2022 NBA Mock Draft

 While still in recovery from the Celtics collapse in the Finals, TheBostonInsider is here as always to make the annual predictions on what could happen at the annual NBA Draft.

Before I dive in to the Mocking of the Draft, I'd like to share my thoughts on the Celtics and their very bright future.  

Yes, it was disappointing to see the Warriors take control down the stretch of Game 4 and win the last three games of the Finals to claim their fourth title of the Steph Curry Era.  But I'm more of the mindset to credit the Warriors than to attack the Celtics for this outcome.  Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should be the head of a core that will contend for the next several years and, like many young stars who have failed to win a title in their first shot at the Finals, it is expected that this experience will only benefit Tatum and Brown in their development as players and as leaders.

Boston will face a tough road in the East the next few years as Milwaukee, Miami, and Philadelphia figure to remain in the contender picture and young teams such as Cleveland and Detroit could also factor into contention.  

But with Tatum and Brown on the court, Ime Udoka on the sidelines, and Brad Stevens in the front office there is legitimate optimism that this run to the Finals will be the start of a long period of contention - and, hopefully, several championships - for the Celtics.

***

2022 NBA Mock Draft

1. Houston Rockets (projected trade with Orlando Magic): Paolo Banchero, F, Duke (Houston sends Kevin Porter Jr. as well as the #3 and #17 picks to Orlando for the #1 pick)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren, F, Gonzaga

3. Orlando Magic (projected trade with Houston Rockets): Jabari Smith, F, Auburn

4. Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray, F, Iowa

5. Detroit Pistons: Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue

6. Indiana Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin, G, Arizona

7. Toronto Raptors (projected trade with Portland Trailblazers): Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky (Toronto sends OG Anunoby to Portland for the #7 pick)

8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Los Angeles Lakers): Dyson Daniels, G, G League Ignite

9. San Antonio Spurs: AJ Griffin, G, Duke

10. Washington Wizards: Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin

11. New York Knicks: Jalen Duren, F, Memphis

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Los Angeles Clippers): Ousmane Dieng, F, New Zealand Breakers

13. Charlotte Hornets: Mark Williams, C, Duke

14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Ochai Agbaji, G, Kansas

15. Charlotte Hornets (from New Orleans Pelicans): Malaki Branham, G, Ohio State

16. Atlanta Hawks: Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor

17. Orlando Magic (projected trade with Houston Rockets): TyTy Washington, G, Kentucky

18. Chicago Bulls: E.J. Liddell, G, Ohio State

19. Minnesota Timberwolves: Tari Eason, F, LSU

20. San Antonio Spurs (from Toronto Raptors): Nikola Jovic, F, ABA Mega Mozzart

21. Denver Nuggets: Jalen Williams, G, Santa Clara

22. Memphis Grizzles (from Utah Jazz): Patrick Baldwin Jr., F, Milwaukee

23. Philadelphia 76ers: Dalen Terry, G, Arizona

24. Milwaukee Bucks: Wendell Moore Jr., G, Duke

25. San Antonio Spurs (from Boston Celtics): Walker Kessler, C, Auburn

26. Houston Rockets (from Dallas Mavericks): Jaden Hardy, G, G League Ignite

27. Miami Heat: Kennedy Chandler, G, Tennessee

28. Golden State Warriors: Kendall Brown, F, Baylor

29. Memphis Grizzlies: Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame

30. Denver Nuggets (from Oklahoma City Thunder via Phoenix Suns): Jake LaRavia, F, Wake Forest

***

As the Celtics do not have a first round pick (it was sent to the Spurs as part of the Derrick White trade), here are some thoughts on what they might do with their pick at #53 and some thoughts on the young players already on their roster.

Stevens will not be expected to fill an immediate need with the 53rd pick.  The odds of whoever they select, if they even make the pick, of making the roster are slim.  But, a roll of the dice to add a player with a specific skill that could possibly be developed into a rotational player a few years down the road is why the Celtics pay Stevens the big bucks.  Never forget, the Spurs selected Manu Ginobili with the 57th pick in 1999 and he is bound for the Hall of Fame after winning four championships in San Antonio.

The Celtics, like many other NBA teams, could stand to add shooting and rebounding.  A developmental point guard prospect is not a bad idea either.

