching and a lineup that features 2006 MVP Justin Morneau and Joe Maurer. On the other hand, the Red Sox would enter 2008 with a rotation of Santana, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and the pitcher they don't send to the Twins. As we have seen in 2004 and 2007, pitching is what ultimately wins in October. I'll let the Yankees mash away with A-Rod, Jeter and Posada all summer but when push comes to shove in the playoffs, I know that Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina can't get the job done.

Football Picks

I'm a little behind schedule this week so I will spare you the pointless rant. Here are the picks... NCAA Ohio State (-3.5) over MICHIGAN MICHIGAN STATE (+2.5) over Penn State Boston College (+9) over CLEMSON Oklahoma (-7) over TEXAS TECH SOUTH FLORIDA (-9) over Louisville Last Week: 1-4 Season: 17-26-2 NFL San Diego (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE Kansas City (+16) over INDIANAPOLIS Oakland (+4.5) over MINNESOTA Cleveland (-3) over BALTIMORE Tampa Bay (-3.5) over ATLANTA CINCINNATI (-3) over Arizona PHILADELPHIA (-9.5) over Miami HOUSTON (Pck) over New Orleans GREEN BAY (-10) over Carolina New York Giants (-3) over DETROIT NEW YORK JETS (+10) over Pittsburgh Washington (+11) over DALLAS St. Louis (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO (LOCK OF THE WEEK) SEATTLE (-5) over Chicago Patriots (-17) over BUFFALO DENVER (-2) over Tennessee Last Week: 9-4-1 Season: 61-60-5 Lock of the Week: 5-5 One Note, the picks should be out by next Wednesday to account for the Thanksgiving games. A few local high school games may be added in for fun.

Random Thoughts (November 11, 2007)

Happy Veterans Day. You may hate President Bush and his policies in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terror in general but please take a few moments today to remember all the brave men and women who defend our freedom and those who gave their lives in the name of America... Another terrible day for my college football picks. TheBostonInsider went just 1-4 yesterday and is now a mush like 1-8-1 over the last two weeks. Hope no one actually takes my picks seriously... The hints are there in the print media. The Red Sox will be making a serious run at Alex Rodriguez. Thanksgiving -- the holiday that brought us Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett -- may be the time Theo shows up at the Rodriguez household with a $240 million turkey... I won't get ahead of myself after only five games but the Celtics are a joy to watch. "Big Baby" Glen Davis played a big role in the C's win over New Jersey last night. BBD can rebound, score around the basket and pass the ball like a veteran, with KG there to teach him the ropes Davis could be a silent force off the bench... No Pats game this Sunday gives us all an opportunity to count our winnings. 8-1 against the spread is almost as impressive as the 9-0 record... Even though Roger Goodell is trying his best at keeping the Patriots from becoming the greatest dynasty in NFL history, no amount of executive control can stop the Belichick-Pioli-Kraft Express. Goodell stole our first round pick after VideoGate but with the 49ers sinking fast, the Pats will probably end up with a Top 5 pick come April. Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long, Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, Ohio State linebacker Jamie Laurinaitis or Penn State linebacker Dan Connor would all be welcome additions to the New England franchise. I hope Joe Staley was worth it... BC fans, make sure to book your trips to the Champs Sports Bowl before it's too late... Good luck Rasheed, Olajuwon, Chrs and Dorall. Hope you don't forget your old coach after today's experience at Alumni Stadium... I will enjoy the prime rib today...

Pats Against The World; Football Picks

I mentioned the Patriots briefly on Tuesday but I saved my thoughts from their triumph over the Colts for this space because I wanted a few days to settle down and gather my thoughts. The Pats 24-20 victory over the Colts was the first time in the history of sports that a team got screwed by the officials and still won the game. And it wasn't like the officiating was quietly favoring the Colts -- they received the benefit of every crucial call during the game. Bill Simmons breaks it all down in his column today so I won't waste words here but it was a horrible display by the zebras. The pass interference calls against Ellis Hobbs, Asante Samuel and Randy Moss were all no questions asked, without a doubt, absolute wrong calls. It really did look like the NFL, Roger Goodell (commissioner), Mike Pereira (head of the officials), Bill Polian (don shula version 2.007 -- yes, shula's name is purposely in lowercase) and the entire Colts team was involved in a plot to keep the Patriots down. In the end we haven't heard anything on the subject from Belichick and the Patriots -- what a surprise -- and even the local media hasn't hit too hard on this issue. The reason for that is simple: THE PATRIOTS WON THE GAME!!! People can talk all they want about video tape and cheating and can do what they must to try and have the game be changed but nothing can stop this team. No amount of bad calls can keep Peyton "When Do I Shoot My Next Commercial" Manning from fumbling on his last two possessions. Nothing can keep Randy Moss from making a one-handed catch going across the middle. Nothing can stop the Patriots from being the Patriots. This team will run the table. This team is destined to finish 19-0. Will there be any talk of tainted Super Bowls and rumors of cheating when they trounce the Cowboys, 52-21? Of course there will be. And you know what will happen then? Nothing. Winning will be the greatest answer this team can produce and they produce louder than any team in NFL history. As for the picks... NCAA Indiana (-2.5) over NORTHWESTERN (Play 13!!!) TENNESSEE (-1) over Arkansas NOTRE DAME (+4) over Air Force Auburn (+2) over GEORGIA OKLAHOMA (-40) over Baylor Last Week: 0-4-1 Season: 16-22-2 NFL TENNESSEE (-4) over Jacksonville KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver Buffalo (-3) over MIAMI Cleveland (+10) over PITTSBURGH St. Louis (+11) over NEW ORLEANS Atlanta (+4) over CAROLINA WASHINGTON (-3) over Philadelphia GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota (LOCK OF THE WEEK) Cincinnati (+3.5) over BALTIMORE Chicago (-4) over OAKLAND Dallas (-3) over NY GIANTS Detroit (+1.5) over ARIZONA SAN DIEGO (+4.5) over Indianapolis SEATTLE (-10) over San Francisco Last Week: 6-8 Season: 52-56-4 Lock of the Week: 4-5