Some intriguing prospects that could possibly be on the board at the end of this year's Draft are Italian wing Gabriele Procida, Italian point guard Matteo Spagnolo, Croatian center Karlo Matkovic, and American forward Dominick Barlow.

Procida (age 20) is an athletic 6-7 wing with an NBA ready 3-point shot.  It's not crazy to predict that with some physical development that he could be a rotation player in the NBA in a few years.  

Spagnolo (age 19) demonstrates the ability to operate in the pick and roll to create for himself or for his teammates and has a good mid-range jump shot that, with time, should extend to the 3-point line.

Matkovic (age 21) has NBA size at 6-11 and 230 pounds and is an aggressive screener and rebounder with the ability to finish near the basket.

Barlow (age 19) has the size and athleticism to defend screen and roll, protect the basket, and rebound. A possible future Robert Williams.

In the last two drafts (Danny Ainge was making the picks in 2020 before Stevens replaced him prior to the 2021 Draft), Boston added Israeli point guard Yam Madar (47th pick in 2020) and French wing Juhann Begarin (45th pick in 2021).  Both players have stayed overseas, with Madar (age 21) playing this season in Serbia for KK Partizan and Begarin (age 19) playing for Paris Basketball in France.  Madar is viewed as the better offensive product, and has drawn good reviews for an improved 3-point shot, while Begarin needs work on his shooting but has the physical profile to defend the wing in the NBA.  Both will get an opportunity to shine in July's Summer League.

The Celtics also have 2020 first round picks Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard on the roster as well as 2021 undrafted rookie Sam Hauser.  

Pritchard contributed off the bench as a shooter in the playoffs.  He's somewhat of a liability on defense due to his size (5-11) but he competes and has shown he can make open shots to complement Tatum and Brown.

Nesmith has not proven to be an NBA caliber shooter after being drafted for that very reason.  He is a good sized (6-6) and athletic wing who has played hard in the minutes he has received.  If Stevens keeps him on the roster for next season, he will have to prove he can slow down on offense and contribute by making open shots.  In a way, Nesmith may end up being this year's first round pick in that after two years spent mostly watching from the bench, he possibly could end up earning a contributing role next season in place of them not having a first rounder to provide that optimism.

Hauser is a 6-7 shooter.  With Tatum and Brown drawing so much attention from opposing defenses, Hauser could find a way to stick in the rotation if makes open 3's and is not a negative on defense.

Boston will not have great flexibility with the salary cap in upcoming years so drafting and developing talent to complement their two stars at the end of the first and second rounds will be critical to maintaining long term success.  While expectations for the likes of Pritchard, Madar, Begarin, Hauser, and whomever is selected at 53 tonight should not be overly high, Stevens and Udoka do need to identify prospects that have the necessary skills to build a deep roster that Tatum and Brown can lead to championships.

NBA Finals Random Thoughts (June 9, 2022)

Observations from a series that is trending toward an 18th championship banner for the Garden's rafters.

***

The Celtics took a 2-1 series lead last night after a solid team effort.  In the first Finals game played in Boston since 2010, Jayson Tatum led the way with 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists while Jaylen Brown added 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists.  Marcus Smart and Al Horford led a strong defensive effort.  Grant Williams, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard also made contributions to the 116-100 victory.

However, the biggest factor in what was a dominating win was Robert Williams III.  Williams posted 8 points, 10 rebounds, 4 blocks (and several other shot alterations), and 3 steals to help spark the Celtics victory.  His presence on both ends of the floor was a significant reason why Boston held a 52-26 points in the paint advantage in Game 3. 

Williams mix of defense, rebounding, and interior scoring was a major factor in the Celtics second half rise to the top of the Eastern Conference standings.  Then in a blowout victory over the Timberwolves on March 27 Williams suffered a tear of the meniscus in his knee and his season looked to be over.  

After a March 30 surgery and a projected recovery of 6-8 weeks, Williams surprisingly returned during Game 3 of what would be Boston's first round sweep of the Nets.  Clearly not at 100%, his return still made the Celtics a championship contender.  He aggravated the knee with a bone bruise in Game 3 of the Milwaukee series (and then missed the next four games) and also missed Game 3 of the Conference Finals against Miami.  Even not at full strength, Williams flashed moments when his offense and defense could raise the team to championship level basketball.

Williams spoke of the challenges of playing through pain after the game.  Regarding the injury and his fast return from surgery he said, "I think it's a matter of playing through pain.  Obviously (I am) not getting the time off that I need for this injury.  But, we'll focus on that after the season."

Last night was the first time since the original injury that Williams looked like the player that earned 2nd Team All-Defense.  His energy on both ends was a major boost to his team, which was coming off of a 107-88 loss in Game 2.

It will be interesting to see how Williams' knee responds to only having one day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4, but his mental and physical toughness to play through the pain has helped his team get to within two wins of a championship.  

***

Boston is not alone is dealing with injuries.

Steph Curry, the future Hall of Famer who is averaging 31.3 points per game through the first three Finals games while making a total of 18 3-pointers, emerged from a late fourth quarter loose ball scrum with a noticeable limp.

Curry, who has a long history of ankle injuries that have been addressed by several surgeries and who was forced to miss the last five regular season games after Marcus Smart crashed into his leg going for a loose ball in a March 16 game between the two Finals teams, stayed in the game for the next two minutes of play before being removed with the other starters with 2:19 left and the Celtics holding a 14-point lead.

While Curry downplayed the injury, saying that, "I don't feel like I'll miss a game."  However, his coach and teammates certainly are worried.

Steve Kerr, who kept Curry in after the injury, told the media after the game that, "We'll know more tomorrow," when asked about Curry's availability for Friday's pivotal Game 4.  Draymond Green said that, "You always worry," and Klay Thompson addressed the challenge of beating Boston without the two-time MVP and three-time NBA Champion when he said, "Without him, it will be very difficult."

I cannot imagine Curry not playing tomorrow, but how much of a factor the injury plays in impacting Curry's movement with and without the ball will play a critical role in Friday's game and the remainder of the series.

***

Tatum and Brown, Boston's two young stars that came to the Celtics as the third overall pick in the 2017 and 2018 Drafts, are just two wins away from their first championship and both seem locked in to doing what is needed to defeat the Warriors.

Tatum is averaging 22 points, almost 5.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game.  Brown is posting 22.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4,3 assists per game.  Both have also played solid individual and team defense.

Many in Boston have expressed doubts whether the two stars could play together and win a championship.  While there is a lot of basketball left to play in the Finals and the Celtics are no lock to defeat the Warriors, Tatum and Brown have made it clear in their run to the Eastern Conference Championship and so far in the Finals that they are more than capable of leading a team to a title.

Both players will need to continue to be aggressive as scorers and play makers for their team while also playing tough defense and collecting rebounds.  This is their time to prove all doubters wrong and so far they are being successful in that mission.

Expect both, and especially Tatum, to have big nights tomorrow on short rest and put the Celtics in a commanding 3-1 series lead.

***

One barrier to a Celtics championship parade is their (lack of) performance in the third quarter.

Third quarter dominance has been a staple of the Warriors dynasty with Curry, Thompson, Green, and Kerr and so far it is the only thing keeping them in the series.

In Game 1, the Warriors erased a 2 point halftime deficit with a 38-24 third quarter.  Boston was able to rescue the win with their own domination in a 40-16 fourth quarter.  In Game 2, the Warriors expanded on a 2-point halftime lead with an explosive 35-14 advantage in the third that led to their victory.  Last night's third quarter was not as significant but the Warriors did cut a 12-point halftime deficit to 4-points going into the fourth.

For the series, Golden State is an astounding +43 in the third quarter.  This is an issue that Ime Udoka needs to address.  

One simple solution would be for the Celtics to improve their own offensive efficiency after halftime by cutting down on turnovers that the Warriors turn into quick points and to instead get their own buckets to diminish any hot shooting by Curry and Friends.

Another possibility would be to juggle the third quarter lineup and play Grant Williams as an undersized (6-6) center and play him with Tatum, Brown, Smart, and White to create an offensive unit of five wings that should be able to handle the Warriors pressure defense and on defense be able to switch aggressively on Golden State's never ending waves of ball screens and dribble hand-offs.