What I Think The Red Sox Might Be Doing

Things are pretty quiet with the Red Sox these days which is quite a different story than it was after their 2004 World Series championship. Back then the team lost Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera to free agency and people in Boston feared it might be another 86 years before the Sox won the Series. This time it is so much more calm. The team has a base of young talent that will keep them competitive -- at least -- through the middle of the next decade. Theo Epstein and his scouts and minor league staff have produced players ready to perform on baseball's biggest stage. The one mark against Theo is his hit-or-miss track record in free agency. While I don't disagree with him letting Pedro walk after 2004, I question his decision to let Lowe and Cabrera walk, especially after they were replaced with Edgar Renteria (who I did love at the time) and Matt Clement. Will 2007 be a different story for Theo? I think so. The Red Sox have already resigned Curt Schilling. It was a smart move on both sides and I certainly expect Schill to carry the back end of the Boston rotation in 2008. Next up is Mike Lowell. Lowell and the Red Sox should come to an agreement as soon as possible. Lowell (leadership, defense and power) is perfect for the Sox and the Sox (Fenway Park, Green Monster and adoring fans) are perfect for Lowell. Let's hope 3-years/$42-million gets it done. The question for the Sox after Schilling and Lowell is what to do next. That young base of talent -- Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen and Clay Buchholz with Craig Hansen, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie on the way -- come extremly cheap. This is a time for the Red Sox to make a significant move that may be unpopular at first but will give them an offensive force for the next decade. Yes, I'm talking about Alex Rodriguez. Think about it for a second. It makes sense. Manny Ramirez is nearing the end of his Hall of Fame run and who better to plug in behind Big Papi in the Boston lineup? A-Rod, once a hero in these parts (when he wanted to give back money to come here but was shot down by the Players Union) and then a villain (too many reasons to list), could become the ultimate hero. Larry Lucchino always loved to make the "Evil Empire/Star Wars" reference between the Yankees and Red Sox and A-Rod could easily play the part of Anakin Skywalker/Darth Vader/redemption in the end role. In 2008, the Sox lineup (with A-Rod) would look a lot like this: 1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF 2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B 3. Alex Rodriguez, SS 4. David Ortiz, DH 5. Manny Ramirez, LF 6. Mike Lowell, 3B 7. J.D. Drew, RF 8. Kevin Youkilis, 1B 9. Jason Varitek, C Good luck getting through that lineup. And unlike the awesome New York Yankee lineups from the past few years that didn't win the World Series, that Boston lineup would be supported by a Josh Beckett/Daisuke Matsuzaka/Jon Lester/Clay Buchholz/Curt Schilling/Tim Wakefield starting rotation and a Jonathan Papelbon/Hideki Okajima/Manny Delcarmen/Mike Timlin/Craig Hansen bullpen. What's not to like? There would be some issues with bringing A-Rod to Boston. The Sox would have to find a taker for Julio Lugo (the Astros or Cardinals -- if Eckstein walks -- have a need), repair A-Rod's image in the Boston clubhouse (I'm sure 'Tek could forget the past and Papi is a reported close ally of Rodriguez) and make room on the payroll (not that big of a problem with all the young guys making less than a million each and Manny's money probably coming off the books after '08). You may hate him today but I'm sure once Theo pulls off this move (for 7-years and $210-million) that the A-Rod jerseys will be flying off the shelves.

Random Thoughts (November 6, 2007)

Great news from the Red Sox. The team has agreed with Curt Schilling on a one-year contract worth $8-million (with an additional $5-million in incentives). Good signing for the Red Sox and a smart move for Schilling, who could have made more money on the open market but will pitch in the comfort of Fenway as he makes a final push for another World Series as well as the Hall of Fame... The Patriots are 9-0 and the talk of an undefeated season gains momentum. With their 24-20 defeat of the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday, the Pats have only three more "challenges" on their way to 16-0 -- the Steelers (in Foxboro) and the Ravens and Giants (on the road). The other four games are against the Eagles, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. I hate to say it but the Patriots will finish 16-0. However, it is more important for the Pats to finish the season holding up the Lombardi Trophy than it will be to run the table. I don't doubt for one second that Belichick and the team believe that is the case... From UNH offensive coordinator to OC at Oregon to head honcho at a Pac-10 school. What a story that would (will?) be... I really hope BC runs the table in the ACC (at Maryland and Clemson, at home against Miami and then the ACC Championship game) and makes it to the Orange Bowl. The Eagles have a very fickle following locally and a run to a BCS bowl game would make people take notice that BC is a legitimate program. It would also help Jeff Jagodzinski recruiting efforts -- especially down south... My early Final Four prediction: North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis and Indiana... Kevin Garnett is a joy to watch. The NBA brand of hoops might not be to your liking but the passion that KG plays with is Cowens-like. The triumvirate of Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen just might keep the Duck Boats busy come late June... Enjoy reruns of The Office on TBS tonight

FLUSH....

That is the sound of BC's hopes for a shot at the national championship after last night's 27-17 loss to Florida State. At least the Matty Ice (he looked more like Natty Ice) talk can end. Ryan should end up as a Heisman finalist but the trophy will be going to Oregon's Dennis Dixon. BC can still win the ACC Atlantic Division -- they have a one-game lead with three to play -- and if they make the ACC Championship Game, they can do no worse than the Gator Bowl with a trip to the Orange Bowl still a reality. Last night should be a kick in the ass for Jeff Jagodzinski. As much as I love to see local talent shine at BC, he needs to go into Florida and get recruits with speed. I believe BC is a better football team than FSU but the speed of the Seminoles was too much for the lead-footed Eagles to handle. If BC wants to be a player nationally, they have to get faster. It could be worse. At least BC didn't lose to Navy yesterday. I wonder who Notre Dame will turn to after they can Charlie Weis like Tuna? Think Charlie will return to the Pats? ND is 1-8!

Celtics; Football Picks

Maybe I am just a tad bit excited. Maybe it is the left over feelings from watching the Red Sox win the World Series at a time when the Patriots are making history in the NFL. It may even be related to Boston College making the case for a playoff system in college football as the reside in the No. 2 spot in the national rankings. Whatever it is, it has me believing that the Boston Celtics are going to make a serious run at the NBA championship this year. Coming off a miserable 24-win season, C's fans could only hope the team would have success in the Draft Lottery, therefore getting a shot at either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. When that failed -- they received the No. 5 pick -- all hope was lost. It was rebuilding time (again) for the team constantly rebuilding since 1986. Then at the Draft, Danny Ainge made a bold, however mocked, trade for Ray Allen. There were rumors circling that Ainge had targeted Kevin Garnett but when KG let it be known Boston was not in his plans, Ainge scooped up the 32-year-old Allen. Not much but it was an improvement. That move for Allen changed Garnett's mind about Boston though. KG saw a team with Paul Pierce and Allen, two veteran stars with plenty of miles on their basketball odometers, and decided he was in. Ainge landed KG from Minnesota for a package that included future All-Star Al Jefferson along with Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Theo Ratliff's contract, Sebastian Telfair and draft picks. Now the C's were top heavy -- KG, Pierce and Allen had much in common. They are All-Star talents who are nearing the back nine without a title. They are perfect fits for each other and the Boston basketball community that has longed for a winner since the early days of Bill Clinton. There are questions on this team -- is Rajon Rondo capable of running the point, is Kendrick Perkins ready to play 30-minutes a night, is there a bench??? -- but with the trio of stars leading this team, there will be plenty of answers. I see the C's stumbling a little early on as players get comfortable with each other and their new roles but this team will hit its' stride by February. In a watered down Eastern Conference, the C's will be the top team, running the Pistons off the floor in the Eastern Finals before falling in 6 games to the Phoenix Suns. KG will be the MVP, Pierce will return to the All-Star Game and Allen will nail 45% of his 3-pointers. Doc Rivers will look like an actual NBA coach with the talent assembled in front of him and Celtic fans will be ready for a title in 2008-09. As for the picks... NCAA NOTRE DAME (-3) over Navy Nebraska (+19) over KANSAS MICHIGAN STATE (+4) over Michigan Wisconsin (+15.5) over OHIO STATE BOSTON COLLEGE (-6.5) over Florida State Last Week: 2-3 Season: 16-18-1 NFL Washington (-3.5) over NY JETS KANSAS CITY (-2.5) over Green Bay TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Arizona Carolina (+4) over TENNESSEE San Francisco (+3.5) over ATLANTA Jacksonville (+3) over NEW ORLEANS DETROIT (-3) over Denver BUFFALO (+1) over Cincinnati San Diego (-7) over MINNESOTA CLEVELAND (-1.5) over Seattle Patriots (-5) over INDIANAPOLIS (LOCK OF THE CENTURY) OAKLAND (-3) over Houston Dallas (-3) over PHILADELPHIA PITTSBURGH (-9) over Baltimore (LOCK OF THE WEEK) Last Week: 7-5 Season: 46-48-4 Lock of the Week: 3-5