This small lineup would erase Boston size advantage that they've used to take the lead in the series but it may also help to negate the explosiveness of the Warriors offense.

***

Adjustments are also likely from Kerr, especially with a hobbled Curry and a short turnaround between Games 3 and 4 for his veteran team.

Through the first three games, the Warriors have relied almost exclusively on a seven-man rotation of Curry, Thompson, Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Otto Porter Jr., and Jordan Poole.  Andre Iguodala played 12 minutes in Game 1 before the return of Gary Payton II in the last two games following his fractured elbow suffered against the Grizzlies earlier in the playoffs.

Kerr does not have a lot of proven options on his bench, but it would not be surprising to see Juan Toscano-Anderson (7 total minutes in the Finals through three games), Damion Lee (7 total minutes), Jonathan Kuminga (7 total minutes), or Moses Moody (9 total minutes) earn the opportunity to lengthen the Warriors bench and provide some much needed length and energy against Boston.

***

The Finals are far from over, but I'm sticking with Celtics in 6.

NBA Conference Finals Random Thoughts (May 26, 2022)

The Celtics are on the cusp of reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 but even with a 3-2 lead over the Miami Heat and having the luxury of playing Game 6 at TD Garden, the Green should not looking ahead.

Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals will be played tomorrow night exactly two weeks after the Bucks blew a chance to closeout the Celtics in Milwaukee in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals.  That memory alone should be enough motivation for the Celtics to play with the needed sense of urgency to finish this series.

Winning tomorrow night may end up making the difference if the Celtics are to win their first championship since 2008.  Boston is dealing with a myriad of health issues - Jayson Tatum's shoulder, Robert Williams' knee, Marcus Smart's ankle - and with the Finals not starting until Thursday, June 2 the Celtics can buy themselves several days to rest and recuperate in preparation to play the Western Conference champions.  Winning tomorrow night also saves the Celtics from flying to and from Miami for a potential Game 7 on Sunday night.  The extra 48 hours and not having to travel could be the difference between being relatively healthy heading into the Finals or being a banged up club heading into the Finals.

***

Ten years ago, the Celtics won a Game 5 in Miami to give themselves a 3-2 lead heading back to Boston for Game 6 with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals.  The Celtics failed to closeout the Heat, as LeBron James played one of the best games of his great career (45 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists) in a Miami blowout in Boston before the Heat held on to beat the Celtics in Game 7 in Miami. 

I do not see anyone on the Heat capable of pulling off a performance like that tomorrow.  Yes, Bam Adebayo had monster performance in Game 3 with 31 points and 10 rebounds but for the most part he's been slowed in this series by Williams, Al Horford, and Grant Williams.  Yes, Jimmy Butler put up 41 points in Game 1 and 29 points in Game 2, but he is struggling with a knee injury and has scored just 27 total points in the last three games.  But if the Celtics are relatively healthy heading into Game 6 - which is no guarantee - than their team and individual defense should be enough to suffocate Miami and allow the Celtics to celebrate with their fans on Friday night.

***

Both the the Western and Eastern Conference Finals have been mostly anticlimactic.

Out West, the Warriors stormed out to a commanding 3-0 lead before Luka Doncic saved the Mavericks season with a 30 point, 14 rebound, 9 assist masterpiece in Game 4.  Golden State has the chance tonight at home to end the series and earn a sixth Finals trip of the Steph Curry and Klay Thompson era.  

In the East, the Celtics and Heat have taken turns dominating each other in the fist four games.  Game 5 was close at halftime but then the Celtics blew the game open in the second half.

Hopefully, the NBA Finals will be a better showcase of competition than we've seen in the Conference Finals.

***

Looking ahead, a Celtics-Warriors match up in the Finals is intriguing.

The Warriors have the championship pedigree, with Curry and Thompson (as well as Draymond Green) having won three championships in their five Finals trips from 2015-2019.  As they dealt with injuries in 2020 and 2021 they missed the playoffs but were able to rebuild an aging roster that is now on the cusp of another Finals trip.

The Celtics seem to be on the verge of realizing the vision of Danny Ainge when he traded away Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to the Nets in 2013 for a handful of draft picks.  Two of those picks became Tatum and Jaylen Brown.  Tatum is now in his third Conference Finals and Brown is in his fourth Conference Finals and the two young superstars (Tatum turned 24 in March and Brown will turn 26 in October) seem primed to take the next step.

Both teams have prolific offenses.  Golden State relies on the 3-point shot like they did in their previous Finals runs while Curry (25.5 points per game) and Thompson (20.4) still lead the way.  However, this Warriors team also can rely on Jordan Poole (18.5) and Andrew Wiggins (17.2) to provide secondary scoring that causes nightmares for opposing coaches.  Boston also relies on its two stars to do most of the scoring.  Tatum averages 26.9 points per game and Brown adds 23.6 points per game.  The Celtics then rely on their depth for secondary scoring with Smart (12.1), Derrick White (11 since coming to Boston at the trade deadline), Horford (10.2), and Robert Williams (10) providing balance.

They were also two of the best defenses in the league in the regular season and in the playoffs the Celtics (first) and Warriors (second) have the best team defensive ratings.

In the end, I believe it will come down to health.  If Boston can play their regular rotation in the Finals I believe they are good enough to overcome the Warriors and claim the franchise's 18th NBA Championship.  Marcus Smart was Defensive Player of the Year and Robert Williams was 2nd Team All-Defense.  If they play at full speed, the Celtics can protect the rim and make life difficult for even the best of guards.  Boston has the flexibility to use Smart, White, Brown, and Tatum to switch on to any perimeter player with Williams, Horford, and Grant Williams able to help around the perimeter and protect the basket.

Celtics in 6. 

***

Enjoy Luke Doncic tonight.

TheBostonInsider's Annual NFL Mock Draft

 After a few months away due to Santa bringing me Covid for Christmas, the annual chaos of basketball season, and the day-to-day madness of being a father of five, TheBostonInsider is back in business beginning tonight with the annual NFL Mock Draft.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia  

2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

3. Houston Texans: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

4. New York Jets: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

5. New York Giants: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

6. Carolina Panthers: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

7. New York Giants (from Chicago): Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon

8. Atlanta Falcons: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

10. New York Jets (from Seattle): Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

11. Washington Commanders: Drake London, WR, USC

12. Baltimore Ravens (projected trade with Minnesota): Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia                                        Ravens send 14 and 100 to Minnesota for 12

13. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

14. Minnesota Vikings: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

16. New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis via Philadelphia): Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

18. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

19. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia): Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

21. Kansas City Chiefs (projected trade with New England): Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah                                        Patriots send 21 and 127 to Kansas City for 29, 62, and 94

22. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas): Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

23. Arizona Cardinals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Forida

24. Dallas Cowboys: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

25. Buffalo Bills: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

26. Tennessee Titans: Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

28. Green Bay Packers: Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

29. New York Giants (projected trade with New England): George Pickens, WR, Georgia                                Giants send 36, 81, and a 2023 4th to New England for 29

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa

31. Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

32. Detroit Lions: Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M

Yes, I see Bill Belichick trading back twice to add additional picks in the second and third rounds.  The Patriots have several holes to fill on both sides of the ball - OL, WR, Edge, LB, and CB - and these two projected deals get them six picks between 36 and 94 to address those needs.  Adding speed and talent at receiver and on defense, as well as some big bodies to protect Mac Jones, will be critical.

Here's my  mock for those picks:

36. Jalen Pitre, CB, Baylor

54. Josh Paschal, Edge, Kentucky

62. Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

81. Brian Asamoah, LB, Oklahoma

85. Marcus Jones, CB, Houston

94. Kellen Diesch, OT, Arizona State

Week 15 Football Picks

PACKERS (-7.5) over Browns

CARDINALS (-2) over Colts

Lions (+7) over FALCONS

Ravens (+7.5) over BENGALS

VIKINGS (+3.5) over Rams

PATRIOTS (-2) over Bills (27-19 Patriots)

JETS (-1.5) over Jaguars

EAGLES (-10) over Giants

PANTHERS (+10) over Buccaneers 

Chargers (-10) over TEXANS

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Bears

Steelers (+10) over CHIEFS

RAIDERS (Pick) over Broncos

COWBOYS  (-10) over Football Team

SAINTS (+2.5) over Dolphins

Last Week: 8-8

This Week: 1-0

Season: 106-101-3